MLB Picks

Corbin Carroll is locked in at the plate right now, hitting .429 over the last week while piling up extra-base hits. The Diamondbacks star has cleared this line in six consecutive games and now faces Tyler Mahle, who has struggled badly on the road with an ERA above eight. Given Carroll’s current form and Mahle’s issues away from home, there’s strong value on Carroll continuing his hot streak.

The Chicago White Sox project as one of the best moneyline values on the board today at +133, with a fair price closer to -102. Years of losing have softened the market on Chicago, but THE BAT is extremely high on them in this spot. They grinded out a 2-1 win last night in Seattle behind a combined one-hitter and could catch a Seattle Mariners team looking ahead. Seattle has to pack up after a two-series homestand and travel to Kansas City for Thursday, while the White Sox stay on the road and remain on the West Coast. It’s a favorable schedule spot for Chicago, and Seattle could also be forced to navigate today without its closer and setup man after both relievers worked on back-to-back days.

Chris Sale has looked dominant all season and continues to pitch like one of the favorites for the NL Cy Young Award. The Braves ace owns a sub-2.00 ERA and has allowed one earned run or fewer in five of his last six starts. Coming off another scoreless outing, Sale now gets a matchup against a mediocre Marlins lineup that could struggle to generate much offense against him.

Recent meetings between these AL Central rivals have produced runs, and this matchup sets up similarly. Bibee has improved, but he’s still been less effective away from home, while Detroit scores over four runs per game at Comerica Park. Cleveland’s bats are also red-hot right now, averaging more than seven runs over the last three contests, making the Over appealing at this number.

Tonight’s matchup features two starters in outstanding form. Cam Schlittler has emerged as the early AL Cy Young frontrunner after allowing one earned run or fewer in eight of 10 starts, while Trey Yesavage enters with a stellar 1.40 ERA. In their 14 combined starts this season, only four have gone Over the total. Both offenses have also cooled off significantly against right-handed pitching, ranking 26th and 28th in OPS over the last two weeks.

The Milwaukee Brewers are trading as +103 underdogs in their NL Central matchup against the Chicago Cubs, and I’m hitting the button on Milwaukee as I price them closer to -120 favorites in this spot. Edward Cabrera is on the mound for the Cubs, and the Brewers lineup presents a real challenge for the right-hander because Milwaukee can stack as many as seven left-handed bats in the lineup. Not only will Cabrera’s curveball now be breaking into left-handed hitters, reducing some of its effectiveness, but the matchup could also make him hesitant to attack the strike zone consistently—and command has already been an issue for him. If Cabrera starts handing out free passes, it becomes a major problem against a Brewers lineup loaded with speed from top to bottom. Milwaukee can create a ton of pressure on the bases, and Cabrera has historically been slow to the plate.

Shohei Ohtani takes the mound on Wednesday after throwing seven scoreless innings against the Giants in his last start. That adds to the fact that his ERA sits at a sterling 0.82 through seven starts this season. He hasn't gotten much run support, but this Dodgers offense ranks third in runs per game, so the tide will turn soon enough.

Kurtz is climbing the AL MVP board and now sits as the No. 5 betting favorite at +2200. Over the last two weeks, he owns the third-fastest swing speed in baseball behind Junior Caminero and Jordan Walker, while also ranking inside the Top 20 in both ISO and slugging percentage. He’s coming off a 3-for-5 game in Anaheim and should get a full nine innings against some of the worst pitching in baseball. Jack Kochanowicz is a pitch-to-contact arm with poor BlastContact numbers and is coming off a three-home-run outing at home against the Los Angeles Dodgers. His bullpen is also a massive target, carrying the second-worst ERA in baseball over the last two weeks while dealing with closer issues. The Athletics piled up 15 hits yesterday, including six extra-base knocks. This fair price should be under +300.