Three big-time sluggers highlight my MLB player props home run analysis for tonight's action.
Pete Alonso starts things off with Kyle Schwarber joining him in elite company.
Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, August 15.
MLB home run props for today
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Pete Alonso
Kyle Schwarber
Home run prediction: Pete Alonso (+365)
Pete Alonso is tearing the cover off the baseball lately. The veteran has smacked three bombs over the last week, and he has a mind-boggling .435 ISO during his last six games. Alonso cannot be stopped, and his underlying numbers are also insane.
Alonso has a 73.7% hard-hit rate and 26.3% barrel rate during that span. He'll face Tampa Bay Rays lefty Ian Seymour tonight, who has allowed a 45.5% hard-hit rate in the last month and a 13.6% barrel rate.
I'm also loving the profile for Alonso against a Rays bullpen with an FIP over five lately while they've allowed 2.10 HR/9 in their last 25.2 frames.
Play this pick down to +300.
- Time: 6:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rays.TV, MASN
Home run prediction: Kyle Schwarber (+238)
How can we ignore the home run leader? Kyle Schwarber leads the big leagues with 37 bombs, and he has cracked four in his last six games while posting an ISO over .600. The hard-hit rate is otherworldly, and the barrel rate is just as ridiculous, sitting at 37.5% over the last week.
Schwarber will face a homer-prone starter tonight in Minnesota Twins lefty Connor Prielipp, who has allowed 2.61 HR/9 across his previous two appearances. Schwarber has also handled southpaws well enough this season, going deep 12 times against left-handed pitching.
He owns a 56.3% fly-ball rate over the last week.
Play this pick down to +200.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Twins.TV, NBC Sports Philadelphia
- HR picks: 17-86, -6.54 units
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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