Three big-time sluggers highlight my MLB player props home run analysis for tonight's action.
Pete Alonso starts things off, with Kyle Schwarber joining him in elite company.
Plus, I'll tell you why Jac Caglianone's bat will stay hot in my MLB picks and home run props for Saturday, Aug. 15.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
MLB home run props for today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Pete Alonso |
+365 |
 Kyle Schwarber |
+307 |
 Jac Caglianone |
+226 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +10572 |
Home run prediction: Pete Alonso (+365)
Pete Alonso is tearing the cover off the baseball lately. The veteran has smacked three bombs over the last week, and he has a mind-boggling .435 ISO during his last six games. Alonso cannot be stopped, and his underlying numbers are also insane.
Alonso has a 73.7% hard-hit rate and 26.3% barrel rate during that span. He'll face Tampa Bay Rays lefty Ian Seymour tonight, who has allowed a 45.5% hard-hit rate in the last month and a 13.6% barrel rate.
I'm also loving the profile for Alonso against a Rays bullpen with an FIP over five lately while they've allowed 2.10 HR/9 in their last 25.2 frames.
Play this pick down to +300.
- Time: 6:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rays.TV, MASN
Home run prediction: Kyle Schwarber (+307)
How can we ignore the home run leader? Kyle Schwarber leads the big leagues with 37 bombs, and he has cracked four in his last six games while posting an ISO over .600. The hard-hit rate is otherworldly, and the barrel rate is just as ridiculous, sitting at 37.5% over the last week.
Schwarber will face a homer-prone starter tonight in Minnesota Twins lefty Connor Prielipp, who has allowed 2.61 HR/9 across his previous two appearances. Schwarber has also handled southpaws well enough this season, going deep 12 times against left-handed pitching.
He owns a 56.3% fly-ball rate over the last week.
Play this pick down to +200.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Twins.TV, NBC Sports Philadelphia
Home run prediction: Jac Caglianone (+226)
Jac Caglianone is one of the most feared power hitters in baseball right now. The Kansas City Royals slugger has gone deep four times in his last six games, including two of his last four. Caglianone’s ISO over the last week sits at a ridiculous .583.
He also owns a 57.1% hard-hit rate and 23.8% barrel rate during that span. Caglianone will face left-hander Reid Detmers tonight, who has given up 1.80 HR/9 across his previous two outings. Caglianone has not had a ton of success against lefties, but his recent power profile is impossible to ignore.
The Los Angeles Angels’ bullpen is also allowing plenty of hard contact lately, giving the Royals slugger another path to leave the yard late.
Play this pick down to +200.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Royals.TV, ABTV
- HR picks: 17-86, -6.54 units
Best home run combo for August 15
| Pete Alonso |
Trade Now +10572 |
| Kyle Schwarber |
|
| Jac Caglianone |
Want more baseball parlays? Check out our MLB parlay picks page!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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