MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on July 7, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Tue, Jul 7 • 2:15 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Alec Burleson logo
Alec Burleson o0.5 Total RBIs (+228)
Projection 0.6
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Alec Burleson's batting average ability is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Alec Burleson is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today.. Among all stadiums, Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level on the schedule today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Hitting from the opposite that Jacob Misiorowski throws from, Alec Burleson will have an edge today.
Strikeouts Thrown
Jacob Misiorowski logo
Jacob Misiorowski u7.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-102)
Projection 6.9
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The St. Louis Cardinals (20.1 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 5th-least strikeout-prone group of batters on the slate today.. The #1 stadium in the league for suppressing strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Busch Stadium.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level on the schedule today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The St. Louis Cardinals have 6 bats in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage against Jacob Misiorowski in this game.. Playing on the road generally lessens pitcher metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jacob Misiorowski in today's game.
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Chicago Cubs logo CHC @ Baltimore Orioles logo BAL Tue, Jul 7 • 6:35 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Pete Alonso logo
Pete Alonso o1.5 Total Bases (+123)
Projection 1.99
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Pete Alonso projects as the 16th-best home run hitter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Alonso is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best park in the league for run-scoring.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 4th-best hitting conditions on the schedule today.. Batting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Pete Alonso will have the upper hand in today's game.
Total Bases
Dansby Swanson logo
Dansby Swanson o1.5 Total Bases (+175)
Projection 1.71
Best Odds
Pick made: 19 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 91st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best park in the league for run-scoring.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 4th-best hitting conditions on the schedule today.. Dansby Swanson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. The Baltimore Orioles outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst among every team today.
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Athletics Athletics logo ATH @ Detroit Tigers logo DET Tue, Jul 7 • 6:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Dillon Dingler logo
Dillon Dingler o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.77
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dillon Dingler in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.. Dillon Dingler is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. In the majors, Comerica Park has the 3rd-lowest average fence height.. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Dillon Dingler will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.
Strikeouts Thrown
J.T. Ginn logo
J.T. Ginn u5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-151)
Projection 4.56
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Shea Langeliers (the Athletics's expected catcher today) projects as a weak pitch framer.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The Detroit Tigers have 6 batters in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage against J.T. Ginn today, which is especially troublesome given his large platoon split.. Given that groundball hitters hold a notable edge over flyball pitchers, J.T. Ginn and his 48.6% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a tough spot today facing 2 opposing GB bats.
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Seattle Mariners logo SEA @ Miami Marlins logo MIA Tue, Jul 7 • 6:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Cal Raleigh logo
Cal Raleigh o0.5 Total RBIs (+171)
Projection 0.63
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Cal Raleigh as the game's 7th-best home run batter.. Cal Raleigh is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.. The switch-hitting Cal Raleigh will get to bat from his better side (0) today against Max Meyer.. Cal Raleigh has been unlucky this year, posting a .258 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .350 — a .092 difference.. Based on Statcast data, Cal Raleigh ranks in the 99th percentile for power per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 42.200.
Total RBIs
Dominic Canzone logo
Dominic Canzone o0.5 Total RBIs (+191)
Projection 0.53
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dominic Canzone in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Dominic Canzone has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (79% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Dominic Canzone will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Max Meyer in today's game.. Dominic Canzone hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38% — 75th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Dominic Canzone has seen a big gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.2-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 93.1-mph EV.
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Atlanta Braves logo ATL @ Pittsburgh Pirates logo PIT Tue, Jul 7 • 6:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Mike Yastrzemski logo
Mike Yastrzemski o0.5 Total Home Runs (+800)
Projection 0.14
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mike Yastrzemski in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. This game is expected to have the 3rd-highest humidity of all games on the slate today (78%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Mike Yastrzemski will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Paul Skenes in today's matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Mike Yastrzemski's true offensive talent to be a .330, implying that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .033 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .297 wOBA.
Total RBIs
Mike Yastrzemski logo
Mike Yastrzemski o0.5 Total RBIs (+327)
Projection 0.43
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mike Yastrzemski in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. This game is expected to have the 3rd-highest humidity of all games on the slate today (78%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Mike Yastrzemski will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Paul Skenes in today's matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Mike Yastrzemski's true offensive talent to be a .330, implying that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .033 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .297 wOBA.
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New York Yankees logo NYY @ Tampa Bay Rays logo TB Tue, Jul 7 • 6:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Paul Goldschmidt logo
Paul Goldschmidt o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection 1.87
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Paul Goldschmidt in the 81st percentile when estimating his batting average skill.. Paul Goldschmidt is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game.. The #3 venue in the majors for boosting home runs to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.. Hitting from the opposite that Ian Seymour throws from, Paul Goldschmidt will have the upper hand today.. Paul Goldschmidt has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Jasson Dominguez logo
Jasson Dominguez o1.5 Total Bases (+172)
Projection 1.6
Best Odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive ability, Jasson Dominguez ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jasson Dominguez is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.. The #3 venue in the majors for boosting home runs to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.. Tropicana Field has the 3rd-shallowest left field dimensions among all major league parks.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense grades out as the worst among every team today.
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Houston Astros logo HOU @ Washington Nationals logo WAS Tue, Jul 7 • 6:45 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Curtis Mead logo
Curtis Mead o0.5 Total RBIs (+183)
Projection 0.71
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Curtis Mead ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Curtis Mead is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Homers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Nationals Park has the 7th-shallowest among all major league stadiums.. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the 4th-highest humidity of all games on the slate today at 77%.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Curtis Mead will hold that advantage today.
Total Bases
Dylan Crews logo
Dylan Crews o1.5 Total Bases (+175)
Projection 1.56
Best Odds
Pick made: 28 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Dylan Crews is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game.. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the 4th-highest humidity of all games on the slate today at 77%.. Dylan Crews has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Dylan Crews will hold that advantage today.. In the past week, Dylan Crews's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.2-mph over the course of the season to 95.8-mph lately.
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Philadelphia Phillies logo PHI @ Cincinnati Reds logo CIN Tue, Jul 7 • 7:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Eugenio Suarez logo
Eugenio Suarez o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
Projection 1.61
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eugenio Suarez in the 96th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. Eugenio Suarez is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.. Great American Ball Park ranks as the #3 stadium in MLB for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Eugenio Suarez pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.7% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.
Total Bases
J.T. Realmuto logo
J.T. Realmuto o1.5 Total Bases (+147)
Projection 1.7
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
J.T. Realmuto's batting average ability is projected to be in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Great American Ball Park ranks as the #3 stadium in MLB for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. J.T. Realmuto will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andrew Abbott in today's game.. J.T. Realmuto has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
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Kansas City Royals logo KC @ New York Mets logo NYM Tue, Jul 7 • 7:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Carter Jensen logo
Carter Jensen u1.5 Total Bases (-200)
Projection 0.85
Best Odds
Pick made: 12 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Citi Field as the 8th-worst field in baseball for run-scoring.. Citi Field's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which generally leads to worse offense.. Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Carter Jensen today.. Over the past week, Carter Jensen's 14.3% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 37.5%.
Total Bases
Francisco Lindor logo
Francisco Lindor o1.5 Total Bases (+127)
Projection 1.88
Best Odds
Pick made: 14 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Francisco Lindor ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Francisco Lindor is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in the league.. This game is predicted to have the 2nd-highest humidity of the day (84%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Francisco Lindor will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
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Cleveland Guardians logo CLE @ Minnesota Twins logo MIN Tue, Jul 7 • 7:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Kyle Manzardo logo
Kyle Manzardo o0.5 Total RBIs (+181)
Projection 0.64
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Manzardo in the 93rd percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Kyle Manzardo is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation often leads to more offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the highest temperatures of the day at 88°.. Kyle Manzardo will have the handedness advantage against Taj Bradley in today's game.
Total Bases
Ryan Kreidler logo
Ryan Kreidler u1.5 Total Bases (-310)
Projection 0.57
Best Odds
Pick made: 26 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Kreidler in the 5th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.. Ryan Kreidler is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card today.. When starting against a lefty hurler this year, Ryan Kreidler has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 39% of the time.. Target Field profiles as the #23 park in the majors for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all major league stadiums, the 5th-tallest average fence height are at Target Field.
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Boston Red Sox logo BOS @ Chicago White Sox logo CHW Tue, Jul 7 • 7:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Braden Montgomery logo
Braden Montgomery o0.5 Total RBIs (+265)
Projection 0.38
Best Odds
Pick made: 25 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Braden Montgomery's BABIP skill is projected in the 94th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Guaranteed Rate Field projects as the #8 ballpark in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Braden Montgomery has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Extreme groundball hitters like Braden Montgomery are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Tolle.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Braden Montgomery will hold that advantage in today's game.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Braden Montgomery logo
Braden Montgomery o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+125)
Projection 2.13
Best Odds
Pick made: 25 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Colson Montgomery projects as the 15th-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Colson Montgomery is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game.. Guaranteed Rate Field projects as the #8 ballpark in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Colson Montgomery pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.1% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Colson Montgomery will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.
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Los Angeles Angels logo LAA @ Texas Rangers logo TEX Tue, Jul 7 • 8:05 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Alejandro Osuna logo
Alejandro Osuna u0.5 Total Hits (+145)
Projection 0.74
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
35% of the time that Alejandro Osuna has started against a right-handed pitcher this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.. The Globe Life Field roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this game -9° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Alejandro Osuna hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's game.. This season, Alejandro Osuna's Barrel% has decreased significantly, dropping from 6% last year to just 0% this year.. Alejandro Osuna's average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 87.6-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 82.8-mph over the past 7 days.
Total RBIs
Brandon Nimmo logo
Brandon Nimmo o0.5 Total RBIs (+195)
Projection 0.57
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Nimmo in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Brandon Nimmo is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. In Major League Baseball, Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Hitting from the opposite that Jose Soriano throws from, Brandon Nimmo will have the upper hand today.. The Los Angeles Angels infield defense projects as the weakest out of all the teams playing today.
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Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ @ San Diego Padres logo SD Tue, Jul 7 • 9:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Manny Machado logo
Manny Machado o0.5 Total RBIs (+168)
Projection 0.66
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 91st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Manny Machado is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all stadiums.. Petco Park has the 5th-shortest average fence height among all parks.. Manny Machado will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.
Total RBIs
Corbin Carroll logo
Corbin Carroll o0.5 Total RBIs (+150)
Projection 0.7
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Corbin Carroll in the 97th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Corbin Carroll is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Petco Park has the 5th-shortest average fence height among all parks.. Corbin Carroll will have the handedness advantage against Jhony Brito today.. Corbin Carroll has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 98.2-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 91.5-mph figure.
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Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ San Francisco Giants logo SF Tue, Jul 7 • 9:45 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Bryce Eldridge logo
Bryce Eldridge o0.5 Total RBIs (+243)
Projection 0.46
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryce Eldridge in the 89th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 18.8-mph in this contest, the best of the day for bats.. Batting from the opposite that Spencer Miles throws from, Bryce Eldridge will have an edge in today's matchup.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Bryce Eldridge will hold that advantage in today's game.. Bryce Eldridge has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92-mph to 95.7-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.
Total RBIs
Rafael Devers logo
Rafael Devers o0.5 Total RBIs (+191)
Projection 0.62
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run ability, Rafael Devers ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Rafael Devers is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 18.8-mph in this contest, the best of the day for bats.. Batting from the opposite that Spencer Miles throws from, Rafael Devers will have an edge in today's matchup.. Rafael Devers will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.
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Colorado Rockies logo COL @ Los Angeles Dodgers logo LAD Tue, Jul 7 • 10:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Andy Pages logo
Andy Pages o1.5 Total Bases (-103)
Projection 2.17
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andy Pages in the 90th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.. Andy Pages is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Dodger Stadium as the 2nd-best field in Major League Baseball for righty home runs.. Among all stadiums, Dodger Stadium's centerfield fences are the 9th-shallowest.. Among all major league parks, Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height.
Total Bases
Teoscar Hernandez logo
Teoscar Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+123)
Projection 2.01
Best Odds
Pick made: 22 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Teoscar Hernandez in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Among all major league parks, Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. Teoscar Hernandez will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.. Teoscar Hernandez has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90-mph to 96.1-mph in the past 7 days.. Compared to last year, Teoscar Hernandez has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 38.8% to 47.5% this season.
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Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Thu, Jul 23 • 5:15 PM ET
6 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Game Prop
St. Louis Cardinals logo o2.5 Team Total (-115)
Best Odds
Pick made: 11 days ago
Colby Marchio image
Colby Marchio
Contributor

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Earned Runs Allowed
Zac Gallen logo Zac Gallen o2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-141)
Best Odds
Pick made: 11 days ago
Colby Marchio image
Colby Marchio
Contributor

Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.

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Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ Chicago Cubs logo CHC Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
4 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Kazuma Okamoto logo Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Best Odds
Pick made: 15 days ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

3 LEG PARLAY
Dansby Swanson profile picture
Dansby Swanson u0.5 Total Hits
Total Hits
Dylan Cease profile picture
Dylan Cease o6.5 Strikeouts Thrown
Strikeouts Thrown
George Springer profile picture
George Springer o1.5 Total Bases
Total Bases
Bet now
Pick made: 15 days ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Swanson is just 1-for-6 against Cease in his career. Cease has electric stuff, leading the American League with 110 Ks, while ranking in the 97th percentile in K-rate. Springer is turning a corner with a 1.089 OPS over his last nine games.

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Atlanta Braves logo ATL @ Chicago White Sox logo CHW Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
5 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Atlanta Braves logo Chicago White Sox logo o8.5 (-105)
Pick made: 25 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.

Moneyline
Atlanta Braves logo ATL (-112)
Best Odds
Pick made: 25 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

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Boston Red Sox logo BOS @ New York Yankees logo NYY Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Boston Red Sox logo New York Yankees logo o8.5 (-110)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.

Moneyline
New York Yankees logo NYY (-135)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

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San Francisco Giants logo SF @ Atlanta Braves logo ATL Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
2 Expert Picks
Total
San Francisco Giants logo Atlanta Braves logo o7.5 (-116)
Pick made: 18 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and are fourth in xwOBA while averaging 5.5 runs per game across the past 30 days, and the Braves ranks ninth in wOBA against right-handed pitchers and third in overall xwOBA, so I think this total is too low.

Moneyline
San Francisco Giants logo SF (+124)
Best Odds
Pick made: 18 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.

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