MLB Picks

The Under has hit in three straight meetings, and the pitching matchup is solid. Sanchez is electric, and he clearly feeds off the Citizens Bank Park atmosphere. Although Webb has given up some runs lately, he’s still a guy who gives the Giants a respectable five or six innings each start. In fact, he’s gone at least six innings in each of his previous four starts.

I have to get a piece of the Baltimore Orioles offense in an elite hitting matchup. Lance McCullers Jr. is a top fade — his Blast Contact numbers are poor, his HR/FB rate sits near the bottom of the league, and he’s issued 12 walks over his last 18 innings while allowing 15 runs across his last three starts. He’s also starting Game 1 of a doubleheader and may be forced to eat innings. The wind is blowing out to right field, and McCullers has given up most of his home runs this year to left-handed bats. Samuel Basallo comes at a big price for a hitter producing extra-base damage, with two doubles and two home runs over his last three games. This projects as the best +EV home-run play on the slate, per Covers, with a fair price around +550. There should be runs in this game.

With Colorado sporting a 22nd-ranked wOBA and striking out at the second-highest clip against lefties, this is a solid bounce-back opportunity for Abbott. There’s no sugarcoating his poor start, but he’s set to improve on his unsustainable .351 BABIP and 63.9% strand rate, and his 8.3 K/9 and 22.2 K% across his first 75 career starts are well above his respective 5.97 and 14.3% marks to start 2026. Simply put, the Reds lefty has sunnier times ahead.

 Take me to square town, but Juan Soto has his swing locked in and draws a matchup with Miles Mikolas that belongs on any HR card. Soto’s swing speed and Blast Contact% over the last two weeks have been elite — he’s squaring everything up. This is a stat-padding spot against Mikolas, who has struggled and is likely to hand things over to a vulnerable Washington Nationals bullpen. In Mikolas’ last three starts, the Nats have allowed 29 total runs. Soto 2+ total bases at even money is also on the card. It’s the hottest bat against one of the softest matchups available.

The Athletics are trading as a -125 favorite on the moneyline at Bet99, but that price is too long—I make them closer to a -160 favorite in this spot. Sutter Health Park is a hitter-friendly environment where the ball carries, and the Athletics’ lineup is built to take advantage of it. That’s a major concern for Noah Cameron, a fly-ball-heavy pitcher who could be in trouble in these conditions. With power right-handed bats like Shea Langeliers in the heart of the lineup—players who thrive against left-handed pitching—allowing that many fly balls is a risky proposition. Add in favorable weather, with the wind blowing out and temperatures around 73 degrees in Sacramento, and this sets up as a strong spot for the Athletics’ offense.

One of these starting pitchers has strong name recognition, but the other is the one you should be backing. Brandon Young has been very effective this season at tunneling his secondary pitches off his four-seam fastball, making them look identical out of his hand. Against a veteran Astros lineup featuring José Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Yordan Álvarez, that approach is key. It disrupts timing and forces weak contact, leading to flyouts and ground balls. Houston’s biggest weakness is its pitching depth, particularly in the bullpen. On a day when they’ll need to cover two games, it’s hard not to like the Orioles in this spot. I make Baltimore closer to a -165 favorite, which gives us solid value at the current -125 price.

Cristopher Sanchez has allowed two runs or fewer in five of six starts, including against the Giants in early April. He has been flat-out dominant at home, allowing two or fewer in 18 consecutive starts. He is well-positioned to neuter a Giants offense that ranks dead last in runs, homers, and stolen bases.

The Toronto Blue Jays lineup is turning a corner. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is ripping the ball, Ernie Clement is going yard, George Springer is back, and Kazuma Okamoto is putting it together. There’s still some swing and miss with the rookie, but he’s adjusting. He owns the best Blast Contact numbers on the team and is squaring the ball up at a 54.5% clip over the last seven days. Pair that with Top-3 bat speed and a strong HR price, and he’s the target indoors vs. Bailey Ober and a bottom-tier Minnesota Twins bullpen. Minnesota doesn’t have a true closer right now and is using a three-man committee late. Eric Orze is part of that mix, just blew a save yesterday, and is likely unavailable. The fair price is around +500.