Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on April 21, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.
HOU
@
CLE
Tue, Apr 21 • 6:10 PM ET
o8.5 (+100)
Two possibly compromised starters, and two bullpens prone to the long ball. This game has runs written all over it. Messick boasts an xFIP that’s two runs higher than his ERA and is likely on a shorter leash. Weiss owns a 13.9% walk rate and has struggled to keep hitters off the bases all season. Neither bullpen is anything to trust. Cleveland’s bullpen allows 1.54 home runs per nine innings, while Houston’s relief corps gives up 1.89. With four of their previous six games going Over the total, we’ll back the bats in this one.
HOU (+125)
Ryan Weiss doesn't need to be perfect today. He just needs to give the Houston Astros enough solid innings before their offense takes over. The Astros have the second-best offense in baseball with a 124 wRC+, while the Cleveland Guardians check in at exactly league average with a 100 wRC+. That gap matters late in a game when both starters are likely on short leashes; Parker Messick takes the hill after 112 pitches Thursday, while Weiss hasn’t gone more than 3 2/3 frames. Back the better bats in this one.
CIN
@
TB
Tue, Apr 21 • 6:40 PM ET
STL
@
MIA
Tue, Apr 21 • 6:40 PM ET
MIL
@
DET
Tue, Apr 21 • 6:40 PM ET
NYY
@
BOS
Tue, Apr 21 • 6:45 PM ET
Ben Rice o1.5 Total Bases (+100)
ATL
@
WAS
Tue, Apr 21 • 6:45 PM ET
ATL (-138)
While both starting pitchers are off to solid starts, the gap between these offenses is significant, and Atlanta’s bullpen has been dominant. The Braves are 4-0 in Reynaldo Lopez’s outings, with Lopez allowing one earned run or fewer three times. He draws a Nationals lineup ranked 28th in OPS vs RHP over the last two weeks. Meanwhile, Foster Griffin faces a tough task against an Atlanta team that's 6-1 when facing lefty starters. The Braves are second in the majors in runs per game on the road.
MIN
@
NYM
Tue, Apr 21 • 7:10 PM ET
PHI
@
CHC
Tue, Apr 21 • 7:40 PM ET
BAL
@
KC
Tue, Apr 21 • 7:40 PM ET
YRFI/NRFI (No: +102)
The Orioles and Royals respectively rank third and last in percentage of games scoring a run in the first inning, so even with the wind forecasted to be howling out at Kauffman Stadium, I’m expecting starters Shane Baz and Kris Bubic to post zeros in the opening frame. Baltimore hasn’t scored an opening-inning run on the road all season, and Kansas City is the lowest-scoring team in the opening frame for the year and second-lowest scoring team overall, too.
Jeremiah Jackson o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
PIT
@
TEX
Tue, Apr 21 • 8:05 PM ET
SD
@
COL
Tue, Apr 21 • 8:40 PM ET
TOR
@
LAA
Tue, Apr 21 • 9:38 PM ET
YRFI/NRFI (Yes: -120)
The top of the Los Angeles lineup has teed off on lefties, and Toronto southpaw Patrick Corbin sports a 5.46 ERA and 5.68 xERA dating back to 2021. Angels starter Jack Kochanowicz’s 3.47 ERA is well below his 5.09 xERA and respective 6.81 and 5.89 marks across 111 innings in 2025.
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+790)
Jack Kochanowicz is another arm to target on Dinger Tuesday. His command has been poor this year (15 walks in 23+ innings), and he also struggles to keep the ball in the park, allowing plenty of hard contact with the 14th-worst Blast Contact% since last season. He does generate ground balls, but when hitters elevate, it often leaves the yard — he had the highest HR/FB rate among MLB starters last year. Let’s back a name that has already cashed for us this season in Kazuma Okamoto, who brings strong home run metrics, especially in Blast Contact% and Ideal Attack Angle%. There’s some swing-and-miss, but the matchup is elite, and the price is right, with a breakeven around +650. It’s also a Top-10 park for right-handed power, and the wind blowing out only helps.
CHW
@
AZ
Tue, Apr 21 • 9:40 PM ET
ATH
@
SEA
Tue, Apr 21 • 9:40 PM ET
LAD
@
SF
Tue, Apr 21 • 9:45 PM ET
With temperatures in the mid-50s, it should be a pitcher-friendly environment. Yamamoto and Roupp have been two of the better starting pitchers in the league and should thrive.
There are two quality bullpens behind them as well — L.A. ranks seventh in SIERA in relief (3.45) while San Francisco (3.55) isn’t far behind at ninth and has all of its top options well-rested and at the ready.
Landen Roupp has been superb with a 2.57 xERA and 2.21 FIP, and most of his underlying metrics are actually better than Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s.
The lineup is due for significant positive regression as the likes of Rafael Devers (.581 OPS), Jung Hoo Lee (.658), and Heliot Ramos (.686) will likely rebound after slow starts.
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