Full slate Tuesday is here, and my favorite plays include a fade of Los Angeles Angels starter Ryan Johnson.
Join me as I dive into why I'm also expecting big nights from Griffin Conine and Junior Caminero in my three favorite MLB player props for Aug. 11.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Ryan Johnson |
Over 2.5 earned runs | -118 |
 Griffin Conine |
Over 0.5 hits + runs + RBI | -143 |
 Junior Caminero |
Over 1.5 total bases | -127 |
Ryan Johnson Over 2.5 earned runs (-118)
I find it hard to overlook the amount of data pointing toward Los Angeles Angels right-hander Ryan Johnson getting shelled this evening against the Texas Rangers.
According to Batters-Box’s current-season dataset, Johnson draws a Rangers lineup featuring six elite-rated hitters and one with a strong rating, making Texas the highest-rated offense and the only elite-rated team on today’s slate.
The Angels starter has posted a 7.25 ERA, 6.34 xERA and 1.66 WHIP over his last five starts. During that span, opposing hitters have also generated a 14.5% barrel rate against him.
In 198 games with a rating of at least 0.445, the Rangers have scored 4+ runs 56.1% of the time dating back to 2024. While that number covers an entire game, the underlying data starts with the opposing starting pitcher.
Playable to -125.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ABTV, RSN
Griffin Conine Over 0.5 hits + runs + RBI (-143)
Miami Marlins outfielder and son of Mr. Marlin, Griffin Conine, enters Tuesday in a great spot against Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes.
The superstar pitcher has struggled a ton against left-handed hitters. Over the last 60 lefties Skenes has faced, they are generating a 52% hard-hit rate, 14% barrel rate, and 65.5% elevation rate. During that stretch, those lefties have posted a .386 xBA, .670 xSLG, and .399 wOBA. Over the last 30 he has faced, those numbers are even worse.
Conine has been swinging it well over his last 10 games, posting a .257 ISO, 45% hard-hit rate, 15% barrel rate, and 80% elevation rate.
The young outfielder enters with an elite rating on Batters-Box while also covering over 77% of Skenes' pitches. In 20 games with an elite rating this season, he has surpassed this prop 60% of the time.
Win or lose, this is a great bet. Play this to -150, or bet Conine's hit prop down to -120.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MIAM, SNP
Junior Caminero Over 1.5 total bases (-127)
Tampa Bay Rays slugger Junior Caminero is set to have himself an evening in Sacramento.
The superstar enters tonight with an elite rating on Batters-Box, while also covering over 60% of Athletics right-hander Mason Barnett’s pitch mix. Over his last 25 elite ratings on the road, Caminero has surpassed this prop 60% of the time.
Barnett has allowed a 50% hard-hit rate and 66.7% elevation rate to right-handed hitters at home this season. Over his last 60 batters faced, those hitters are producing a 44% hard-hit rate, 16.7% barrel rate and 66.7% elevation rate. They also own a .333 xBA, .559 xSLG and .278 ISO during that stretch.
Meanwhile, Caminero has posted a .632 SLG and .395 ISO, while generating a 57% hard-hit rate and 21.4% barrel rate over his last 10 games.
I'd play this down to -130 if you're willing to pay the juice, or bet his home run and double props individually.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: RAYS, NBCSCA
- Prop picks: 381-747, -19.9 Units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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