Full-slate Tuesday has arrived, and I have A LOT of thoughts on every game going down this evening.
Here are my MLB moneyline predictions for tonight's slate, and make sure to check out all of our MLB picks for Aug. 11!
MLB moneyline picks for Aug. 11
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Guardiansvs  Tigers |
-120 |
 Piratesvs  Marlins |
+106 |
 Cubsvs  Nationals |
-160 |
 Marinersvs  Yankees |
-122 |
 Red Soxvs  Blue Jays |
 +127 |
 Metsvs  Braves |
-122 |
 Redsvs  White Sox |
-147 |
 Oriolesvs  Twins |
+106 |
 Philliesvs  Cardinals |
+153 |
 Rangersvs  Angels |
-133 |
 Rockiesvs  Diamondbacks |
-167 |
 Brewersvs  Padres |
-130 |
 Raysvs  Athletics |
-163 |
 Astrosvs  Giants |
-183 |
 Royalsvs  Dodgers |
+245 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 8-11.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for Aug. 11
Guardians vs Tigers: Tigers (-120)
Tigers win probability: 55%
Sure, Tanner Bibee and Drew Anderson have been solid over their last few outings, but the Tigers’ offense has been on an absolute tear over their last 21 games, posting a 131 wRC+, .355 wOBA and .810 OPS.
Meanwhile, the inconsistent Guardians own a 101 wRC+, .314 wOBA and .125 ISO during that same stretch.
Take the red-hot team against the one that can never seem to get it together.
Pirates vs Marlins: Marlins (+106)
Marlins win probability: 48%
I’m shocked the Marlins aren’t bigger dogs here with Paul Skenes on the mound. However, Skenes has been pretty bad over his last five starts, sporting a 5.40 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. On top of that, he has allowed a 45.76% hard-hit rate and 12% barrel rate to opposing hitters.
With Eury Perez being lights out over his last five starts, the Marlins are a great look this evening.
Until Skenes turns it around, it’s Fade City, USA.
Cubs vs Nationals: Cubs (-160)
Cubs win probability: 62%
I don’t think I have it in me to back the Nationals with Jake Irvin on the mound this evening. The Nationals right-hander has posted some solid underlying metrics, but you and I both know it’s not going to last.
Meanwhile, Shota Imanaga has been lights out on the road this season, where he owns a 2.95 xERA and 0.98 WHIP.
The Cubs’ offense is still white hot, and I have no interest in stepping in front of that train.
Mariners vs Yankees: Yankees (-122)
Yankees win probability: 55%
Bryan Woo cannot pitch on the road. The Mariners right-hander owns a 6.71 road ERA away from T-Mobile Field in 2026.
Not to mention, Seattle has posted a 60 wRC+, .253 wOBA and .556 OPS over its last six games.
Yankees or nothing.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays: Red Sox (+127)
Red Sox win probability: 44%
Getting one of the hottest teams in baseball as an underdog feels like a gift right now.
I know it’s because of AL Cy Young frontrunner Dylan Cease, but those Blue Jays bats are still frozen solid. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have posted a 147 wRC+, .388 wOBA and .897 OPS over their last six games.
Give me the dog!
Mets vs Braves: Braves (-122)
Braves win probability: 55%
Nolan McLean has been pretty serviceable over his last five outings, but he is starting to regress, owning a 4.81 xERA and 1.61 WHIP over his last three starts.
On the other side, Martin Perez has recorded a 2.76 xERA and 0.87 WHIP over his last three starts. At home, the Braves left-hander has been nails.
Expect Atlanta to bounce back after last night’s loss.
Reds vs White Sox: White Sox (-147)
White Sox win probability: 60%
The Cincinnati Reds are walking into a hostile environment this evening.
Rate Field is going to be sold out, and the White Sox are giving out Pope hats in honor of Pope Leo. This could be one of the biggest games of the season based on turnout alone. That stadium is going to be rocking, and the White Sox will have the power of Leo on their side.
Oh, they also have Sean Burke on the mound, owning a 2.87 xERA and 33% strikeout rate over his last five starts.
White Sox or nothing.
Orioles vs Twins: Orioles (+106)
Orioles win probability: 48%
The battle of mid-starting pitchers will be going down at Target Field this evening, as both Brandon Young and Bailey Ober sport ERAs above 4.00 over their last three starts.
I want to back the hotter offense in this matchup, which happens to be the underdog.
The Orioles have a 115 wRC+, .763 OPS, and .222 ISO over their last six games, while the Twins have an 82 wRC+, .626 OPS, and .124 ISO over the same span.
Phillies vs Cardinals: Cardinals (+153)
Cardinals win probability: 40%
I do not endorse paying the Cristopher Sanchez tax this evening, especially when Andre Pallante has been outstanding over his last five starts, posting a 3.45 xERA and 1.21 WHIP.
Both offenses have been on fire, but the Cardinals are clearly seeing the ball much better right now. I’ll happily take them at +153.
Rangers vs Angels: Rangers (-133)
Rangers win probability: 57%
According to Batters-Box's current season database, Angels right-hander Ryan Johnson finds himself taking on the highest-rated offense on the day, featuring six elite-rated hitters and another with a strong rating.
Johnson has a 7.11 ERA, 5.06 xERA, and 1.60 WHIP on the year, and he has yet to put together a truly dominant start this season.
Trust the data and give me the Rangers.
Rockies vs Diamondbacks: Diamondbacks (-167)
Diamondbacks win probability: 63%
Just pay the juice. It’s Tomoyuki Sugano day for the Rockies, and there is no chance I’ll be backing him on the road in Arizona.
The seasoned sophomore owns a 5.47 ERA, 6.40 xERA and 1.35 WHIP, while allowing a 15.56% barrel rate on the road this season.
The Diamondbacks boast a 119 wRC+, .346 wOBA and .788 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, the Rockies have an 89 wRC+, a .146 ISO, and are generating only a 34% hard-hit rate during that stretch.
Arizona should roll tonight.
Brewers vs Padres: Brewers (-130)
Brewers win probability: 55%
Kyle Harrison has been too dominant over his last five starts for me to even think about backing Walker Buehler and the Padres.
Harrison is sporting a 1.86 xERA and 0.87 WHIP across those five starts, while Buehler comes in with a 5.06 ERA and 1.73 WHIP.
Both offenses have been very solid over the last week and are seeing the ball well, so I have to lean toward the more efficient arm.
Rays vs Athletics: Rays (-163)
Rays win probability: 62%
After the Rays’ explosive eighth inning on Monday, scoring eight runs to beat the Athletics 10-6, Oakland won't have the juice to turn things around tonight.
Mason Barnett takes the mound for the Athletics this evening, owning a sub-8.00 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over his last five starts.
The Rays are also on fire, posting a 123 wRC+, .780 OPS and .343 wOBA over their last six games. No one's stopping Tampa Bay right now.
Astros vs Giants: Astros (-183)
Astros win probability: 64%
Despite the heavy juice, backing the Astros is the right side here.
The Astros have not been great against left-handed pitching, but with Hunter Brown sporting a 2.45 xERA and 0.80 WHIP over his last three starts, they should find a way to sneak past an unmotivated Giants team.
Royals vs Dodgers: Royals (+245)
Royals win probability: 29%
I’m not going to back a guy who hasn’t pitched in months, especially with Blake Snell making his return this evening.
I don’t think the Dodgers should be a $2.51 favorite, especially with Michael Wacha pitching well on the road and over his last five starts.
Both offenses have been a bit cold over the last week, so why not take a chance on the big dog?!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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