MLB Picks

The Over has hit in four of the last five meetings between these clubs, and both pitchers have vulnerabilities. The Cardinals have previously hit Ashcraft well, while May is allowing hard contact at a career-worst rate. With Pittsburgh scoring 13 runs in the last two games and St. Louis’ bullpen posting a 4.53 ERA, runs should come from both sides.

Let’s hammer the getaway Under with the New York Mets heading to Miami on Friday and the Washington Nationals traveling to Atlanta tonight. The weather is working in the Under’s favor with 10-mph winds blowing in, 60-degree temperatures, and some projected rain in the mix. Neither team is likely eager to grind through a getaway-day game, and we could see some quick at-bats with both clubs having all of their high-leverage bullpen arms available. THE BAT also backs the Under with a fair price of -153 and just 7.56 projected runs.

Braves lefty Spender Strider has allowed a single run with a miniscule 27.3% hard-hit rate across his past two starts, and the Atlanta offense has also cooled the past two weeks with just 4.5 runs per game. So, with Miami righty Sandy Alcantara allowing two earned runs or fewer in seven of his 10 starts, I'm anticipating him doing just enough to keep this total Under the number.

Braydon Fisher will serve as the opener for the Toronto Blue Jays, with Spencer Miles expected to handle the bulk of the innings afterward. At +132, I’m willing to back those two arms against the New York Yankees. I price the Blue Jays closer to +105 underdogs in this spot, which is why I’m hitting the button. Toronto is expected to stack the lineup with eight right-handed bats against Carlos Rodón, who has returned from injury but hasn’t looked sharp, posting a 5.63 ERA through his first two starts while also being limited by a low pitch count. Rodón relies heavily on a fastball-slider combination, a pitch mix that has traditionally been vulnerable to right-handed power, even when he’s at his best—and right now, he clearly isn’t. The top of Toronto’s lineup, led by George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., is also very familiar with Rodón.

This is a strong spot for the A’s tonight against an Angels team that’s spiraling, dropping eight of its last nine games. Jose Soriano has also come back down to earth lately, giving up 12 earned runs across his last three starts. Oakland owns a massive edge offensively right now, ranking fourth in OPS over the last two weeks while the Angels sit near the bottom of the league. LA’s bullpen has been just as ugly, ranking 29th in both ERA and FIP during that stretch.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a great hitting matchup today as the Colorado Rockies are rolling with call-up Zach Agnos, who hasn’t started a game this year and will likely hand things off early to a Colorado bullpen that owns the second-worst ERA over the last two weeks and ranks 28th in HR/FB rate over that stretch. Corbin Carroll got the day off yesterday, but before that, he had ripped triples in back-to-back games and, three games ago, launched a pair of home runs against the Rockies and this bullpen. It’s also nice to get a Top-10 bat sitting right at +EV with a fair price around +360. Over the last two weeks, Carroll ranks eighth in BlastContact, third in slugging, and second in ISO. On this small slate, he projects as the third-most likely player to go deep behind only Aaron Judge and Mike Trout.