Folks, we want nothing but runs this evening. We might as well rename this the best YRFI predictions because I love three matchups where one offense is primed to generate runs early.
Check out my full MLB picks below.
Best YRFI predictions today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 / - Astros vs. Nationals YRFI |
-116 |
 / - Diamondbacks vs. Padres YRFI |
-121 |
 / - Rockies vs. Dodgers YRFI |
-142 |
Astros at Nationals: YRFI (-116)
Houston Astros right-hander Tatsuya Imai has been unbelievable in recent starts, sporting a strikeout rate near 40% across his last three outings. However, the underlying numbers still leave plenty of room for concern. During that stretch, he owns a 5.40 ERA and 4.14 xERA while allowing a 48% hard-hit rate and 17% barrel rate.
Through 12 starts, Imai has allowed 10 first-inning runs and issued 13 walks, resulting in an 8.18 first-inning ERA. Opposing hitters own a .279 BA, .456 OBP, and .851 OPS in the opening frame.
Now he draws one of baseball's best first-inning offenses in the Washington Nationals, a lineup that loves jumping out to early leads. Washington features six elite-rated bats and two more that grade out as strong, according to Batters-Box's current season dataset. Over their last 21 games, the Nationals own a 127 wRC+, .351 wOBA, and .804 OPS.
I do think the run comes in the bottom half of the first, but with Yordan Alvarez always capable of leaving the yard in the top half, I am comfortable backing an early run in this matchup.
- Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NATS, SCHN
Diamondbacks at Padres: YRFI (-121)
This is a complete full fade on one man, so if you want to get frisky and back the Padres to score in the first inning, I would not blame you. However, with Zac Gallen on the mound for the Arizona Diamondbacks this evening, I think this has to be an auto YRFI.
The San Diego Padres have been seeing the ball extremely well over the last week. They also bring six elite-rated bats and two more with strong ratings, according to Batters-Box's current season ratings.
Through 18 starts, Gallen has surrendered 15 earned runs in the first inning, good for a 7.50 first-inning ERA. Opposing hitters are slashing .342/.386/.579 with a .964 OPS in the opening frame.
At -121, it is a great price to back both offenses, but I do think the run comes from the Padres.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SDPA, ARID
Rockies at Dodgers: YRFI (-142)
A combined seven elite-rated hitters and three strongly rated bats, according to Batters-Box? Yeah, give me runs.
Most of those elite bats come from the Los Angeles Dodgers, who draw Colorado Rockies right-hander Michael Lorenzen. He owns the worst pitcher rating in the current Batters-Box dataset and has been a disaster out of the gate. Through 18 starts, Lorenzen has allowed 13 first-inning earned runs, good for a 6.50 first-inning ERA. Opponents are slashing .293/.349/.520 with an .869 OPS in the opening frame.
On the other side, Justin Wrobleski gets the ball for the Dodgers. He has allowed 7 first-inning earned runs through 14 starts, with opponents hitting .286 while posting a .339 OBP and .732 OPS.
Both offenses have been rolling over their last 21 games, each producing at least a 129 wRC+, .799 OPS, and .173 ISO.
There are simply too many quality bats in this matchup for someone not to at least get into scoring position. I would not play this any higher, but if you have the plums, I do not hate a shot at over 1.5.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SportsNet Los Angeles, COLR
- NRFI/YRFI picks: 11-4, +5.2 units
What is a NRFI prediction?
NRFI (No Run First Inning) and YRFI (Yes Run First Inning) picks add a thrilling twist to the start of an MLB game. A NRFI pick is a prediction that no runs will be scored in the first inning. You're predicting that the starting pitchers for both teams will get through the first inning without allowing any runs, whether by striking out batters, inducing ground balls, or through solid defensive play.
A YRFI pick is the exact opposite. You're predicting that at least one run will be scored in the first inning. In this case, you’re hoping for an early offensive burst such as a leadoff walk, a timely hit, or even a home run.
NRFI and YRFI picks add excitement to the early part of a game and offer immediate gratification for those looking for a quick resolution.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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