The Tampa Bay Rays are short home favorites against the New York Yankees, and I’m laying the small -116 moneyline price.
New York finally got a win Monday, but Ian Seymour’s swing-and-miss profile is a strong fit against a banged-up lineup that whiffs too much.
Tampa Bay’s contact-heavy offense also matches well against Will Warren, while the total leans Under.
Here are my Yankees vs Rays predictions and MLB picks for Tuesday, July 7.
Who will win Yankees vs Rays today: Rays (-116)
I’m backing the Tampa Bay Rays on the moneyline and would play it to -135.
The problem for New York Yankees starter Will Warren shows up when he faces low-whiff lineups. If Warren can’t create empty swings, traffic will be harder to escape, and Tampa Bay’s low 20% team whiff rate attacks that exact weakness.
Meanwhile, Ian Seymour gives the Rays the sharper counterpunch, posting a 29% whiff rate against a Yankees lineup that sits above 27%. Tampa Bay boasts the cleaner pitcher-to-lineup fit tonight.
COVERS INTEL: Tampa Bay owns just a 5.5% team barrel rate, well below the 8.0% MLB average, which increases the chances of a lower-scoring affair tonight.
Yankees vs Rays Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-131)
Seymour’s best trait attacks New York’s biggest offensive issue. The Yankees still carry power, but their high whiff rate is a problem against a starter generating the swing-and-miss stuff.
Tampa Bay can pressure Warren with contact, but this is not a pure slugging profile. Warren has allowed only a 7.2% barrel rate and a .397 xSLG, so the Rays may need sequencing instead of one-swing damage.
I make this closer to 7.7 runs and would play the Under to -152.
- ML/RL bets: 35-32, +5.77 units
- Over/Under bets: 41-28, +17.40 units
Yankees vs Rays odds
- Moneyline: Yankees +105 | Rays -116
- Run line: Yankees +1.5 (-200) | Rays -1.5 (+173)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+119) | Under 8.5 (-131)
Yankees vs Rays trend
The Under has cashed in three consecutive head-to-head meetings.
How to watch Yankees vs Rays and game info
| Location | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date | Tuesday, July 7, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES, Rays.TV |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Will Warren (7-3, 3.73 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher | Ian Seymour (5-1, 4.02 ERA) |
Yankees vs Rays latest injuries
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