MLB Picks

Cristopher Sanchez has allowed two runs or fewer in five of six starts, including against the Giants in early April. He has been flat-out dominant at home, allowing two or fewer in 18 consecutive starts. He is well-positioned to neuter a Giants offense that ranks dead last in runs, homers, and stolen bases.

Let’s double-dip on Tomoyuki Sugano and his trip to Great American Ball Park. I’ve already backed Elly De La Cruz in this matchup and am betting on the Colorado starter getting shelled. He gets squared up at a high rate, his fly balls leave the yard, and the wind is blowing out. He’s also coming off a lucky outing vs. the San Diego Padres where he didn’t allow a homer — the first time all year. Matt McLain is hitting out of the two-hole and should be priced about 100 points shorter. He has the second-longest odds among Cincinnati Reds hitters to go deep, but THE BAT projects him as the No. 3 most likely. McLain is four games removed from a two-homer game vs. the Detroit Tigers, and his 33% opposite-field fly-ball rate plays well with the short right-field dimensions at GABP, especially with 13 mph winds blowing out.

Cardinals starter Andre Pallante hits the mound with a 4.26 ERA, 4.91 xFIP and an alarming 18.7% blast-contact rate. Add him sporting negative pitch values on two of his three most frequent offerings, and I’m expecting the Pirates to rough up the righty. The Bucs sport a ninth-ranked on-base percentage against right-handed arms for the year, and their 45.2% hard-hit rate is second in baseball during their current 3-5 slide. I’m anticipating statistical correction kicking in at the dish against Pallante for the Pittsburgh lineup.

Soto and the Mets broke out at the dish Tuesday, and they’ll face another favorable matchup with Nationals righty Cade Cavalli allowing a healthy .409 wOBA to left-handed hitters and sporting a 5.73 ERA and 5.87 xFIP on the road. As long as Soto is priced incorrectly in this market, I’ll be betting and recommending him because the number should be much closer to -160 and still presents a slight edge at -150. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ildemaro Vargas in the 10th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. As a switch-hitter who is weaker from the 0 side of the plate, Ildemaro Vargas will be at a big disadvantage against Brandon Sproat and his large platoon split in this game.. In today's matchup, Ildemaro Vargas is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39.4% rate (97th percentile).. Extreme flyball batters like Ildemaro Vargas tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Brandon Sproat.. Among every team on the slate today, the 5th-best infield defense is that of the Milwaukee Brewers.

I love the underdog spot for a Royals team that’s finally breaking out and riding its first wave of momentum this season with four straight wins. The bats are scorching, leading MLB in OPS over the past week while putting up 27 runs across their last three games. That’s trouble for Luis Severino, who’s been getting hit hard in Sacramento, carrying over last year’s 6.01 home ERA. Meanwhile, Michael Wacha has allowed two ERs or fewer in four of five starts and is backed by a bullpen in top form.

It’s not getting more square than this, but Yordan Alvarez at +310 to go deep is still +EV, per Covers projections. The fair price for the best hitter in baseball to go yard sits closer to +270. Alvarez is a freak. He leads baseball in most standard and advanced metrics and hasn’t homered in four straight games — his longest drought of the year. He may also have this matchup circled, as Chris Bassitt has struggled against him. Alvarez is 5-for-22 with five home runs and a 1.598 OPS vs. Bassitt in his career. Winds are blowing out, though there is some rain risk that could ruin this great spot. Bassitt has also allowed all of his home runs this year to left-handed hitters.