The Red Sox have been on a hot streak that has not only turned around their season and gotten them into a wild-card spot, but it’s also reshaped the futures markets.
Key Takeaways
- The Red Sox won 15 consecutive games in July and are 18-3 over the month.
- Kalshi gives Boston a 68% chance to make the postseason.
- The team’s odds to win the AL went from +8,000 to +850 in five weeks.
The Red Sox, who are 18-3 in July, currently sit +850 at BetMGM to claim the AL pennant and are listed fourth in the operator's market behind the favored New York Yankees (+210), Tampa Bay Rays (+550), and Seattle Mariners (+550).
“The Red Sox season appeared to be over in June, but a historic 15-game winning streak has Boston back in contention,” BetMGM senior trader Matthew Rasp said. “Since the All-Star break, 50% of money wagered has been on the Red Sox to win the American League.”
Boston’s odds to win the World Series have gone from +15,000 to +2,200 over the last five weeks, though eight teams still have shorter odds and 10 have attracted more money in the World Series market.
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What a run
The Red Sox looked destined to be sellers at the Aug. 3 trade deadline before its July surge changed the outlook. Instead, Boston is seven games back in the AL East and up two games in the wild-card hunt, with the club now reportedly seeking a shortstop upgrade before the deadline.
Boston, which has the second-best run differential in the AL, has won three of its last four games heading into Tuesday’s contest against the Athletics and sits 55-50.
At prediction market platform Kalshi, the Red Sox have a 68% chance of making the postseason. Their chances were as low as 12% on July 3, the day the 15-game streak began.
The Red Sox opened the regular season at +750, the fifth-shortest odds to win the AL. That number spiked to +8,000 on June 22 when they were 31-45 after losing six of eight contests. They went 6-3 over the next nine games and were 37-48 on July 3.
That incredible win streak started with a 5-2 win over the Los Angeles Angels. Boston’s odds to win the AL were +4,000 on July 6. By July 20, the Red Sox were down to +1,000 after winning 14 consecutive games. They won the first of a doubleheader against the Baltimore Orioles on July 22 but lost the nightcap, ending the run. Boston is 3-2 since the streak ended.
Market battles
The Red Sox have taken 9.5% of the tickets and 7.6% of the handle in the AL winner market at BetMGM, but the Chicago White Sox are the biggest liability with odds that ballooned as high as +20,000 in May. Chicago is down to +1,200 and getting 5.7% of the bets and 4.1% of the money.
The AL Central-leading White Sox are also the second biggest liability in BetMGM’s World Series winner market, second only to the NL basement-dwelling Colorado Rockies.
The Los Angeles Dodgers, who own MLB's best record, are the most-bet team by tickets (11.8%) and handle (21.6%). Their odds have shortened from +350 when the World Series winner market opened to +170 this week.
The Yankees have also shortened from +800 to +550, and they are second with 9.1% of the bets and 9% of the money.
