This matchup profiles as lower scoring if both bullpens continue their recent form. The Tampa Bay Rays relief corps has been sharp with a 2.08 xERA over its last 24.2 innings, while the Chicago White Sox bullpen has also limited damage lately.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Stowers in the 96th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. The shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums are found in Citi Field.. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this contest to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Kyle Stowers will probably have an advantage against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the New York Mets only has 1 same-handed RP.

Weston Wilson's batting average skill is projected to be in the 10th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Weston Wilson is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in this game.. Built just 17 feet above sea level, T-Mobile Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the league, which often leads to lower offensive output.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the most suitable for pitching of all games on the slate today.. Weston Wilson has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 5.8% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eugenio Suarez in the 97th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Eugenio Suarez is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game.. The #5 field in baseball for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-highest humidity of all games on the slate at 85%.. Eugenio Suarez pulls many of his flyballs (38.6% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bryce Harper ranks as the 11th-best batter in Major League Baseball.. Bryce Harper is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #10 ballpark in the game for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Batting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Bryce Harper will have the upper hand in today's game.. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 5th-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.

Ronel Blanco bled homers over his first two starts, and the Texas Rangers slot Top-5 in both ISO and hard hit rate the past two weeks.

Jacob deGrom has not pitched as well on the road (4.33 ERA, 1.86 HR/9), and he ranks in the fifth percentile in hard contact allowed.

Expect homers to help push this Over again. Bet to -115.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 18-30 against teams over .500, and their struggles should continue Saturday afternoon.

Arizona generally hits lefties well but will have their hands full against Parker Messick. The young hurler has held opponents to a .205 average and allowed only 0.79 homers per nine innings.

Bet Cleveland to -175.

We saw just how ineffective these offenses can be with barrel suppression yesterday in a 2-0 Yankees win. I'm backing another low-scoring affair and would play the Under to 6, particularly considering the weather in store.

Rain and wind blowing in at Wrigley are not small variables, especially with the pitchers in mind.

Fried fits the weather. His 50% ground-ball rate and almost non-existent barrel rate make it difficult for the Cubbies to create power. Peterson’s overall profile is shakier, but he still owns a 49% ground-ball rate, and the weather helps cover some of his air-contact risk.

Reynaldo Lopez hasn't bounced back from shoulder trouble, and Miles Mikolas might be the worst regular starter in MLB. Lopez's FIP is nearly a full run worse than his ERA, and he's susceptible to the long ball. That's trouble against a Washington offense that leads MLB in OPS and home runs. The Nats have boosted their OPS by 124 points in the second half, hitting 45% over league average. In July, they had an .895 OPS and 146 OPS+. I'd take Washington money until about +140.

The #1 park in the league for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in the league, which often leads to higher offensive output.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest temperature on the schedule today at 94°.

When assessing his home run skill, Rafael Devers ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Rafael Devers is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game.. The 2nd-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks are found in Petco Park.. Among all major league stadiums, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Hitting from the opposite that Walker Buehler throws from, Rafael Devers will have the upper hand in today's game.

Boston has cashed the Under in six of Payton Tolle's last nine starts. The bullpen behind him has a 1.61 ERA since the Break, helping lead to a 2-8 O/U mark in its last 10. On the flip side, Yoshinobu Yamamoto has allowed no more than two earned runs in nine of his last 11 starts and can limit Boston (81 wRC+ against RHP in the last 14 days).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zach Neto in the 89th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. Zach Neto is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. In the league, Angel Stadium has the 2nd-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 4th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 85°.. Zach Neto will have the handedness advantage over Robert Gasser in today's game... and even better, Gasser has a large platoon split.

Framber Valdez' 52.7 GB% trails only Cristopher Sanchez among today’s starting pitchers.

That will help him sap power out of the Athletics offense, as will the absence of Shea Langeliers.

Jack Perkins ranks in the 11th percentile in GB%, which could be disastrous on a scorching hot day with the wind blowing out.

Bet Detroit to -155.

Swanson has been one of the worst hitters in baseball this season with a .177 batting average, while ranking in the second percentile in xBA. Additionally, his hitting profile does not match up well at all against Cease, who has elite swing-and-miss stuff. 

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.