The New York Yankees are heavy home favorites against the St. Louis Cardinals tonight, so I’m skipping the moneyline and taking the plus-money run line.
Cam Schlittler gives New York the clear edge in starting pitching, but the bigger betting angle is Michael McGreevy’s contact profile against a Yankees offense that still sits near the top of MLB in barrel rate and expected power.
Here are my Cardinals vs Yankees predictions and MLB picks for August 3.
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Who will win Cardinals vs Yankees today: Yankees -1.5 (+106)
I like this spot for the New York Yankees, and I’m playing their run line down to -105.
Michael McGreevy is a ground-ball-reliant pitcher, but when he does not get grounders, things get ugly quickly. That is a problem against New York.
The Yankees have been a low-groundball offense all season, and over the last 30 days, that rate is even lower at 39.9%, third-lowest in baseball. That should let McGreevy’s bottom-12% barrel rate and bottom-20% hard-hit rate show up early, giving New York a real path to a crooked number.
COVERS INTEL: McGreevy’s four-seamer has allowed a .572 xSLG with just a 13.7% whiff rate this season. That's a rough combo against even an injured Yankees lineupCardinals vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-116)
I’m playing the Over because the Yankees can do most of the lifting themselves. McGreevy’s season-long ERA looks respectable, but the underlying profile is much louder: a 5.66 xERA, .361 xwOBA allowed, and 10.5% barrel rate.
Cam Schlittler can still control the St. Louis Cardinals, but this total does not require the birds to explode. A Yankees-heavy scoring script gets this close quickly, and while Schlittler is still a Cy Young odds contender, the Cardinals producing a few runs is a completely reasonable expectation.
- ML/RL bets: 42-38, +7.58 units
- Over/Under bets: 45-36, +9.74 units
Cardinals vs Yankees weather
Cardinals vs Yankees odds
- Moneyline: Cardinals +188 | Yankees -209
- Run line: Cardinals +1.5 | Yankees -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Cardinals vs Yankees trend
The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 6 games (+6.25 Units / 86% ROI)
How to watch Cardinals vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Monday, August 3, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | Cardinals.TV, YES |
| Cardinals starting pitcher | Michael McGreevy (4-9, 3.57 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Cam Schlittler (10-6, 2.04 ERA) |
Cardinals vs Yankees latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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