MLB Picks

Kyle Schwarber is rarely someone I target on bases props because the value is almost never there. Instead, I prefer attacking his hit if the price dips below -170 or taking a shot on his plus money double and home run markets. Schwarber owns the fifth highest arsenal coverage among elite rated hitters on Batters-Box against Bubba Chandler, while carrying elite power numbers at home. He has also produced an 80% hard hit rate over his last 30 plate appearances against right handed pitching. If Schwarber squares one up tonight, it should be elevated, with a strong chance of leaving the yard.

The St. Louis Cardinals have plated just 13 runs over their last six games, and now have to deal with Martin Perez. 

He ranks in the 81st percentile in Pitcher Run Value and owns a 2.36 ERA over eight starts against teams outside of the Top-15 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching.

The Atlanta Braves are powerful but rank only 23rd in OBP against lefties. 

Play to -110.

Ty France draws one of my favorite home run matchups on the day. The Padres first baseman enters with an elite Batters-Box rating while covering nearly 90% of Matthew Boyd's pitch mix. France has crushed left handed pitching, batting .300 with a .520 SLG and .877 OPS over his last 90 at bats, while producing a 57% hard hit rate and a 10.8% barrel rate. Boyd has struggled to keep the ball on the ground against right handed hitters, allowing a 52.5% hard hit rate, 13% barrel rate, and 74% elevation rate over his last 30 batters faced. That profile sets France up for a legitimate long ball opportunity.

I am not giving up on Yordan Alvarez just yet. The Astros slugger draws another elite matchup on Batters-Box, covering 76.8% of Joe Ryan's pitch mix. While Ryan has pitched well recently, he is still allowing nearly a 50% hard hit rate over his last five starts, opening the door for Alvarez to capitalize. The results have not fully shown up, but Alvarez continues to barrel the baseball at an impressive rate. With Ryan relying heavily on his four-seam fastball and Alvarez posting elite expected numbers against the pitch, I am more than willing to run this matchup back one more time.

Hunter Goodman has been one of baseball's hottest hitters, making his over on total bases worth backing against Eury Perez. Goodman has posted a 33.33% barrel rate and 66.67% hard hit rate over his last five games, while matching up well against Perez's entire pitch mix with nearly 64% arsenal coverage. Perez's fastball is his lone above average offering, and Goodman has crushed fastballs all season. The Marlins right hander has also struggled to limit hard contact and barrels against right handed hitters. I like Goodman's chances to rack up extra bases, with his double and home run props offering additional value.

Shea Langeliers is back in a strong matchup against a vulnerable left hander, and the process remains intact despite recent results. He draws elite arsenal coverage against Justin Wrobleski, handling over 93% of the pitch mix, setting him up well in this spot. Wrobleski has struggled with hard contact in recent outings, allowing elevated barrel rates, consistent hard hit contact, and strong underlying metrics to right handed hitters over his last stretch. The contact profile includes high expected batting averages, slugging, and wOBA marks. The numbers continue to point towards a long ball. Run it back!

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.