No Sunday scaries here. Let's attack today's MLB slate with three of my favorite player props to help get your day started on the right foot.
Let's dive right into my three favorite MLB player props for Sunday, August 1.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Seth Lugo |
Over 4.5 strikeouts | +123 |
 Mickey Moniak |
Over 1.5 total bases | -146 |
 Gage Jump |
Over 2.5 earned runs | -138 |
Seth Lugo Over 4.5 strikeouts (+123)
The funniest part about loving this look is that Kansas City Royals right-hander Seth Lugo owns one of the lowest strikeout ratings on today's slate over on Batters-Box. On top of that, he has posted just a 13.7% strikeout rate over his last three starts. So why am I so excited about him going Over 4.5 strikeouts?
For starters, in 28 games with an average Batters-Box strikeout rating, Lugo has gone Under four strikeouts just 32% of the time. Over his last 10 starts with an average rating, he has cleared this number five times.
The real selling point, though, is Colorado's swing-happy lineup. Over the Colorado Rockies' last 60 at-bats against right-handed pitching, four hitters own strikeout rates above 23.3%, led by Hunter Goodman at 41.7%. Looking at their last 30 at-bats, five hitters are above that mark, with Goodman climbing to an eye-popping 46.7% strikeout rate.
Even at Coors Field, this is a strong look. I wouldn't lay any juice on this prop though, so be sure to shop around.
- Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rockies.TV, Royals.TV
Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 total bases (-146)
One Rockies hitter in a great spot this afternoon is Mickey Moniak. He covers 67.4% of Lugo's pitch mix and enters with an elite Batters-Box rating. In 19 elite-rated matchups, Moniak has gone over this prop 58% of the time.
Across his last 90 at-bats against right-handed pitching, Moniak has posted a .518 SLG, .807 OPS, and .343 wOBA while generating a 41.3% hard-hit rate and nearly an 8% barrel rate.
Lugo has also shown some vulnerability against left-handed hitters. Over the last 60 lefties he has faced, they have produced a .317 xBA, .608 xSLG, and .342 xwOBA against him.
With temperatures expected to reach triple digits in Denver today, I want plenty of exposure on Moniak. I'd play this down to -150. If the price gets any shorter, I'd rather split my exposure between a hit, double, and home run prop.
- Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rockies.TV, Royals.TV
Gage Jump Over 2.5 earned runs (-138)
The Detroit Tigers offense has been on an absolute tear over its last 21 games, posting a 120 wRC+, .340 wOBA, and .778 OPS. Over its last six road games, Detroit leads baseball in wRC+, wOBA, and OPS while ranking second in ISO.
On the other side, Athletics starter Gage Jump has struggled over his last five outings, posting a 6.26 ERA, 4.27 xERA, and 1.87 WHIP. Opposing hitters have generated a 49.2% hard-hit rate and a 9.5% barrel rate against him during that stretch. They also own a .335 xwOBA and a .297 ISO.
With the way this offense has been swinging the bats over the last few weeks, this is a great spot for the Tigers to erupt. That said, I wouldn't pay much more than the current price for this prop.
- Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBC Sports California, DSN
- Prop picks: 352-696, -20.4 Units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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