Let's get this Sunday off and running by cashing a few home run plays!
While you're at it, be sure to check out today's MLB player props and my favorite home run looks, headlined by Yordan Alvarez.
Here are my favorite MLB picks and home run props for August 2.
MLB home run props for today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Alec Burleson |
+358 |
 Junior Caminero |
+325 |
 Yordan Alvarez |
+238 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +6287 |
Home run prediction: Alec Burleson (+358)
The time has come once again to fade the old guy in Toronto, future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer. We're backing St. Louis Cardinals slugger Alec Burleson to leave the yard this afternoon.
Burleson owns an elite Batters-Box rating in this matchup while covering 100% of Scherzer's pitch mix.
Since the All-Star break, Burleson has been swinging one of the hottest bats in the Cardinals lineup. Across his last 60 at bats against right-handed pitching, he has posted a .370 batting average, .877 OPS, 50% hard-hit rate, and 13.6% barrel rate.
Meanwhile, Scherzer has been vulnerable against left-handed hitters. Over the last 60 lefties he has faced, he has allowed a 12.8% barrel rate and a 68.1% elevation rate. Those hitters have produced a .344 xBA, .603 xSLG, and .393 xwOBA against him.
Burleson is one of my favorite home run looks on today's slate.
- Time: 1:37 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CARD, Sportsnet
Home run prediction: Junior Caminero (+325)
Few hitters have been as dangerous against left handed pitching as Junior Caminero. Across his last 60 at bats versus southpaws, he has posted a .320 batting average, .580 SLG, .441 wOBA, and 1.013 OPS. During that stretch, he has also generated a nearly 50% hard-hit rate, 13.5% barrel rate, and an incredible 40% HR/FB rate.
The Tampa Bay Rays slugger draws Chicago White Sox left hander Anthony Kay, who has had major issues against right handed hitters. The last 60 righties he has faced have produced a staggering 20% barrel rate and 51.4% hard hit rate. They also own a .325 xBA, .532 xSLG, and .366 xwOBA against him.
Caminero enters Sunday with an elite Batters-Box rating, and he has homered in 23% of his 43 elite-rated matchups over the last three seasons. He also owns 61.3% arsenal coverage against Kay's pitch mix. Even against the two pitches he sees the least well, the changeup and sweeper, he owns an expected batting average of at least .308 against each.
I think he's in a fantastic spot to leave the yard this afternoon.
- Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, RAYS
Home run prediction: Yordan Alvarez (+238)
Yep, we're backing the big fella to leave the yard once again this afternoon.
Houston Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez enters Sunday with an elite Batters-Box rating while covering 100% of Kumar Rocker's pitch mix. In his 16 elite-rated games this season, Alvarez has homered 43.75% of the time.
The Texas Rangers starter has shown signs of improvement over his last few outings, but left-handed hitters continue to give him problems. The last 60 lefties he's faced have produced a .376 xBA, .657 xSLG, and .384 xwOBA against him, while he's generated just a 24.4% ground-ball rate.
Alvarez has been smoking the baseball against right handed pitching, producing nearly a 60% hard-hit rate and an 18% barrel rate over his last 60 plate appearances. I think he's in a great spot to go ya ya this afternoon.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SCHN, RSN
- HR picks: 90-328, +4.67 units
Best home run combo for August 2
| Alec Burleson |
Trade Now +6287 |
| Junior Caminero |
|
| Yordan Alvarez |
Want more baseball parlays? Check out our MLB parlay picks page!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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