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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 4, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.13 |
+113 
|
o8.0 -118 
|
+1.5 -180 
|
|
4.13 |
-123
|
u8.5 -120 
|
-1.5 +165 
|
Detroit
- Over is 5-0-1 in Mizes last 6 starts vs. American League Central.
- Under is 7-0 in Monteros last 7 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Mizes last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Cleveland
- Under is 5-0 in Allens last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
- Over is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 games following a loss.
- Under is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Allens last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Riley Greene o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
o0.5+230
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.93 |
-153
|
o9.5 -103
|
-1.5 +104
|
|
4.98 |
+143 
|
u9.5 -105
|
+1.5 -115
|
Milwaukee
- Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 road games.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Reds are 4-0 in Lowders last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
Top Projection
Eugenio Suarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+198)
o0.5+198
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.69 |
+101
|
o6.5 -115
|
+1.5 -210
|
|
3.89 |
-109
|
u7.0 -125
|
-1.5 +176
|
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0 in Sales last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Sales last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Braves last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 games as a road underdog.
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 7-0 in their last 7 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 5-0 in Sanchezs last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Phillies are 6-0 in Sanchezs last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+257)
o0.5+257
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.26 |
+170
|
o8.0 -125
|
+1.5 -130 
|
|
5.56 |
-190
|
u8.5 -106
|
-1.5 +115
|
LA Angels
- Under is 6-0 in Angels last 6 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 6-0 in Johnsons last 6 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 7-0-1 in Angels last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-0 in Johnsons last 6 starts on grass.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 5-0-1 in Pirates last 6 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 games a home underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Jones' last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.82 |
-115
|
o8.0 -110
|
-1.5 +140
|
|
4.30 |
+105
|
u8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -160 
|
Boston
- Over is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 on grass.
- Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 games as a favorite.
Baltimore
- Over is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Bazs last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 5-0 in Bazs last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Blaze Alexander u0.5 Total Hits (+185)
u0.5+200
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.59 |
-150 
|
o7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +120
|
|
3.57 |
+143
|
u8.0 -110
|
+1.5 -130
|
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 5-0 in Imanagas last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Imanagas last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 5-0 in Imanagas last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
Miami
- Marlins are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Marlins are 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 5-0 in Junks last 5 starts a home underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Junks last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Michael Busch o0.5 Total RBIs (+183)
o0.5+183
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.24 |
+166
|
o7.5 -112
|
+1.5 -132
|
|
5.45 |
-180
|
u7.5 -103
|
-1.5 +120
|
San Francisco
- Under is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Giants last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Giants are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.
NY Mets
- Under is 5-0-1 in McLeans last 6 starts vs. National League West.
- Under is 3-0-2 in McLeans last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Mets last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Mets last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Bryce Eldridge o0.5 Total RBIs (+214)
o0.5+230
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.20 |
+125
|
o7.5 -141
|
+1.5 -185
|
|
|
4.94 |
-135
|
u8.5 -125
|
-1.5 +160
|
Detroit
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Cleveland
- Over is 4-0 in Griffins last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 home games.
Top Projection
Jo Adell o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
o1.5+125
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.27 |
+102
|
o9.0 -105
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
5.44 |
-111
|
u9.5 -135
|
-1.5 +165
|
Minnesota
- Over is 6-0-1 in Matthews' last 7 starts as a road underdog.
- Twins are 6-0 in Matthews' last 6 starts on grass.
- Under is 6-1 in Twins last 7 vs. American League Central.
- Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Chi. White Sox
- White Sox are 7-0 in Feddes last 7 starts on grass.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Feddes last 5 starts as an underdog.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Feddes last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- White Sox are 8-0 in Feddes last 8 starts.
Top Projection
Ryan Jeffers o0.5 Total RBIs (+191)
o0.5+191
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.85 |
-104
|
o8.0 -125
|
-1.5 +158
|
|
4.59 |
-105
|
u8.5 -115
|
+1.5 -170
|
Tampa Bay
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 road games.
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 on grass.
- Rays are 7-0 in Martinezs last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Texas
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Rangers last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 10-1 in Rangers last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 5-0 in Rangers last 5 games following a win.
Top Projection
Jonathan Aranda o0.5 Total RBIs (+215)
o0.5+215
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.49 |
+116
|
o8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
4.49 |
-125
|
u9.0 -120
|
-1.5 +160
|
Arizona
- Over is 4-0-2 in Kellys last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Kellys last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Kellys last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Houston
- Astros are 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Astros last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Astros last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 1-0-3 in Astros last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Lars Nootbaar o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+135)
o1.5+135
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.17 |
+105
|
o9.5 -120
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
5.01 |
-115
|
u10.0 -114
|
-1.5 +140
|
Toronto
- Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 overall.
- Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Kansas City
- Over is 6-0-2 in Royals last 8 games a home underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Royals last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Royals are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a favorite.
- Royals are 9-1 in their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.52 |
-120
|
o11.5 +100
|
-1.5 +120
|
|
5.72 |
+115
|
u11.5 -115
|
+1.5 -135
|
St. Louis
- Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Cardinals last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Cardinals last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 8-0 in Cardinals last 8 games following a loss.
Colorado
- Under is 7-0 in Rockies last 7 home games.
- Under is 7-0 in Rockies last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Ezequiel Tovar o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
o1.5+180
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.58 |
-110
|
o7.5 +100
|
-1.5 +145
|
|
3.36 |
+110
|
u7.5 -115
|
+1.5 -170
|
NY Yankees
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 interleague games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 on grass.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Yankees last 6 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
San Diego
- Under is 4-0-1 in Padres last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Padres last 5 vs. American League East.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Top Projection
Trent Grisham o0.5 Total RBIs (+255)
o0.5+255
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.48 |
+253
|
o8.0 -125
|
+2.0 -124
|
|
4.91 |
-280
|
u8.5 -115
|
-2.0 -104
|
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 7-1 in Nationals last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Nationals last 6 games as an underdog.
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 6-0 in Snells last 6 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
- Dodgers are 5-1 in Snells last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
Top Projection
Dylan Crews o0.5 Total RBIs (+300)
o0.5+300
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.23 |
+200
|
o5.0 -481
|
+1.5 -115
|
|
4.94 |
-210
|
u7.5 -122
|
-1.5 +105
|
Athletics
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 road games.
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 vs. American League West.
- Over is 6-0-1 in last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Seattle
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 overall.
- Mariners are 4-0 in Gilberts last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Gilberts last 4 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Mariners are 0-4 in their last 4 home games.
Top Projection
Cal Raleigh o0.5 Total RBIs (+158)
o0.5+158
DET
@
CLE
Fri, Sep 4 • 2:10 PM ET
Total
u8.5 (-121)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
Not only is Montero having one of the best years of his career and is in a great matchup against Cleveland, but the trends are on our side, too. The Under is 7-0 in Montero's last seven starts as a road underdog, and you shouldn't expect Cleveland to smudge that perfect mark, either. It helps us here that the Guardians are the worst-hitting team with runners in scoring position in the big leagues, owning just a .682 OPS in that situation this season. All the numbers point toward the Under here.
Moneyline
DET (+119)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
I'm giving the Detroit Tigers the benefit of the doubt in this one, with Keider Montero historically finding success against this Guardians lineup. He's limited Cleveland to a .169 xBA and .223 xwOBA over nearly 80 plate appearances and is going up against a team that owns just a .682 OPS with runners in scoring position - the worst mark in the majors. That'll play today. On the other side, the Tigers have beat up on Logan Allen, registering a .355 average in 38 at-bats. This includes a 5-for-8 mark from Spencer Torkelson. If Detroit is scoring, he's probably at the center of it. The dogs are barking.
MIL
@
CIN
Fri, Sep 4 • 6:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jake Bauers o0.5 Total Home Runs (+335)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Milwaukee’s leader in barrel rate against Lowder’s pitch mix this season is…Jake Bauers!
The veteran lefty profiles amazingly well, generating barrels at nearly a 15% clip while posting a healthy .231 ISO to boot.
Bauers also owns a magnificent track record when facing Rhett Lowder, going 5-for-8 with a pair of homers.
Total
o9.5 (-107)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Rhett Lowder’s ERA sits at 8.13 when isolating seven matchups against teams in the Top-10 in OBP and xwOBA vs. righties.
That includes two starts against the Milwaukee Brewers, in which Lowder combined to allow nine runs in just over 10 innings of work.
Drohan owns a 4.70 xERA the past month and the Cincinnati Reds do possess real power.
Play to 53%.
ATL
@
PHI
Fri, Sep 4 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Kyle Schwarber o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Kyle Schwarber is hitting a respectable .263 against Chris Sale. More importantly, he has generated real power with a pair of home runs and a triple.
Sale attacks left-handed hitters with sliders, sinkers, and four-seams. Schwarber hasn’t taken a lefty yard on the slider this season but owns ISOs of .255 and .404 against sinkers and four-seamers.
Total
u6.5 (+109)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Chris Sale posted a 2.60 xERA the past month while allowing just three barrels in 27 innings of work. It’s almost impossible to square him up.
Cristopher Sanchez is sporting a 2.51 FIP in Philadelphia, and conceded two or less in 14 of 16 starts – including a zero against the Braves.
Play to 52%.
LAA
@
PIT
Fri, Sep 4 • 6:45 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Brandon Lowe o0.5 Total Home Runs (+410)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Lowe has hit 49 of his 60 homers with a massive .263 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past two years, and Angels starter Ryan Johnson has allowed a healthy .193 mark to left-handed hitters. Johnson checks in with a confidence-shattering 5.53 xERA, league-high 5.54 xFIP, too.
Total
o8.5 (+100)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Angels starter Ryan Johnson sports a confidence-shattering 5.53 xERA, league-high 5.54 xFIP and pedestrian 16.5 strikeout percentage, so with the Pirates ranking first in the majors in wOBA against righties and overall wOBAcon, I'm aniticipating Pittsburgh having a big night at the dish. The Angels will only need to chip in to send this total Over the number, and Pirates righy Jared Jones have allowed three or more runs in four of his past six starts.
BOS
@
BAL
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Jackson Holliday o1.5 Total Bases (+200)
Projection 1.51
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 88th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Jackson Holliday is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level of the day at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Jackson Holliday will hold that advantage in today's game.
Total Hits
Blaze Alexander u0.5 Total Hits (+190)
Projection 0.83
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
CHC
@
MIA
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Michael Busch o0.5 Total Home Runs (+575)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
There’s been a considerable dip in Michael Busch’s ISO against righties this season. He posted a rock-solid .245 mark across the past two seasons but is all the way down to a .141 ISO in 2026. So, with Miami righty Janson Junk allowing a healthy 16.7 blast-contact percentage at home, this is a long number for Busch to cash in on statistical correction and leave the yard tonight.
Total
u8.5 (-126)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
The Miami Marlins rank 27th in xwOBA and 25th in ISO over the past 30 days, while also checking in 20th in wOBA against lefties for the season. On top of that, Miami has also played to the Under in 26 of their last 40 home games (+11.70 Units / 27% ROI). This is also a potential letdown spot for Chicago following the split of a key, divisional series against the Milwaukee Brewers, in which the Cubs scattered just 11 runs across the final three games.
SF
@
NYM
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Francisco Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (+210)
Projection 1.5
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Alvarez in the 91st percentile when estimating his home run skill.. Francisco Alvarez will hold the platoon advantage over Matt Wilkinson in today's matchup... and moreover, Wilkinson has a large platoon split.. Francisco Alvarez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's shallowest CF fences today.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Francisco Alvarez will hold that advantage in today's game.
Total Bases
Francisco Lindor o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection 2.07
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive talent, Francisco Lindor ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Francisco Lindor is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. The switch-hitting Francisco Lindor will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Matt Wilkinson... and even better, Wilkinson has a large platoon split.. Francisco Lindor pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.5% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Francisco Lindor will hold that advantage in today's game.
DET
@
CLE
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:15 PM ET
Total RBIs
Spencer Torkelson o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.47
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his home run ability, Spencer Torkelson ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #2 park in MLB for boosting BABIP to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Spencer Torkelson will hold the platoon advantage over Foster Griffin in today's game.. Spencer Torkelson pulls many of his flyballs (40.2% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest LF fences today.
Total RBIs
Jo Adell o0.5 Total RBIs (+125)
Projection 0.78
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jo Adell in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his home run skill.. Jo Adell is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game.. The #2 park in MLB for boosting BABIP to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. The 2nd-shallowest left field dimensions among all major league parks are found in Progressive Field.. Given Andrew Sears's large platoon split, Jo Adell will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game.
MIN
@
CHW
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:40 PM ET
Earned Runs Allowed
Zebby Matthews u2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+104)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Zebby Matthews is rolling, staying under 2.5 earned runs in three straight outings while posting a 1.92 FIP over his last two appearances. He has avoided walks and homers, and now faces a White Sox lineup with a 66 wRC+ recently.
Total Bases
Colson Montgomery o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.84
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Colson Montgomery projects as the 15th-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #6 ballpark in MLB for boosting offensive stats to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 4th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 87°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this game, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Hitting from the opposite that Zebby Matthews throws from, Colson Montgomery will have an advantage today.
TB
@
TEX
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:05 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Trevor Williams u1.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-120)
Projection 1.44
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Trevor Williams is projected to throw 34 pitches today by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the least of all pitchers today.. According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Tampa Bay Rays with a 18.2% underlying K%.. According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Danny Jansen (the Rangers's expected catcher in today's game) projects as a weak pitch framer.. As a result of his huge platoon split, Trevor Williams will be in a tough position squaring off against 7 bats in the projected offense of opposing handedness in today's game.
Total Bases
Wyatt Langford o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.68
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wyatt Langford in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. Wyatt Langford is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Among all stadiums, Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense profiles as the worst out of all the teams today.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Wyatt Langford will hold that advantage in today's game.
AZ
@
HOU
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Hits
Isaac Paredes u0.5 Total Hits (+160)
Projection 0.81
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Isaac Paredes's BABIP ability is projected in the 2nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #4 ballpark in baseball for suppressing batting average to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.. Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which generally leads to lower offensive output.. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest -10° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching.. Merrill Kelly will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Isaac Paredes in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Corbin Carroll o1.5 Total Bases (+117)
Projection 1.78
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Corbin Carroll projects as the 20th-best hitter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Corbin Carroll is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. Hitting from the opposite that Cristian Javier throws from, Corbin Carroll will have an advantage in today's matchup.. The Houston Astros infield defense grades out as the worst among every team playing today.
TOR
@
KC
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jac Caglianone o0.5 Total Home Runs (+344)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Carter Jensen and Jac Caglianone both stand out in a strong matchup for the Royals, making it nearly impossible to choose just one. Kansas City’s young power hitters boast one of the highest matchup ratings on the slate while covering nearly 100% of Jameson Taillon’s pitch mix. Caglianone has also made the most of his elite Batters-Box ratings, leaving the yard 22% of the time across 30 such ratings this season. Over his last 10 games, the big fella has posted a .512 SLG and .186 ISO, while generating a 50% hard-hit rate and 10% barrel rate.
Total Home Runs
Carter Jensen o0.5 Total Home Runs (+388)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Carter Jensen finds himself in an appealing spot against Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Jameson Taillon, who owns the worst rating among pitchers in Batters-Box’s current-season dataset. Jensen also boasts the third-highest matchup rating, trailing only Yordan Alvarez and teammate Jac Caglianone. The Royals slugger has been crushing the ball over his last 10 games, posting a .914 SLG, .543 ISO, 63% hard-hit rate and 22.2% barrel rate. Taillon has struggled against left-handed hitters, allowing a 14.3% barrel rate and 71.4% elevation rate over his last 60 lefties. That combination gives Jensen plenty of home run upside.
STL
@
COL
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jordan Walker o0.5 Total Home Runs (+307)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Jordan Walker is an appealing power-hitting option at Coors Field, especially with his price sitting around 24%. The St. Louis Cardinals slugger has been making plenty of hard contact against right-handed pitching, posting a .483 SLG and .207 ISO over his last 30 at-bats. He has also recorded a 61.5% hard-hit rate and 11.5% barrel rate over his last 10 games, while keeping his ground-ball rate at just 30%. Walker draws Colorado right-hander Ryan Feltner, who has allowed a barrel rate over 15%, 4.05 HR/9 and a .720 SLG in his last three home starts.
Total RBIs
Ezequiel Tovar o0.5 Total RBIs (+202)
Projection 0.53
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The #1 park in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 88°.. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Ezequiel Tovar will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
NYY
@
SD
Fri, Sep 4 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Trent Grisham o0.5 Total Home Runs (+510)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
Trent Grisham hasn't shown his power stroke in a handful of weeks, but he's in a good spot against Buehler to launch one tonight. Not only does he have two career homers against him, but Buehler has been missing his spots recently, allowing three bombs over his last two starts. Grisham will look to sit on Buehler's changeup, a pitch he's given up five homers on this year. Let's fire him up with confidence.
Total
u7.5 (-121)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
For as good as Fried has been, Buehler actually has a good history against the Yankees, striking them out at a 30% clip while limiting them to a .229 xBA. I just don't see him outdueling Fried in this one, especially since the Padres own just a .691 OPS against lefties. The trends are on our side in this one, too, as both teams are a top-six Under team in baseball, hitting at a 54% clip or better this season.
WAS
@
LAD
Fri, Sep 4 • 10:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Daylen Lile o1.5 Total Bases (+250)
Projection 1.24
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Daylen Lile in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Dodger Stadium as the best venue in the majors for LHB home runs.. In the league, Dodger Stadium's CF dimensions are the 9th-shallowest.. In Major League Baseball, Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 4th-best of the day for batters.
Total Bases
Andres Chaparro u1.5 Total Bases (-330)
Projection 0.54
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Andres Chaparro's BABIP talent is projected in the 15th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Andres Chaparro in today's game.
ATH
@
SEA
Fri, Sep 4 • 10:10 PM ET
Total
u7.5 (-126)
Nick Galaida
Betting Analyst
Logan Gilbert owns a 4.54 FIP at T-Mobile Park in 2026, but much of his struggles have been due to an inability to keep the ball in the yard. Cooler temperatures in Seattle this evening should help mitigate that issue. The Athletics offense is a good matchup for Gilbert, too, ranking only 14th in ISO and 19th in home runs against right-handed pitching since the beginning of August. If the bullpens for the Athletics and Mariners can avoid a late-inning meltdown, runs are likely to be at a premium.
Moneyline
SEA (-209)
Nick Galaida
Betting Analyst
Kade Morris has struggled to a 10.60 FIP and 2.85 WHIP against left-handed batters in 2026. Tonight, the Seattle Mariners are likely to have seven lefties in their lineup against Morris. Behind Morris, the Athletics’ arm barn isn’t in great shape after using Hogan Harris, Luis Medina, and Scott Blewett twice each in the last three days. The A's offense has been underwhelming against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days, ranking 16th in wRC+.
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You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
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Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
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MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
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