MLB Picks

Robert Gasser has a sterling .186 xBA and holds the opposition to a 29.0% hard-hit rate. Combine that with Bryce Elder’s ability to avoid hard contact, and we could be in for a well-pitched game despite the quality of these offenses. The first two games of this series ended with totals of seven runs or less, and I like the Under again in today’s game as long as the total stays at 8.5.

James Wood ranks among the top percentile in the majors in xSLG, average exit velocity, and barrel %, so it’s no surprise how often he’s going yard. Rays starter Nick Martinez has given up 1.7 HR/9 over his last three appearances, while the team’s bullpen has allowed 47 dingers – second most among all clubs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Colson Montgomery as MLB's 17th-best home run batter.. Colson Montgomery is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Colson Montgomery will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Keider Montero today.. Colson Montgomery has a ton of pop (98th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (30.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Keider Montero has a pitch-to-contact profile (8th percentile K%) — great news for Montgomery.

Bazzana is red-hot, hitting .375 over his last seven games while carrying a strong .845 OPS on the season. He has also excelled against right-handed pitching, batting .327. Teng is a favorable target, carrying a -6 Run Value on his fastball while allowing lefties to slug .592 against his changeup.  With a disciplined 22.2% chase rate, Bazzana should force Teng into the zone and get pitches he can drive for extra bases to +100. 

 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jac Caglianone in the 82nd percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Jac Caglianone is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.. This game is predicted to have the most humidity on the slate (83%); there is a small yet noteworthy link with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Given Dustin May's large platoon split, Jac Caglianone will have an enormous advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup.. Jac Caglianone will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Nimmo in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Brandon Nimmo is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.. Hitting from the opposite that Lucas Giolito throws from, Brandon Nimmo will have an advantage in today's game.. Brandon Nimmo will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Brandon Lowe has already launched 18 home runs while posting an .842 OPS this season, and his underlying metrics remain strong, ranking in the 79th percentile in Barrel Rate and the 83rd percentile in expected slugging percentage. Michael Lorenzen has struggled badly in 2026, carrying a 7.13 ERA and 5.60 xERA while allowing opponents to post a .478 expected slugging percentage.  His four-seam fastball, changeup, and cutter all carry negative Run Values, giving a power hitter like Lowe multiple pitches he can punish.

 

Nick Kurtz projects as the 7th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Nick Kurtz is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 95°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The Los Angeles Angels infield defense profiles as the weakest out of all the teams in action today.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Nick Kurtz will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Cal Raleigh as baseball's 7th-best home run batter.. Cal Raleigh is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.. Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (43.3% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.. Cal Raleigh will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Brandon Young carries a 4.32 xERA with a modest 16.6% strikeout rate, while opponents are batting .389 and slugging .528 against his sinker. Freeman has crushed sinkers this season, boasting a .340 wOBA with a .404 slugging percentage and a +9 Run Value against four-seamers, making him a strong candidate to cash this total bases prop to -110. 

 

The New York Mets rank 29th in OBP and tied for 23rd in runs per game. It'll be tough sledding against Zack Wheeler.

The Philadelphia Phillies have struggled with lefties for much of the year, hitting just .223 and ranking 23rd in wOBA.

The Mets also have a very rested bullpen behind David Peterson so they’ll be well-equipped to put out fires as they arise.

Play to -115.

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.