Full slate Tuesday is here!
Let's get into my three favorite home run props and predictions from tonight's MLB slate, highlighted by Shohei Ohtani and Drake Baldwin.
Here are my favorite MLB picks for August 4.
MLB home run props for today
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Shohei Ohtani 
Drake Baldwin
Home run prediction: Shohei Ohtani (+226)
The great one, Shohei Ohtani, finds himself in another great spot against Chicago Cubs right-hander Javier Assad. While Assad has been solid over his last five starts, he's continued to struggle against left-handed hitters.
Across the last 60 left-handed batters he's faced, Assad owns a 4.86 ERA while allowing a 41% hard-hit rate and 16% barrel rate. Those hitters have also produced a .363 xBA, .638 xSLG, and .356 xwOBA.
Ohtani, meanwhile, has been scorching hot. Over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching, he's generated a hard-hit rate north of 72%. He also enters with an elite Batters-Box rating, covering 86.7% of Assad's arsenal.
The trends are just as impressive. Across 328 elite-rated games over the last three seasons, Ohtani has homered in nearly 30% of them.
With the clock ticking and the market always backing Ohtani to go deep, grab this number while it's still available. I wouldn't play it below +200.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: TBS
Home run prediction: Drake Baldwin (+325)
The seventh-highest rated bat of the day on Batters-Box is Atlanta Braves young slugger Drake Baldwin.
The Atlanta catcher enters Tuesday with 90% coverage against Ryan Gusto's pitch mix. The Miami Marlins right hander has been struggling lately, posting a 6.10 ERA while allowing a 51.61% hard-hit rate over his last three starts.
Against the last 60 left-handed hitters he's faced, Gusto has allowed a 50% hard-hit rate and just a 35.7% ground-ball rate. Those hitters have also produced a .345 xBA, .489 xSLG, and .365 xwOBA.
Baldwin, meanwhile, has been on fire. Over his last 30 at bats against right handed pitching, he's posted a .925 OPS and .417 wOBA while generating a 63.2% hard-hit rate and 15.8% barrel rate.
So far this season, Baldwin has homered in 23% of his 13 elite-rated games. I think this prop is playable down to +300.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BravesVsn, MIAM
- HR picks: 90-334, +4.7 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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