MLB Picks

Okamoto hits the ball harder than any other Blue Jays player in the lineup, with a 50% hard-hit rate, a .479 slugging rate, and a team-high 19 home runs this season. He’s been swinging the bat extremely well over his last eight games, too, with four home runs in that stretch, a 57% hard-hit rate, and a 259 WRC+. However, it’s a bullpen day for the Rangers. Without knowing Okamoto’s exact pitching matchup throughout the game, I’ll make this just a half-unit wager.

New York had Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto both in the lineup for just the 10th time this season and still only managed one run, the fifth time in their losing streak they've scored three or fewer. They're 29th in MLB in OPS. The Phillies start journeyman Alan Rangel, who looked strong in two bullpen outings and was an effective starter in Triple-A. His stuff isn't overwhelming, but he avoids solid contact. Philly also has the bullpen ready after only needing them for two innings and 28 pitches on Friday. They have a 2.39 ERA and 0.79 WHIP over the last three.

Junior Caminero enters as one of baseball's hottest power hitters after launching five home runs over his last seven games. His 61.9% hard-hit rate and 23.8% barrel rate highlight the quality of his contact, making the rookie a dangerous matchup for Arizona starter Jose Cabrera in just his second MLB appearance.

David Peterson has allowed at least three runs in four of his past five starts. Things won’t get any easier for him against the Milwaukee Brewers, who sit third in runs scored on home soil this season.

Chicago's bullpen also ranks 29th in FIP in June. The Brewers should score early and often in this one, doing the heavy lifting necessary to push this Over the total.

Bet to -115.

Rockies starter Michael Lorenzen has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this year, sitting in the bottom percentile in pitching run value and second percentile in xBA (.297).

The right-hander relies heavily on his four-seamer, while Buxton is batting a team-leading .364 against the four-seamer from righties, with an insane .891 SLG – the ninth-best mark in MLB.

Freddie Freeman's underlying metrics point toward another long ball, as he enters with a 73.3% hard-hit rate, .286 ISO, and 16.3-degree launch angle over his last six games. Randy Vasquez has consistently allowed hard contact lately, creating a favorable matchup for one of baseball's hottest hitters.

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.