The Chicago Cubs put on an absolute show yesterday.
Following a 12-run outburst, Kevin Gausman is in the perfect spot against the Washington Nationals to help the blue and white win their fourth straight, so we're running back Chicago on the moneyline (-138 at Polymarket) as part of my Cubs vs. Nationals predictions.
Let’s dive into my MLB picks for Thursday, Aug. 13, and sweep the board once more.
Who will win Cubs vs Nationals today: Cubs moneyline (-142)
The Chicago Cubs' offense is simply on another level right now. They've scored 30 runs across their last three games and own the highest wRC+ in baseball as a result. In other words, they've been pretty unstoppable.
Enter Washington Nationals starter Cade Cavalli, who's had issues limiting the long ball this season. Over his last five starts, he's surrendered seven homers, and his 40.6% hard-hit rate ranks in the top 20 among qualified starters.
Cavalli's going to play right into the Cubs' power stroke, so expect more traffic on the base paths for Chicago tonight.
I'd play this one up to -150.
Looking for more plays? Tap into Colby Marchio's MLB moneyline picks for Thursday.
COVERS INTEL: Kevin Gausman's 3.84 xERA is among the best of his career, and he's finding his home in Chicago quite quickly following his trade from the Blue Jays. In his lone start with the Cubs, Gausman tied a season-high seven innings, allowing just two earned runs and four strikeouts. 
Cubs vs Nationals Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 runs (-116)
With the Cubs' offense going up against Cavalli, who's prone to the long ball, the Over is the only play today. Not only has the ball been flying off his arm, but Nationals Park is home to the 10th-most homers and third-highest xwOBAcon this year.
Look for Pete Crow-Armstrong to also continue his blistering pace in the NL MVP odds; he's now recorded 12 hits (three homers) over his last eight games.
Cubs vs Nationals home run prediction: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+365)
Crow-Armstrong enters today cruising toward the NL MVP, owning an elite 12.3% barrel rate, a career-high 48.6% hard-hit rate, and a .473 xSLG. His 8.8% solid contact rate is not only a career high, but reflects the offseason adjustments he's made to get to this spot.
Meanwhile, Cavalli relies heavily on a 97 MPH four-seam fastball, a pitch that PCA has been able to eat up this season. Adding to the case are PCA’s splits — he’s hit 20 of his 27 homers against righties this season.
More home run prediction for Thursday can be found with our resident expert Josh Inglis.
- ML/RL bets: 3-5, -2.26 units
- Over/Under bets: 4-4, -0.80 units
Cubs vs Nationals weather
The weather will be perfect for baseball tonight, with temperatures reaching 89F prior to first pitch, giving the ball a little extra air under it.
Cubs vs Nationals odds
- Moneyline: Cubs (-142) | Nationals (+133)
- Run line: Cubs -1.5 (+122) | Nationals +1.5 (-127)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-116) | Under 8.5 (+108)
Cubs vs Nationals trend
I'm loving the Over tonight, which is 6-0-1 in the Cubs' last seven games as a road favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Nationals.
How to watch Cubs vs Nationals and game info
| Location | Nationals Park, Washington, D.C. |
| Date | Thursday, August 13, 2026 |
| First pitch | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MARQ, Nationals.TV |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Kevin Gausman (6-10, 4.29 ERA) |
| Nationals starting pitcher | Cade Cavalli (9-5, 3.27 ERA) |
Cubs vs Nationals latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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