MLB Picks

Alec Burleson is one of my favorite hitters to target on Friday's slate as the Cardinals take on Seth Lugo and the Royals. Burleson carries a strong Batters-Box rating and has produced consistently in strong-rated matchups, recording a hit in 75% of those games. He has also been scorching right-handed pitching recently, posting a .357 batting average and 1.364 OPS over his last 30 plate appearances. Lugo has struggled badly against left-handed hitters, allowing loud contact and elevated expected metrics throughout the season. With Burleson seeing the ball well and matching up favorably against Lugo's arsenal, this is a spot worth attacking.

When it comes to his home run skill, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Coors Field as the best venue in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.. Coors Field sits at the highest elevation among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-hottest weather on the schedule today at 84°.. The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Lowe can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

Oswald Peraza is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.. The #2 field in baseball for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. Sutter Health Park has the 4th-shortest fences among all parks.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level on the slate today at 96°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 16.3-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for batters.

Connor Prielipp ranks in the 25th percentile in Pitcher Run Value and struggles against right-handed hitters. That is far from ideal going up against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who excel against lefties and project to have seven or eight batters hit from the right-side on Friday night. Back Arizona to -190.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. Ceddanne Rafaela is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. Among all parks, T-Mobile Park has the 10th-lowest average fence height.. Homers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest among all major league stadiums.. This matchup is expected to have the 10th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

Baltimore's bullpen has been one of the worst in baseball lately, posting a 7.78 FIP and 46.9% hard-hit rate over the last week. The Orioles have also generated a 42.2% hard-hit rate and 105 wRC+ over the last two weeks, giving both teams paths to offense.

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.