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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 5, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.99 |
+163 
|
o7.5 -120 
|
+1.5 -132
|
|
5.18 |
-177 
|
u8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +120 
|
San Francisco
- Under is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Giants last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-1-2 in Giants last 7 overall.
NY Mets
- Under is 2-0-2 in Mets last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Mets last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Thorntons last 4 starts as a home underdog.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mets last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.79 |
-130 
|
o8.0 -115 
|
-1.5 +135
|
|
4.35 |
+120
|
u8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -148
|
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-1 in Cubs last 7 overall.
- Over is 6-1 in Cubs last 7 on grass.
- Over is 8-2 in Cubs last 10 vs. National League East.
Miami
- Marlins are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a favorite.
- Marlins are 4-0 in Gustos last 4 starts as a home underdog.
- Marlins are 4-0 in Gustos last 4 home starts.
Top Projection
Heriberto Hernandez o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+100)
o1.5+100
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.63 |
+143
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -155 
|
|
5.25 |
-153
|
u8.5 -120
|
-1.5 +140
|
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0 in Perezs last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 5-0 in Braves last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Perezs last 4 starts on grass.
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 7-0 in their last 7 home games.
- Over is 5-0 in Phillies last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League East.
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.78 |
+143
|
o7.0 -115
|
+1.5 -160
|
|
3.89 |
-153
|
u7.5 -124
|
-1.5 +140
|
Detroit
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 road games.
- Over is 5-0 in Valdezs last 5 road starts.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 4-0 in Valdezs last 4 starts as a road favorite.
Cleveland
- Under is 4-0 in Messicks last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Guardians are 7-1 in Messicks last 8 starts as an underdog.
- Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 vs. American League Central.
Top Projection
Riley Greene o0.5 Total RBIs (+266)
o0.5+266
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.71 |
-157
|
o9.5 +105
|
-1.5 +100
|
|
4.95 |
+147
|
u9.5 -120
|
+1.5 -115
|
Milwaukee
- Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Elly De La Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+231)
o0.5+231
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.84 |
+170
|
o7.5 -115
|
+1.5 -132
|
|
4.67 |
-170
|
u8.0 -119
|
-1.5 +125
|
LA Angels
- Under is 6-0 in Angels last 6 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 7-0-1 in Angels last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-0 in Kikuchis last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 7-1-1 in Angels last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 5-0-1 in Pirates last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0-2 in Pirates last 6 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 5-0 in Pirates last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.27 |
-134
|
o7.5 -121
|
-1.5 +123
|
|
4.36 |
+130
|
u8.5 -125
|
+1.5 -135
|
Boston
- Over is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 overall.
- Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 on grass.
- Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 games as a favorite.
Baltimore
- Over is 8-0 in Bassitts last 8 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Bassitts last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Orioles last 5 during game 3 of a series.
Top Projection
Adley Rutschman o0.5 Total RBIs (+204)
o0.5+204
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.79 |
-105
|
o6.5 -135
|
-1.5 +170
|
|
4.02 |
-105
|
u7.5 -157
|
+1.5 -190
|
Tampa Bay
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 road games.
- Rays are 6-0 in Rasmussens last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 on grass.
- Rays are 6-0 in Rasmussens last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
Texas
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Rangers last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Rangers last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Wyatt Langford o0.5 Total RBIs (+251)
o0.5+251
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.55 |
-105
|
o9.5 -110
|
-1.5 +146
|
|
5.67 |
-105
|
u9.5 -105
|
+1.5 -170
|
Toronto
- Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 overall.
- Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
Kansas City
- Over is 6-0-2 in Royals last 8 games a home underdog.
- Royals are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a favorite.
- Royals are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Royals last 7 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+174)
o0.5+174
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.70 |
+106
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -194
|
|
4.52 |
-115
|
u8.5 -120
|
-1.5 +170
|
Minnesota
- Over is 2-0-2 in Twins last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 6-1 in Twins last 7 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Twins last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-1 in Twins last 6 games as a favorite.
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as a home favorite.
- White Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 overall.
- Over is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 home games.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.24 |
+101
|
o7.5 -120
|
-1.5 +165
|
|
4.26 |
-111
|
u8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -185
|
NY Yankees
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 games as an underdog.
San Diego
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Padres last 5 vs. American League East.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.83 |
-105
|
o8.5 -110
|
-1.5 +152
|
|
4.50 |
-105
|
u8.5 -110
|
+1.5 -166
|
Arizona
- Over is 6-0 in Diamondbacks last 6 during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Diamondbacks are 7-1 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Houston
- Under is 2-0-2 in Astros last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 1-0-3 in Astros last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Astros last 5 interleague games.
- Astros are 9-1 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Lars Nootbaar o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+110)
o1.5+120
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.62 |
-120
|
o10.5 -124
|
-1.5 +126
|
|
5.45 |
+110
|
u11.0 -115
|
+1.5 -145
|
St. Louis
- Over is 5-0-1 in Cardinals last 6 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 8-1 in Cardinals last 9 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 7-1 in Cardinals last 8 road games.
- Over is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 vs. National League West.
Colorado
- Under is 7-0 in Rockies last 7 home games.
- Under is 7-0 in Rockies last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 games as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.85 |
+196
|
o7.5 -115
|
+1.5 -115
|
|
5.04 |
-216
|
u8.0 -120
|
-1.5 +104
|
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Nationals last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Nationals last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 5-1 in Dodgers last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Dodgers last 7 during game 2 of a series.
- Dodgers are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. National League East.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.53 |
+215
|
o7.5 -122
|
+1.5 +105
|
|
4.61 |
-245
|
u8.0 -115
|
-1.5 -115
|
Athletics
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 road games.
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 vs. American League West.
- Over is 6-0-1 in last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Seattle
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 overall.
- Over is 7-1 in Mariners last 8 vs. American League West.
- Mariners are 0-4 in their last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Top Projection
Taylor Ward o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
o0.5+210
SF
@
NYM
Sat, Sep 5 • 4:10 PM ET
Total Hits
Jared Young u0.5 Total Hits (+160)
Projection 0.86
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Citi Field as the 3rd-worst park in MLB for left-handed batting average.. Citi Field's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which often leads to less offense.. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 8.6-mph in this game, the 3rd-best of the day for hurlers.. Jared Young has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 7.2% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the last two weeks.. In the past week, Jared Young's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal EV of 93.9 mph to 79.7 mph.
Total Bases
Francisco Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (+195)
Projection 1.42
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his home run ability, Francisco Alvarez ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. This contest is projected to have the 11th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Francisco Alvarez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's shallowest CF fences today.. Out of every team in action today, the 5th-worst infield defense belongs to the San Francisco Giants.. Francisco Alvarez will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.
CHC
@
MIA
Sat, Sep 5 • 4:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Michael Busch o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.63
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive talent, Michael Busch ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Michael Busch is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Hitting from the opposite that Ryan Gusto throws from, Michael Busch will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Michael Busch has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 91.5-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 88.3-mph EV.. Michael Busch's launch angle in recent games (25.1° in the last two weeks) is considerably better than his 15.8° seasonal figure.
Total RBIs
Seiya Suzuki o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
Projection 0.59
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Seiya Suzuki projects as the 20th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Seiya Suzuki hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Seiya Suzuki has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% recently, upping his 10.5% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the last 7 days.. Seiya Suzuki has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 93-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 88.5-mph mark.
ATL
@
PHI
Sat, Sep 5 • 6:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Ronald Acuna Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.66
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Ronald Acuna Jr. projects as the 9th-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ronald Acuna Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.. Citizens Bank Park grades out as the #9 park in baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Homers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.
Total Home Runs
Mike Yastrzemski o0.5 Total Home Runs (+750)
Projection 0.15
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Mike Yastrzemski ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. The #10 field in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citizens Bank Park.. Homers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Mike Yastrzemski will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zack Wheeler in today's matchup... and moreover, Wheeler has a large platoon split.
DET
@
CLE
Sat, Sep 5 • 6:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Kevin McGonigle o0.5 Total Home Runs (+800)
Projection 0.12
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive talent, Kevin McGonigle ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Kevin McGonigle is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which generally leads to better offense.. Kevin McGonigle has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Kevin McGonigle's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better lately, going from 16.8% on the season to 37.5% over the past 7 days.
Total RBIs
Kevin McGonigle o0.5 Total RBIs (+260)
Projection 0.4
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive talent, Kevin McGonigle ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Kevin McGonigle is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today.. The #2 field in the league for boosting base hits to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which generally leads to better offense.. Kevin McGonigle has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
MIL
@
CIN
Sat, Sep 5 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Hector Rodriguez o1.5 Total Bases (+148)
Projection 1.89
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Hector Rodriguez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (75% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game.. Great American Ball Park grades out as the #4 park in MLB for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest right field dimensions in MLB.. This matchup is projected to have the 13th-most suitable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 20.7-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for hitters.
Total Home Runs
Elly De La Cruz o0.5 Total Home Runs (+496)
Projection 0.21
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Elly De La Cruz ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Elly De La Cruz is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. Great American Ball Park grades out as the #4 park in MLB for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. This matchup is projected to have the 13th-most suitable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 20.7-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for hitters.
LAA
@
PIT
Sat, Sep 5 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Mike Trout o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.68
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Mike Trout projects as the 6th-best batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mike Trout is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. The #3 venue in the game for boosting BABIP to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. High humidity has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-highest humidity of all games on the slate at 77%.. In the last week, Mike Trout's 57.1% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 44.2%.
Total Bases
Esmerlyn Valdez o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
Projection 1.6
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run skill, Esmerlyn Valdez ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Esmerlyn Valdez is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. The #3 venue in the game for boosting BABIP to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. High humidity has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-highest humidity of all games on the slate at 77%.. Hitting from the opposite that Yusei Kikuchi throws from, Esmerlyn Valdez will have an advantage in today's game.
BOS
@
BAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Roman Anthony o1.5 Total Bases (+107)
Projection 1.94
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Roman Anthony as the 9th-best hitter in Major League Baseball when assessing his BABIP ability.. Roman Anthony is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today.. Because of Chris Bassitt's large platoon split, Roman Anthony will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup.. Roman Anthony hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Roman Anthony's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, increasing from 46.8% to 54.5%.
Total Bases
Wilyer Abreu o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection 1.99
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Wilyer Abreu is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. Among all major league parks, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's RF dimensions are the shallowest.. Wilyer Abreu will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Bassitt in today's game... and the cherry on top, Bassitt has a large platoon split.. Wilyer Abreu's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 16.7% to 21.4%.
TB
@
TEX
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:05 PM ET
Moneyline
TEX (-103)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Texas is swinging the bats at an elite level, ranking second in MLB with a 124 wRC+ over the last fortnight. Jacob deGrom at home as a plus-money underdog against a flat Tampa Bay offense (84 wRC+) is the clearest form-versus-price discrepancy on the entire Saturday slate.
Total Home Runs
Liam Hicks o0.5 Total Home Runs (+1200)
Projection 0.1
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Liam Hicks is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. In the majors, Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Batting from the opposite that Jacob deGrom throws from, Liam Hicks will have an advantage in today's game.. Over the past 14 days, Liam Hicks's 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.2%.. Liam Hicks has recorded a .352 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 84th percentile.
TOR
@
KC
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Jac Caglianone o1.5 Total Bases (-110)
Projection 2.04
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his home run ability, Jac Caglianone ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jac Caglianone is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #6 stadium in baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. The weather forecast predicts the most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
Total Bases
Vinnie Pasquantino o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection 1.87
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Vinnie Pasquantino is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #6 stadium in baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. The weather forecast predicts the most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Vinnie Pasquantino will hold the platoon advantage against Max Scherzer in today's matchup.
MIN
@
CHW
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Munetaka Murakami o0.5 Total RBIs (+185)
Projection 0.65
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Munetaka Murakami projects as the 2nd-best home run hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Munetaka Murakami is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The #6 park in the league for boosting offensive stats to left-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-shallowest fences in Major League Baseball — generally good for home runs.. This game is predicted to have the most humidity on the slate today (81%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid.
Total RBIs
Miguel Vargas o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 97th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Miguel Vargas is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Guaranteed Rate Field as the 6th-best venue in baseball for boosting offensive stats to righties.. This game is predicted to have the most humidity on the slate today (81%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid.. Miguel Vargas pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.5% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest LF fences today.
NYY
@
SD
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:15 PM ET
Moneyline
NYY (-105)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Carlos Rodón and Robbie Ray should duel, but New York holds the offensive edge. The Yankees boast a 112 wRC+ over the last 14 days, compared to San Diego’s sluggish 91 wRC+. With pricing set essentially at pick'em, back the lineup producing extra-base hits at a higher rate.
Total Home Runs
Freddy Fermin o0.5 Total Home Runs (+1300)
Projection 0.09
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
In the league, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Batting from the opposite that Carlos Rodon throws from, Freddy Fermin will have the upper hand in today's game.. Freddy Fermin hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Freddy Fermin will hold that advantage in today's game.. Freddy Fermin's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 10.8% to 16.6%.
AZ
@
HOU
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:15 PM ET
Moneyline
HOU (-105)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
At near pick'em odds, Houston has the decisive bullpen advantage. Houston relievers have dominated with a 3.02 FIP and 3.55 SIERA over the last two weeks. Arizona’s offense is sputtering down at an 84 wRC+, making Ethan Pecko and the Astros' superior bullpen the correct side tonight.
Total RBIs
Tim Tawa o0.5 Total RBIs (+260)
Projection 0.44
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
In the past week's worth of games, Tim Tawa's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10.7% up to 27.3%.. Tim Tawa's launch angle this year (12°) is quite a bit higher than his 7.5° angle last year.. Compared to his seasonal average of 12°, Tim Tawa has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 21.8° angle over the last 14 days.
STL
@
COL
Sat, Sep 5 • 8:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Hunter Goodman o0.5 Total RBIs (+110)
Projection 0.91
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Hunter Goodman as the game's 12th-best home run batter.. Hunter Goodman is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Coors Field as the best venue in baseball for run-scoring.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude in the league, which often leads to better offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 2nd-most suitable hitting conditions on the slate today.
Total RBIs
Nolan Gorman o0.5 Total RBIs (+140)
Projection 0.71
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Coors Field as the best venue in baseball for run-scoring.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude in the league, which often leads to better offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 2nd-most suitable hitting conditions on the slate today.. Batting from the opposite that Mason Adams throws from, Nolan Gorman will have the upper hand today.. Nolan Gorman has strong power (96th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (33.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Mason Adams is a pitch-to-contact type (3rd percentile K%) — great news for Gorman.
WAS
@
LAD
Sat, Sep 5 • 9:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Mookie Betts o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.7
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive ability, Mookie Betts ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Mookie Betts is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Dodger Stadium ranks as the #1 park in the majors for RHB home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Dodger Stadium has the shortest fence height (on average) among all stadiums.. Mookie Betts hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.
Total RBIs
CJ Abrams o0.5 Total RBIs (+224)
Projection 0.53
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive skill, CJ Abrams ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. CJ Abrams is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. Dodger Stadium profiles as the #1 ballpark in the game for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Dodger Stadium has the shortest fence height (on average) among all stadiums.. CJ Abrams will have the handedness advantage against Tyler Glasnow in today's game.
ATH
@
SEA
Sat, Sep 5 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Jonah Heim o1.5 Total Bases (+230)
Projection 1.26
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
T-Mobile Park has the 10th-lowest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest fences among all stadiums — generally good for long-balls.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense profiles as the worst among every team playing today.. In the past 14 days, Jonah Heim's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89-mph over the course of the season to 94-mph of late.
Total RBIs
Zack Gelof o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.49
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zack Gelof in the 83rd percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Zack Gelof is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.. T-Mobile Park has the 10th-lowest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest fences among all stadiums — generally good for long-balls.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense profiles as the worst among every team playing today.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
Free Computer Picks by Odds Shark
More MLB Picks & Betting Tools
NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
What kinds of MLB picks do we make?
Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
