MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on May 1, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

AZ @

CHC Fri, May 1 • 2:20 PM ET

5 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Moises Ballesteros u0.5 Total Hits (+182)

Projection 0.75

Best Odds

u0.5 +182

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +152

u0.5 +182

u0.5 +151

u0.5 +155

This year, Moises Ballesteros has been pinch hit for in 56% of his appearances when starting against righty on the mound.. Wrigley Field ranks as the #30 field in the league for lefty batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the coldest temperature of the day at 45°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 9.4-mph in this game, the best of the day for mound aces.. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Moises Ballesteros's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.8% down to 4.8%.

+182 at bet365

Total Hits

Carson Kelly u0.5 Total Hits (+121)

Projection 0.64

Best Odds

u0.5 +121

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +121

u0.5 +105

u0.5 +119

u0.5 +120

Carson Kelly is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.. The #6 field in the majors for suppressing batting average to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Wrigley Field.. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the coldest temperature of the day at 45°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 9.4-mph in this game, the best of the day for mound aces.. Zac Gallen will hold the platoon advantage over Carson Kelly in today's game.

+121 at DraftKings

View 5 Picks

$Texas Rangers logo$ TEX @

DET Fri, May 1 • 6:40 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Bases

Evan Carter o1.5 Total Bases (+265)

Projection 1.42

Best Odds

o1.5 +265

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +208

o1.5 +265

o1.5 +200

o1.5 +215

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Evan Carter ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Comerica Park projects as the #7 park in the game for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the league, Comerica Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude in the league, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Evan Carter will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jack Flaherty in today's game.

+265 at bet365

Total Bases

Jake Burger o1.5 Total Bases (+170)

Projection 1.64

Best Odds

o1.5 +170

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +150

o1.5 +170

o1.5 +150

o1.5 +160

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 94th percentile when estimating his home run ability.. Jake Burger is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today.. Comerica Park projects as the #7 park in the game for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the league, Comerica Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude in the league, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.

+170 at bet365

View 10 Picks

MIL @

WAS Fri, May 1 • 6:45 PM ET

1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks

Spread

MIL -1.5 (+112)

Best Odds

-1.5 +110

Pick made: 15 hours ago

-1.5 +109

-1.5 +110

-1.5 +108

-1.5 +105

-1.5 +110

Brewers hitters have teed off on Jake Irvin in the past, slashing .317/.403/.557 heading into Friday’s matchup. With Jacob Misiorowski leading the NL in strikeouts, expect Milwaukee to cover as road favorites in the nation’s capital.

Total Hits

Luis Garcia Jr. u0.5 Total Hits (+150)

Projection 0.78

Best Odds

u0.5 +155

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +150

u0.5 +155

u0.5 +150

The #3 park in Major League Baseball for suppressing batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park.. Nationals Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which generally leads to worse offense.. Out of every team playing today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the Milwaukee Brewers.. Luis Garcia Jr. has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 5.5% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past 14 days.. From last season to this one, Luis Garcia Jr.'s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 15.3% to 9.3%.

+155 at bet365

View 11 Picks

CIN @

PIT Fri, May 1 • 6:45 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Bases

Oneil Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+130)

Projection 1.9

Best Odds

o1.5 +130

Pick made: 18 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +105

o1.5 +130

o1.5 -115

o1.5 +107

o1.5 +105

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as Major League Baseball's 11th-best home run batter.. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 1st in the lineup today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.7-mph in this game, the most-favorable of the day for batters.. Oneil Cruz will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brady Singer in today's matchup... and moreover, Singer has a huge platoon split.. Out of all the teams in action today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Cincinnati Reds.

+130 at bet365

Total Bases

Matt McLain o1.5 Total Bases (+180)

Projection 1.43

Best Odds

o1.5 +180

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +160

o1.5 +180

o1.5 +160

o1.5 +180

Matt McLain's BABIP ability is projected in the 75th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Matt McLain is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.7-mph in this game, the most-favorable of the day for batters.. There has been a significant improvement in Matt McLain's launch angle from last season's 16.2° to 23.5° this season.. Matt McLain's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased of late, increasing from 21.7% on the season to 36% over the past two weeks.

+180 at bet365

View 10 Picks

BAL @

NYY Fri, May 1 • 7:05 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Aaron Judge u0.5 Total Hits (+200)

Projection 0.92

Best Odds

u0.5 +200

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +166

u0.5 +200

u0.5 +163

u0.5 +185

The #4 park in baseball for suppressing base hits to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Yankee Stadium.. Built just 11 feet above sea level, Yankee Stadium has one of the lowest elevations among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Aaron Judge hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 5th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.. Aaron Judge has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 24.2% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the last week's worth of games.. Aaron Judge has been lucky in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .315 BA is inflated compared to his .287 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

+200 at bet365

Total Hits

Amed Rosario u0.5 Total Hits (+180)

Projection 0.88

Best Odds

u0.5 +180

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +149

u0.5 +180

u0.5 +144

u0.5 +155

+180 at bet365

View 10 Picks

PHI @

MIA Fri, May 1 • 7:10 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Bases

Kyle Schwarber o1.5 Total Bases (+145)

Projection 1.63

Best Odds

o1.5 +145

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +137

o1.5 +120

o1.5 +110

o1.5 +145

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 3rd-best home run hitter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Schwarber is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. The LoanDepot Park roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up 12° hotter than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Eury Perez throws from, Kyle Schwarber will have the upper hand in today's game.. Kyle Schwarber has posted a .376 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, placing in the 95th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

+145 at Fanatics Sportsbook

Total Bases

Bryce Harper o1.5 Total Bases (+125)

Projection 1.72

Best Odds

o1.5 +125

Pick made: 1 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +122

o1.5 +125

o1.5 +100

o1.5 +115

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bryce Harper ranks as the 10th-best batter in Major League Baseball.. Bryce Harper is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.. The LoanDepot Park roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up 12° hotter than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for offense.. Bryce Harper will have the handedness advantage against Eury Perez in today's matchup.. Bryce Harper has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 98.7-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal figure of 95.5-mph.

+125 at bet365

View 10 Picks

HOU @

BOS Fri, May 1 • 7:10 PM ET

6 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Christian Walker u0.5 Total Hits (+170)

Projection 0.85

Best Odds

u0.5 +180

Pick made: 16 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +170

u0.5 +180

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 12th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Dry weather has a small but significant connection with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-driest conditions on the slate at 35%.. Out of every team on the slate today, the best infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox.. Playing on the road generally reduces hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Christian Walker in today's game.

+180 at Fanatics Sportsbook

Total RBIs

Roman Anthony o0.5 Total RBIs (+185)

Projection 0.59

Best Odds

o0.5 +185

Pick made: 5 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o0.5 +184

o0.5 +185

o0.5 +175

o0.5 +170

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Roman Anthony as the 9th-best hitter in baseball when estimating his BABIP ability.. Roman Anthony is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.. Roman Anthony will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Michael Burrows in today's game.. Roman Anthony hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 90th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. The Houston Astros infield defense projects as the 4th-worst among all the teams today.

+185 at bet365

View 6 Picks

TOR @

MIN Fri, May 1 • 8:10 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Daulton Varsho u0.5 Total Hits (+125)

Projection 0.81

Best Odds

u0.5 +151

Pick made: 28 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +151

u0.5 +150

u0.5 +120

u0.5 +140

u0.5 +125

Daulton Varsho's BABIP talent is projected in the 2nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The 10th-deepest CF fences among all stadiums are found in Target Field.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 2nd-most suitable for pitching of all games on the slate.. Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Daulton Varsho in today's matchup.. Daulton Varsho's average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 89.5-mph EV last season has lowered to 84.4-mph.

+151 at DraftKings

Total Bases

Kazuma Okamoto o1.5 Total Bases (+152)

Projection 1.59

Best Odds

o1.5 +200

Pick made: 32 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +152

o1.5 +140

o1.5 +125

o1.5 +200

o1.5 +165

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kazuma Okamoto in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. Kazuma Okamoto is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Target Field as the 8th-best field in the majors for run-scoring.. Among every team on the slate today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the Minnesota Twins.. Over the past 7 days, Kazuma Okamoto's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 13.6% up to 27.3%.

+200 at BetMGM

View 10 Picks

LAD @

STL Fri, May 1 • 8:15 PM ET

9 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Jordan Walker u0.5 Total Hits (+125)

Projection 0.77

Best Odds

u0.5 +135

Pick made: 1 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +135

u0.5 +125

u0.5 +133

u0.5 +125

Busch Stadium ranks as the #21 stadium in the game for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Low humidity has a small but significant correlation with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather report projects the 5th-least humid conditions of all games on the slate at 36%.. Batting from the same side that Emmet Sheehan throws from, Jordan Walker meets a tough challenge in today's matchup.. Over the last 7 days, Jordan Walker's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 21% down to 0%.. In the last week, Jordan Walker's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 19.4%.

+135 at DraftKings

Total RBIs

Alec Burleson o0.5 Total RBIs (+205)

Projection 0.55

Best Odds

o0.5 +205

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o0.5 +200

o0.5 +205

o0.5 +180

o0.5 +165

o0.5 +179

o0.5 +160

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 94th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.. Alec Burleson is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. In Major League Baseball, Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. Batting from the opposite that Emmet Sheehan throws from, Alec Burleson will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Alec Burleson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

+205 at bet365

View 9 Picks

ATL @

COL Fri, May 1 • 8:40 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Jorge Mateo u0.5 Total Hits (+135)

Projection 0.7

Best Odds

u0.5 +135

Pick made: 30 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +129

u0.5 +130

u0.5 +132

u0.5 +135

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Mateo in the 12th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. Jorge Mateo is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in today's game.. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly connected with lower temperatures, and the weather report for this matchup forecasts the 5th-lowest temperature of all games on the slate today at 59°.. Playing on the road typically weakens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jorge Mateo in today's matchup.. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.188) provides evidence that Jorge Mateo has been lucky since the start of last season with his .245 actual wOBA.

+135 at Fanatics Sportsbook

Total Bases

Kyle Karros o1.5 Total Bases (+200)

Projection 1.44

Best Odds

o1.5 +200

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +163

o1.5 +200

o1.5 +150

o1.5 +160

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Karros in the 84th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Coors Field as the best venue in the majors for run-scoring.. Coors Field sits at the highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. Kyle Karros will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.. Kyle Karros's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased of late, rising from 16.9% on the season to 25% over the last week.

+200 at bet365

View 10 Picks

NYM @

LAA Fri, May 1 • 9:38 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Josh Lowe u0.5 Total Hits (+150)

Projection 0.72

Best Odds

u0.5 +150

Pick made: 1 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +125

u0.5 +150

u0.5 +125

u0.5 +123

u0.5 +130

Josh Lowe is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Angel Stadium as the 10th-worst park in the game for LHB batting average.. Josh Lowe has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's game.. In the past two weeks, Josh Lowe's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.8% down to 0%.. Josh Lowe's average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 88.7-mph figure last season has dropped off to 86.2-mph.

+150 at bet365

Total Hits

Juan Soto u0.5 Total Hits (+190)

Projection 0.89

Best Odds

u0.5 +190

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +187

u0.5 +190

u0.5 +165

u0.5 +174

u0.5 +170

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Angel Stadium as the 10th-worst park in the game for LHB batting average.. Playing on the road typically lessens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Juan Soto in today's game.

+190 at bet365

View 10 Picks

CHW @

SD Fri, May 1 • 9:40 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Ty France u0.5 Total Hits (+160)

Projection 0.78

Best Odds

u0.5 +160

Pick made: 5 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +138

u0.5 +160

u0.5 +130

u0.5 +135

Ty France is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game.. Today, Ty France is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 35.5% rate (89th percentile).

+160 at bet365

Total Bases

Miguel Vargas o1.5 Total Bases (+165)

Projection 1.77

Best Odds

o1.5 +165

Pick made: 5 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +156

o1.5 +165

o1.5 +135

o1.5 +160

o1.5 +145

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Miguel Vargas is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.. This game is forecasted to have the most humidity of all games on the slate (82%); there is a small yet noteworthy link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. Miguel Vargas hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

+165 at bet365

View 10 Picks

CLE @

ATH Fri, May 1 • 9:40 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Bases

Kyle Manzardo o1.5 Total Bases (+165)

Projection 1.72

Best Odds

o1.5 +165

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +146

o1.5 +165

o1.5 +135

o1.5 +130

o1.5 +138

o1.5 +145

Kyle Manzardo is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Sutter Health Park as the 10th-best park in the league for left-handed batting average.. Sutter Health Park has the 3rd-lowest fences among all parks.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts for the most favorable hitting conditions of the day.. Considering J.T. Ginn's large platoon split, Kyle Manzardo will have a huge advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game.

+165 at bet365

Total Bases

Bo Naylor o1.5 Total Bases (+200)

Projection 1.53

Best Odds

o1.5 +200

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +167

o1.5 +200

o1.5 +140

o1.5 +175

o1.5 +170

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Sutter Health Park as the 10th-best park in the league for left-handed batting average.. Sutter Health Park has the 3rd-lowest fences among all parks.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts for the most favorable hitting conditions of the day.. Bo Naylor will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against J.T. Ginn in today's matchup... and even better, Ginn has a large platoon split.. Extreme groundball bats like Bo Naylor tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like J.T. Ginn.

+200 at bet365

View 10 Picks

KC @

SEA Fri, May 1 • 9:45 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Bases

Carter Jensen o1.5 Total Bases (+187)

Projection 1.64

Best Odds

o1.5 +187

Pick made: 28 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +187

o1.5 +140

o1.5 +180

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carter Jensen in the 79th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Carter Jensen is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. T-Mobile Park has the 9th-shortest fence height (on average) among all parks.. Carter Jensen will hold the platoon advantage over Bryan Woo in today's matchup... and moreover, Woo has a large platoon split.. Carter Jensen pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.3% — 84th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

+187 at DraftKings

Total Bases

Jac Caglianone o1.5 Total Bases (+205)

Projection 1.44

Best Odds

o1.5 +205

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +184

o1.5 +205

o1.5 +160

o1.5 +185

As it relates to his home run ability, Jac Caglianone ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. T-Mobile Park has the 9th-shortest fence height (on average) among all parks.. T-Mobile Park has the least fair ground in Major League Baseball — generally good for home runs.. Jac Caglianone will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bryan Woo today... and even more favorably, Woo has a large platoon split.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense projects as the 2nd-worst out of every team in action today.

+205 at bet365

View 10 Picks

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