Real Madrid vs Chelsea Picks and Predictions: Ready to Pounce on the Blues

Real Madrid are still a powerful and daunting foe, while Chelsea is struggling while finding their way under a new manager. Our Champions League betting picks explain why the Blues' woes will continue when the two sides meet on Wednesday.

Apr 12, 2023 • 12:38 ET • 4 min read

There are two Champions League clashes on Wednesday, including Real Madrid against Chelsea.

Los Blancos are the sole remaining Spanish team, but they have a history in this competition and will fancy their chances of another title run. Then you have Chelsea, who are going into their second game with Frank Lampard as the caretaker manager.

Nobody thinks Chelsea can win, so the pressure is off, but can Lampard’s men deliver a shock? Let's examine the matchup in our Real Madrid vs. Chelsea free Champions League betting picks and predictions.

Real Madrid vs Chelsea best odds

Real Madrid vs Chelsea picks and predictions

We’ve got a Champions League classic on Wednesday with Real Madrid vs. Chelsea from the Santiago Bernabeau.

Real Madrid are sitting second domestically and a full 12 points behind Barcelona. However, that’s far better than Chelsea, who are just 12 points from the relegation zone and a huge 34 points behind league leaders Arsenal.

Chelsea’s season has been so bad that they sacked Graham Potter before replacing him with fan favorite Frank Lampard. He's a legend as a player, but Lampard is so poor as a manager that Chelsea already sacked him once, so it feels like the club is waving the white flag on its season.

While Chelsea have all but given up this term with no hope of domestic success, they're in the last eight of the Champions League. Nobody expects Chelsea to win this tie, let alone the Champions League, so in many ways it feels like a free outing for Lampard. No expectations, no pressure, just send the players out there and try to win.

But they won't win. The Premier League is the strongest on the planet, but Chelsea are very poor right now and Lampard isn’t the man to sort that out, especially against a Real Madrid team that always shows up for the big occasions. You’re getting -140 to back Real Madrid on the moneyline, and I’m absolutely certain it’ll hit. But it's too short for me to suggest backing as my best bet. Then I considered the handicap with Real Madrid -1 on the spread, which at +187 feels like value since they'll likely notch at least a two-goal victory. But +278 for Real Madrid to win and Vinicius Junior to score feels like incredible value.

This is a Chelsea team that's only won 10 Premier League games all season, with just four of those triumphs coming away from Stamford Bridge. The club has been very poor in general, but away from home Chelsea has been especially bad. They’ve won just one game as the visitor in 2023, and that came against a 10-man Leicester City squad.

Real Madrid are far from their best, and they’re an aging team with the likes of Toni Kroos and Luka Modric. But we’ve said that for the past few years and they always turn up when it matters most. I really think Real Madrid winning this one is a formality at this stage.

The key to our best bet is Vinicius Junior, and the Brazilian has been growing from a promising forward to one of the best players on the planet over the past 12-18 months. The 22-year-old has scored 20 goals for Real Madrid in 2022-23, nine in the league, another six in the Champions, and then more across various cups. He’s absolutely electric, and Junior has been developing a habit of scoring big goals at important moments, much like the great players in that famous white shirt do frequently.

He's so quick, incisive with his dribbling, and smart with his play. Now he’s added goals to his output, making him exceptional. He faces a tough matchup against Reece James, a brilliant right-back. But there's still a good chance he scores, and at +278 we’re getting a really nice price on him doing that and Real Madrid taking home the win.

My best bet: Real Madrid to win + Vinicius Junior to score (+278 at FanDuel)

Best Champions League bonuses

Looking to do some Champions League betting? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:

A) Karim Benzema to score and Real Madrid to win BOOSTED to +300 (was +150) at Betway! Bet Now

B) New users at DraftKings can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets! Sign Up Now

*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best soccer betting sites for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

Real Madrid vs Chelsea side analysis

Real Madrid come into this on the back of a 3-2 loss to Villarreal, but they rested a number of key players in that game who should come back into the lineup here. Kroos, Modric, and Eduardo Camavinga were all benched and should return.

Likewise, we’ll see Federico Valverde recalled to play alongside Karim Benzema, with Junior on the other flank. Eder Militao and Dani Carvajal will also likely come back into the backline, as Carlo Ancelotti will stick with his favored 4-3-3.

We only have one game of Chelsea under Lampard to look at and gauge his starting lineup. Against Wolves, we saw Joao Felix and Raheem Sterling on either side of Kai Havertz. In the midfield, Enzo Fernandez and Mateo Kovacic will be alongside another midfielder, likely N’Golo Kante, who was superb after returning to the team against Liverpool last week. Mason Mount could also be an option if he's deemed fit enough after thriving under Lampard during the manager’s first stint at the club.

At the back, we’ll see James on the right, potentially opposite Ben Chilwell. You’d also expect Lampard to stick with Kalidou Koulibaly and Wesley Fofana at the heart of the defense too. On paper this is a solid Chelsea team, but it's hard to expect the club to perform well given what we've seen so far this campaign.

Real Madrid vs Chelsea Over/Under analysis

The total goals market really is a pick’em this week, with Under 2.5 goals slightly favored at -108 and Over 2.5 at -105. Given what we’ve seen recently from Real Madrid and the way they took Liverpool apart, I’d lean toward the Over, especially given that Lampard was never a particularly defensive manager during his first spell at Chelsea.

Over 2.5 goals has cashed in 64.3% of Real Madrid’s La Liga games at the Santiago Bernabeu, and it hit in two of their four Champions League contests so far this season. It’s tough to be too confident either way in this market, especially given the lack of data around this Chelsea team under Lampard. But back the Over if you’re looking to wager on this market.

Real Madrid vs Chelsea game info

Location: Santiago Bernabeu Stadium, Madrid, Spain
Date: Wednesday, April 12, 2023
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
TV: Paramount+

Real Madrid vs Chelsea key injuries

Real Madrid: Ferland Mendy LB (Out)
Chelsea: Armando Broja STR (Out), Thiago Silva CB (Out), Cesar Azpilicueta DEF (Out), Mason Mount CM (Questionable)

Real Madrid vs Chelsea weather

It’ll be a warm day in Madrid with temperatures around 70 degrees at kickoff.

Pages related to this topic

Popular Content

Legal Canadian sports betting

Best Canadian betting sites Ontario sports betting
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo