The Round of 16 at Euro 2020 rolls on in Copenhagen on Monday, with World Cup runners-up Croatia taking on former back-to-back European champions Spain.
Despite neither team having a great group stage across three matches, Spain are heavy -167 favorites, while Croatia are +500 underdogs.
Can Croatia upset the former powerhouse? Check out our tips and predictions.
Game info
• Location: Parken Stadium, Copenhagen, Denmark
• Date: Monday, June 28, 2021
• Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN, TSN
Croatia vs Spain betting tips
- Draw (+270)
- Under 2.5 (-125)
Read on for complete analysis
Croatia vs Spain match odds
Croatia: +500
Spain: -167
Draw: +270
Total: 2.5
Over 2.5: +100
Under 2.5: -125
Odds as of June 25, 2021, at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Euro 2020 sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonAs of 11 a.m. ET Monday, an hour before this knockout match, Spain is a solid -182 favorite at PointsBet USA, Croatia a lengthy +550 underdog and Draw +280. Three-way moneyline betting certainly reflects that pricing, with 82 percent of tickets and 91 percent of money on the Spanish side. Croatia is taking 11 percent of tickets/6 percent of money, and Draw has the remainder at 7 percent of tickets/3 percent of cash. The total is at 2.5 (Under -130), with 56 percent of tickets/58 percent of dollars on the Over.
Croatia vs Spain betting preview
Weather
It will be a clear, sunny day in Copenhagen for this Round of 16 tie, with temperatures expected around 70 degrees Fahrenheit.
Key injuries
Croatia: Borna Barisic (Out).
Spain: No injuries to report.
Matchup
| Croatia | Spain | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | World Ranking | 6 |
| 4 | Goals For | 6 |
| 3 | Goals Against | 1 |
| 3-1 vs. Scotland | Previous Game | 5-0 vs. Slovakia |
| Luka Modric | Player to Watch | Sergio Busquets |
Croatia vs Spain predictions
Moneyline pick
The Round of 16 will be a test of how important recent form is, because oh boy, did Spain deliver a beating in their final group stage. Not only did they carry the play, pass around Slovakia with ease and dominate possession, but they took their chances. For this Spain team, which lacks a bona fide striker, that's the most important thing.
Though, for all the positives that game gave Spain, there are still questions that hang over their attack. While they put five past Slovakia and had an xG over 3.0, Alvaro Morata wasn't one of the goalscorers — but he had a penalty stopped by Martin Dubravka. Ferran Torres has been their most lively attacker in the Euros, and he hasn't started since the first game.
Croatia, while certainly less talented than Spain, share similar concerns. A 1-1 draw against the Czech Republic was the lone time they produced an xG above 1.0, which includes a 3-1 win over Scotland (in which they had an xG of just 0.7). And like Spain, whose tournament could turn on the sudden improvement of their attack, Croatia could become revitalized should Luka Modric round into form. Against Scotland, he looked close to his best in midfield.
Spain is rightfully favored in this match, but neither side has a cutting edge to it, and there's little reason to believe Spain will turn heavy possession into production. It's difficult to see this one decided in 90 minutes.
PREDICTION: Draw (+270)
Over/Under pick
Only two of six combined group games for Spain and Croatia resulted in Overs on a 2.5 total, with both teams going 1-2 O/U in the group stage. For Spain, that came in their trashing of Slovakia, as they benefitted from the single worst game from a team in the group stage. For Croatia, it came in their 3-1 win over Scotland, highlighted by an improbable Scotland goal from range and a moment of Modric magic. Neither of those instances is particularly repeatable.
Croatia have created just 2.18 expected goals so far in the Euros, which is an accurate representation of their threat — or lack thereof — going forward. Spain, meanwhile, created 4.1 expected goals against Sweden and Poland but ended up with just one goal to show for it. As they do, they will keep possession and try to build methodically against Croatia, but ultimately, they lack a true finisher.
In a tight Round of 16 matchup, take the Under.
PREDICTION: Under 2.5 (-125)
Picks made on 6/25/2021 at 3:45 p.m. ET
Euro 2020 betting sites
As a signature tournament for the most popular sport in the world, almost every online sportsbook and betting site will offer odds for Euro 2020. Check out the best soccer betting sites available where you live.
