YTD (SOCCER): 65-35-9 (BIG PLAY!!!: 23-11-6)
I was away for the weekend and took it off, even didn't post in NFL which might not be a bad thing from the first couple of weeks. But the truth is there wasn't much I loved over the weekend since it's all International games. I did take the USA -1.5 which I thought would need a prayer to win but alas they came out strong in the 2nd half.
Today there are two games which I think might be rather interesting. France have not lost to Belgium in years as Belgium’s last competitive win over Les Bleus came back in September 1981! That's quite some time to be owned by your neighbors. Kylian Mbappe will miss out in this game due to a knee injury and new coach Zinedine Zidane has pushed for a stronger midfield and defense, which goes a bit against how Didier Deschamps used to line these guys up. But fear not, Les Bleus have a boatload of talent and regardless if Mbappe were on the field, they are the superior side. France also are unbeaten in their last five away matches (W4, D1), with three of those wins coming by a two-goal margin. Gonna be tough to go against them even without Mbappe.
Italy travels to Turkiye on the heels of another disappointing loss, this time at home where they dropped their first game against Belgium 2-0. This puts them squarely in a must win situation and Türkiye, yet again, failed to score. I think that the Italians actually lack depth in many areas, including their defense if you can believe it, but Turkiye just don't match up that well and they have conceded first in their last five matches. Italy have never lost against Turkiye before (W9, D4) and have opened the scoring in eight of their last nine matches. So there is the possibility that the Italians play more open and free, but that will also create chances for Turkiye who have won nine of their previous 13 matches on Turkish soil (D2, L2).
FRANCE FG -1 (+150): Granted there is no Mbappe but really hard to look past the prowess that France has shown when squaring off against Belgium. Since this game actually matters, I do see the French very focused here and I will be happy with a push, elated with a win. I don't want to drop the -130 on the match line when there is something as tempting as this with the French defense as stout as they have been. Not a big play b/c Mbappe is missing and France on the road, but I don't think it will matter and I have a really good grasp on the French national team.
ITALY FH (0) -130 AND FG TIE OR NOT BET (-125): I think the history with Italy, the stakes that are on the line in a tournament they do very well in, and the fact that Turkiye have conceded first in their last five matches leaves me very comfortable with this play and angle. The BTTS is at -200 which is insane given how few goals Turkiye have scored but I like the odds on Italy coming out with some urgency and getting an early goal in a game I do see potentially ending in a draw.
SWEDEN FG (-105) & YES BTTS (-170)...BIG PLAY!!!: Poland, in my humble opinion, stink. The Swedes are heading in the opposite direction and they know they have a golden chance with the Poles coming to town to get further points and top the table in Group B. They have also won eight of the last ten H2Hs (D1, L1) and have lost just twice on their own turf since June 2024 (W6, D2). They had a huge game vs. Poland to get into the World Cup, which they won, so I do think that Poland comes here with some revenge on their minds. But I think it's a tall task to ask them to do it in Sweden though I think the Swedish defense will let at least a goal in.
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