Aston Villa vs Wolves Predictions and Picks: Early Bird Gets the Worm at Villa Park

Aston Villa has done well to be where they are in the EPL table and much of that damage has come in the opening 45 minutes, where only Man City is better. Our EPL betting picks expect more of the same against Wolves on Saturday.

Mar 28, 2024 • 10:33 ET • 4 min read
Ollie Watkins Aston Villa EPL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Saturday gives us a Premier League derby in Aston Villa vs Wolverhampton Wanderers. We have all the free betting picks you need for this local derby, which features two of the Midlands’ most popular teams clashing at Villa Park.

Both teams are having better seasons than many expected with Aston Villa hunting a European spot and Wolves looking far from the relegation candidates than many presumed. Read our Aston Villa vs Wolverhampton Wanderers tips and predictions below for more.

Aston Villa vs Wolves best odds

EPL predictions for Aston Villa vs Wolves

Heading into this matchweek, Wolves were at the heady heights of ninth in the Premier League, a far cry from the perception coming into this season that they’d be amongst the forerunners for relegation to the Championship.

Then you have Aston Villa who are building on a great season last year and are now fourth in the Premier League. If they maintain that position, they’ll be playing in the Champions League next season. They deserve to be there too, having been one of the league’s best sides this year.

With that said, I'll be backing them to be leading at halftime. Firstly, they come into this missing some big players such as John McGinn, but they have the depth to make do without him, whereas the absence of Hwang Hee-Chan and most likely Matheus Cunha will hurt Wolves more.

Then most importantly, we have to consider Aston Villa’s sensational performances in first halves of games this season. If games finished after 45 minutes, Villa would be second in the Premier League rather than fourth.

They trail only Man City and have gone into the halftime interval leading 13 times in 29 games, with nine games level and losing in just seven. To put it into context, they've been winning at halftime two more times than Arsenal and four more than Liverpool.

They’ve fared even better at home, they’ve been leading at halftime in over 50% of their games at Villa Park — with eight halftime leads in just 14 games — and have been losing at the interval just twice. They’ve scored 15 first-half goals, which is a number only Man City can beat.

Despite being ninth in the Premier League table, we’ve seen Wolves as being more of a second half team. They have the 11th-worst record in the first 45 minutes of games and that drops to 14th when they’re on the road, winning just three times in 14 attempts.

At +117, we’re getting a good price on Aston Villa to be leading at the break, which they've done in three of their last five games. 

My best bet: Aston Villa to win the first half (+117 at TonyBet)

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Aston Villa vs Wolves same-game parlay

Aston Villa to win the first half

Aston Villa to win

Ollie Watkins to score or assist

We aren’t getting the biggest odds at +190 but it’s a nice way to build upon our best bet. I'm adding Aston Villa to win the match. If they go into the interval with a lead then I fully expect Unai Emery’s men to secure three points.

They’ve won 17 games so far this season and 10 of those have been at Villa Park, where they’ve only dropped points four times. With the likes of Moussa Diaby, Douglas Luiz, Leon Bailey, and Ollie Watkins, they should have enough to beat a talented Wolves team.

Speaking of Ollie Watkins, the third and final leg of our SGP is for the 28-year old to log a goal or assist. Watkins returns to club duty having represented England again during the international break.

He’s started every Premier League game for Villa this season, scoring 16 goals and assisting 10 more in those 29 fixtures. That’s an incredible record, averaging a goal contribution in nearly every game.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Aston Villa vs Wolves side and Over/Under analysis

It won’t be a huge surprise to learn that I expect Aston Villa to win this game. That said, I don’t like the odds of -154.

This is a game they should win but it’s always far less predictable when it’s a local derby and that's why I prefer the plus-money odds on Villa winning at halftime. You can get +390 for a Wolves win, which they've done in two of the previous four meetings at Villa Park, or the draw at +340.

The Over 2.5 comes in at a short -182 with the Under available at +154. Such a short price for the Under doesn’t appeal and feels like a wager worth avoiding.

Keep in mind Aston Villa have gone Over 2.5 goals in 78.6% of Premier League games at Villa Park this season, with the only three Unders all coming in December.

Over 2.5 goals has also landed in 71.4% of Wolves’ games on the road, with three of the four Unders coming in the first four games of the season.

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Aston Villa vs Wolves game info

Location: Villa Park, Birmingham, England
Date: Saturday, March 30, 2024
Time: 1:30 p.m. ET
TV: Peacock
Weather: Calm conditions, 45F.

Aston Villa vs Wolves key injuries

Aston Villa: Boubacar Kamara CM (Out), Emiliano Buendia CAM (Out), Tyrone Mings CB (Out), John McGinn MID (Out), Matty Cash FS (Questionable), Jacob Ramsey MID (Questionable).
Wolves: Hwang Hee-Chan FWR (Out), Pedro Neto FWR (Out), Craig Dawson CB (Questionable), Matheus Cunha STR (Questionable), Jean-Ricner Bellegarde CM (Questionable).

Aston Villa vs Wolves recent league form

Teams Recent Premier League Form
Brentford Aston Villa D-L-W-W-W
Manchester United Wolves W-L-W-W-L

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