Matthew Tkachuk Odds and Props: Giving Skinner Something to Chew On

Matthew Tkachuk is a long shot in the Conn Smythe betting even with the Panthers on the cusp of a Cup win due to a lack of points. Our NHL betting picks see that potentially continuing, though Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner will have to work for it.

Ryan Gilbert - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Ryan Gilbert • Betting Analyst
Jun 18, 2024 • 11:06 ET • 4 min read
Tkachuk Panthers NHL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Florida Panthers have another chance to close out the Stanley Cup Final against the Edmonton Oilers, this time at home on Tuesday night.

My NHL picks for tonight are focused on Matthew Tkachuk, who has been rather quiet for the Panthers in the Cup Final. Will that change in Game 5? Read on for my Matthew Tkachuk props and Oilers vs. Panthers predictions.

Matthew Tkachuk prop picks for June 18

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Matthew Tkachuk best bets

Under 0.5 points (+120)

Matthew Tkachuk has become the face of the Florida Panthers since joining the team last season. He’s racked up 197 points in 159 games, plus 44 points in 41 playoff games. However, that face hasn’t been on the score sheet much in the Stanley Cup Final.

Tkachuk has just one point in his last six games and that was an assist in Game 3. In fact, after opening the playoffs with 13 points in his first eight games, Tkachuk has just seven points in his last 13 contests.

The total is once again set at 5.5 in Game 5, which means the oddsmakers aren’t expecting a ton of goals. Tkachuk has been trending downward and we’re getting +120 for him to stay off the score sheet again? 

He may thwart us with a narrative-driven point in the clinching game, but I’ll take my chances with these odds.

Matthew Tkachuk prop: Under 0.5 points (+120 at BET99)

Over 2.5 shots on goal (-170)

While Tkachuk hasn’t made his presence felt on the score sheet, it hasn’t been for a lack of trying. The Panthers winger fired off four shots on goal vs. the Edmonton Oilers in Game 4, matching his total from Game 2, and he tends to keep shooting more as the series move along.

Tkachuk has gone Over 2.5 shots on goal in 15 of 21 games (71%) this postseason, including all five Games 5, 6 and 7 he’s played in thus far.

We’re paying a bit of a high price here at -170 but even those odds imply a 62.96% chance. That’s still below his 71% clip in these playoffs.

Matthew Tkachuk prop: Over 2.5 shots on goal (-170 at BET99)

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