The Battle of Ontario continues tonight with Game 5 between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Ottawa Senators as the series shifts back to Scotiabank Arena.
Toronto returns home looking to finish the job, and my Senators vs. Maple Leafs predictions expect John Tavares to have a clutch performance for the Buds in a potential close-out game.
Find out why with my free NHL picks for this Tuesday, April 29 matchup.
Who will win Senators vs Maple Leafs Game 5?
The Toronto Maple Leafs failed to complete the sweep in Game 4, but with the series returning home, I believe they punch their ticket to Round 2 tonight
The Leafs got themselves into special teams trouble early in the loss, allowing a short-handed goal and a power-play marker to the Ottawa Senators in the first period. Then Toronto dominated the final two periods of regulation, holding Ottawa to just four shots on net.
The Leafs know the recipe for success against this Senators team, and I think they’ll execute their game plan to lock down the opposition and let their stars dictate the game offensively.
I’m also expecting a bounce-back performance from Anthony Stolarz, who outside of an uncharacteristic five-game losing streak in early March, hadn’t lost back-to-back starts all season.
Senators vs Maple Leafs prediction
My Senators vs Maple Leafs pick: John Tavares Over 2.5 shots on goal (+120 at Sports Interaction)
The Maple Leafs won the first two games on home ice and then got a split in Ottawa to lead the series 3-1. They will look to finish the job tonight in front of Leafs Nation.
Toronto has been outshot 102-99 in the series, but Game 4 saw the Leafs finally break through the Sens’ defensive structure and pepper Linus Ullmark with 34 shots.
John Tavares had three shots in that game and has totaled 13 throughout the series for an average of 3.25 per game.
The markets are placing his shot prop total at 2.5 tonight and are offering plus-money (+120) on the Over. This feels like great value considering he’s 3-1 on the Over at this number in this series.
Additionally, Tavares has established himself as a presence in front of the net, which is where Toronto is trying to funnel pucks, allowing him to get tips and deflections to add to those totals.
His spot on PP1 is also a big boost for backers of the Tavares shot market, as six of his seven shots have come on the power play.
The man advantage failed the Leafs in overtime in Game 4, but that was without JT in the middle bumper role as he sat out after being pulled by a concussion spotter. The PP is far more dangerous when Tavares is on the ice due to his directiveness and propensity to get pucks on goal.
Additionally, the arrival of legitimate defensive options in the bottom six with Steven Lorentz, Scott Laughton, and Calle Jarnkrok has allowed Tavares to begin more shifts in the offensive zone.
His O-zone starts throughout the regular season were the lowest of his Leafs tenure at just 58.4%. However, that’s increased to 77.6% in the playoffs since there are now reliable defensive options lower in the lineup.
That’s also helped his line generate a little more offense and is a reason why his shot average has risen from 2.67 per game in the regular season to 3.25 in the playoffs, which is another reason why I think he goes Over the number tonight in a potential close-out game for the Buds.
Senators vs Maple Leafs same-game parlay (SGP)
John Tavares 3+ shots on goal
Auston Matthews 3+ shots on goal
Maple Leafs moneyline
We’ll continue to bet on the shots market and take Auston Matthews to also register 3+. The Leafs' captain leads the team with 15 shots in the series, averaging 3.75 per contest, hitting the number three times. I’m also expecting a Matthews moment tonight with his two days of rest.
For the final leg of my SGP, I’ll take the Leafs on the moneyline. Toronto is simply the better team and can’t afford to lose tonight without those playoff demon whispers of the past going from quiet to loud real quick.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Senators vs Maple Leafs odds
Senators vs Maple Leafs live odds
Senators vs Maple Leafs opening odds
- Puck line: Ottawa +1.5 (-190) | Toronto -1.5 (+154)
- Moneyline: Ottawa +140 | Toronto -170
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (-118) | Under 5.5 (-102)
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
Senators vs Maple Leafs trend
The Senators are 9-1 on the spread (+1.5) in the last 10 meetings between these two clubs. Find more NHL betting trends for Senators vs. Maple Leafs.
How to watch Senators vs Maple Leafs
| Location | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Tuesday, 4-29-2025 |
| Puck drop | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet, CBC |
Senators vs Maple Leafs latest injuries
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