The Vegas Golden Knights have scored eight goals through two games. Their offense is in a great spot to fill the net against a fatigued Vancouver Canucks team projected to be among the league's worst.
Impact forwards Mark Stone and Tomas Hertl headline my favorite NHL player props and NHL picks for Sunday, Oct. 4.
Today's best NHL player prop picks
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Brady Tkachuk Over 0.5 points |
63% |
 Mark Stone Over 0.5 assists |
50% |
| Tomas Hertl anytime goal |
33% |
Percentages courtesy of Novig, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Prop pick #1: Brady Tkachuk Over 0.5 points
I’m backing Brady Tkachuk to record his first point as a member of the Florida Panthers, and see value to 66%.
He has six scoring chances through two games despite Game 1 coming against the defending Stanley Cup Champions on banner-raising night, and losing his center in the middle of Game 2.
The Panthers had a few days off to make adjustments and practice with the new top line, which should set Tkachuk up for success in a prime matchup against the Anaheim Ducks.
They play high-paced, high-event hockey and allow a ton of chances. Just three teams conceded more expected goals last season, and rugged winger AJ Greer was their only notable external offseason addition.
For more, check out Todd Cordell's complete Panthers vs. Ducks predictions.
- Matchup: Florida Panthers vs. Anaheim Ducks
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- Location: Honda Center, Anaheim
- TV: SN+, ESPN+
Prop pick #2: Mark Stone Over 0.5 assists
Mark Stone is a target for an assist to 52%.
He dished out 45 helpers over 60 games last season and 48 in 66 appearances the year before. He’s an elite playmaker who consistently creates goals for his teammates.
He doesn’t have an assist through two games this year, but this is a fantastic spot to change that.
The Vancouver Canucks allowed 14 goals over their first two games before steadying the rudders against a putrid Calgary Flames team on Saturday.
The Canucks have allowed well over three expected goals per 60 minutes and will struggle to slow Stone and Vegas’ big guns while playing their third game in four nights.
Luc Leblanc has more on this showdown in his Golden Knights vs. Canucks predictions.
- Matchup: Vegas Golden Knights vs. Vancouver Canucks
- Time: 9 p.m. ET
- Location: Rogers Arena, Vancouver
- TV: SN+, ESPN+
Goal scorer pick: Tomas Hertl
I see fair value for Tomas Hertl closer to 37%.
He has seen an increased role with Ryan Craig behind the bench and looks like the Hertl we grew accustomed to in San Jose.
He leads the Vegas Golden Knights in shot attempts, shots on target, expected goals, and high-danger chances. Nobody on the roster is even close.
He’ll see cushy matchups against a thin Canucks forward core, while playing alongside high-end facilitators like Stone, Jack Eichel, and Shea Theodore on the No. 1 power play unit.
- Matchup: Vegas Golden Knights vs. Vancouver Canucks
- Time: 9 p.m. ET
- Location: Rogers Arena, Vancouver
- TV: SN+, ESPN+
- Prop picks: 5-7, -3.12 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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