Ottawa is playing its first game against a battle-tested Toronto team, which gives me the confidence to back the blue and white in my Senators vs. Maple Leafs prediction.
The Toronto Maple Leafs cap off a three-game homestand this week as a 52% favorite at Novig against the Ottawa Senators, and with a relatively new roster finally getting a chance to find some connectivity, I'll be riding with the team with the higher ceiling.
Tap into my NHL picks for Saturday night hockey, and let's stay hot after sweeping the board.
TOP PICK
Senators vs Maple Leafs prediction: Maple Leafs
It took a couple of games for the new-look Toronto Maple Leafs to find their footing. They have three new players in their top six alone (Kirill Marchenko, Jack Roslovic, and Gavin McKenna); now acclimated, I expect a clean brand of hockey against a team that hasn't yet suited up this season.
In the same breath, the Ottawa Senators also enter this season with a relatively new lineup. They dealt former captain Brady Tkachuk to the Florida Panthers in the offseason for a bag of picks and added William Eklund.
On the injury front, Artem Zub and Andre Burakovsky are out indefinitely. How will they look skating without their former franchise player for the first time in eight years? That remains to be seen.
I'm giving the Leafs the benefit of the doubt, as they're coming off their best game of the young season against the New York Islanders.
COVERS INTEL: The Leafs rank second in the NHL in high-danger shots on the power play, and with Ottawa one of the more penalized teams last year, this is an angle to exploit.
Senators vs Maple Leafs combo
With no points to his name yet, Auston Matthews should be hungry to find the scoresheet tonight, and that should translate into plenty of pucks on net. The Sens were one of the league's most penalized teams last season, which should give Matthews plenty of chances to fire away on the power play and help us cash this bet.
Meanwhile, Tim Stutzle will have to carry the offensive load for the Senators this year without Tkachuk. He plays in all situations and anchors the first power play unit. He went over this line 36 times last year - let's give him a shot.
Senators vs Maple Leafs combo
- Maple Leafs moneyline
- Auston Matthews 4+ SOG
- Tim Stutzle 3+ SOG
Senators vs Maple Leafs player prop: Auston Matthews 4+ SOG
Getting Matthews at 48% feels like a treat. He hasn't been firing the puck, but we have multiple ways to cash this one, either at 5-on-5 or on the man advantage. Playing alongside Marchenko will free him up and get him the open looks he needs this season. Let's watch that line bear fruit tonight.
Senators vs Maple Leafs goal scorer: William Nylander
William Nylander is fifth in the NHL in goals above expected and already has two to his name in two games this season. Simply put, he's been one of the best Leafs on the ice this season.
Coming off another 30-goal campaign and currently 14th in the NHL in shots attempted per 60, I expect Nylander to get his looks tonight.
- Top picks: 2-1, +0.95 units
- Combos: 1-2, +0.56 units
Senators vs Maple Leafs odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Moneyline: Senators 49% | Maple Leafs 52%
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (46%) | Under 6.5 (55%)
- Spread: Senators +1.5 (71%) | Maple Leafs -1.5 (30%)
For the full slate of NHL matchups, check out our NHL odds board!
Senators vs Maple Leafs trend
The Under is 7-0-1 in the Maple Leafs' last eight games played on two days rest. Find more NHL betting trends.
How to watch Senators vs Maple Leafs
| Location | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | SN |
Senators vs Maple Leafs latest injuries
Check out our NHL injuries page for updates on every team.
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