Dallas Stars defenseman Miro Heiskanen has been an offensive force on home ice, posting an impressive 27 points in his last 29 games at American Airlines Center.
With Dallas (61%) healthy favorites to beat the visiting Boston Bruins, I'm backing him to hit the scoresheet with my top Bruins vs. Stars prediction for tonight's game.
Read on for full analysis of my NHL picks for Tuesday, Oct. 20, with the puck drop set for 8 p.m. ET.
Bruins vs Stars prediction: Under 5.5
The Under is playable to 53%.
The Dallas Stars lead the league in 5-on-5 shot suppression, and it’s paying off. They've conceded just 1.11 goals per 60 minutes, easily the NHL’s best mark.
The Boston Bruins are also elite at keeping the puck out of the net. Only the Stars have given up fewer goals per game, in large part due to Jeremy Swayman.
Both Swayman and Jake Oettinger rank top-3 in goals saved above expected. With elite goaltending on both sides, and each team ranking outside the Top-20 in shots, goals should be very hard to come by.
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TOP PICK
Bruins vs Stars player prop: Miro Heiskanen Over 0.5 points
Miro Heiskanen has six points through eight games, and I like the star blueliner to record another one up to 60%.
The Bruins are a subpar shot suppression team at 5-on-5, ranking 23rd in shots on goal allowed per 60 minutes. Heiskanen plays a ton of minutes and quietly sits second on the team in even-strength shot attempts.
He also quarterbacks a dangerous power play that ranks top-6 in both shot volume and shot quality.
Heiskanen recorded a point in 67% of his home games last season, and that rate climbed to 72% when Dallas was favored at 60% or higher — a threshold it meets tonight.
COVERS INTEL: Heiskanen is tied with Roman Josi for fifth in points among defensemen over the past 30 home games dating back to last season.Bruins vs Stars combo
I’m using reverse correlation by combining the Under with Heiskanen and Wyatt Johnston to each record a point.
Heiskanen has hit the scoresheet in 10 of his last 14 games dating to the end of last season. He leads the Stars in ice time at more than 25 minutes per game and will have every opportunity to capitalize on this pace-up spot for Dallas.
Johnston has points in just two games this season after doing so in 65% of his appearances a season ago.
He deserves better results, and steady ice time alongside Mikko Rantanen will help him right the ship sooner rather than later.
Bruins vs Stars combo
- Under 5.5
- Miro Heiskanen Over 0.5 points
- Wyatt Johnston Over 0.5 points
Bruins vs Stars goal scorer: Wyatt Johnston
Johnston is coming off a 45-goal campaign and owns an exceptional 16.8% finishing rate for his career.
He’s a top-tier goal-scorer who has yet to find the back of the net despite generating more than 2.9 expected goals and increasing his shot-attempt volume.
Of the 77 players with at least 2.9 expected goals, Johnston is one of just two without a goal.
The Bruins are 16th in slot shots allowed, where Johnston generates much of his shot volume.
The Bruins also rank ninth in 5-on-5 pace and should force the Stars, who sit dead last, into a higher-event game than usual.
- Top picks: 11-7, +2.87 units
- Combos: 2-16, -8.0 units
Bruins vs Stars odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Moneyline: Bruins 40% | Stars 61%
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (52%) | Under 5.5 (49%)
- Spread: Bruins +1.5 (63%) | Stars -1.5 (38%)
For the full slate of NHL matchups, check out our NHL odds board!
Bruins vs Stars trend
Dallas has hit the game total Under in all eight games (+8.0 units, 90% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends.
How to watch Bruins vs Stars
| Location | American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas |
| Date | Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Bruins vs Stars latest injuries
Check out our NHL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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