Thanksgiving rolls into Black Friday, and your schedule is absolutely blitzed: family, friends, wall-to-wall football, and zero time to obsess over every moneyline.
That’s where we come in. For Week 13’s holiday slate, we’ve handed the controls to ChatGPT to deliver sweat-free, straight-up NFL picks so you don’t have to.
No spreadsheets, no frantic odds shopping between bites. Just a clear side on every game while you focus on the important stuff, like loading up your plate with turkey for the third time. Bon appetit!
Week 13 NFL moneyline picks
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Packers vs  Lions |
-146 |
 Chiefs vs  Cowboys |
-180 |
 Bengals vs  Ravens |
-335 |
 Bears vs  Eagles |
-330 |
 Jaguars vs  Titans |
-330 |
 Falcons vs  Jets |
-148 |
 Rams vs  Panthers |
-700 |
 Saints vs  Dolphins |
-280 |
 Cardinals vs  Buccaneers |
-172 |
 49ers vs  Browns |
-230 |
 Texans vs  Colts |
-215 |
 Vikings vs  Seahawks |
-820 |
 Bills vs  Steelers |
+164 |
 Raiders vs  Chargers |
-560 |
 Broncos vs  Commanders |
-340 |
 Giants vs  Patriots |
-430 |
Lines courtesy of FanDuel.
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Packers vs Lions: Lions (-146)
Detroit is priced as a modest home favorite on Thanksgiving, and the number reflects market respect for the Lions’ overall profile compared to a still-volatile Packers team.
With a relatively tight spread and total near 50, you’re betting on which offense you trust more to sustain drives and avoid mistakes in a high-visibility spot. I’m siding with the home team the market already prefers.
Chiefs vs Cowboys: Chiefs (-180)
Kansas City is a road favorite in Jerry World, which tells you how much the market still leans toward the Chiefs’ ceiling in a potential shootout.
Dallas is live as a home dog, but they’re also being asked to keep pace with one of the league’s highest-upside passing attacks. For bettors who don’t want to sweat a 3.5-point spread in a 50+ total environment, laying the moneyline with the proven contender is the simpler angle.
Bengals vs Ravens: Ravens (-335)
Baltimore is a heavy home favorite on Thanksgiving night, with a touchdown spread and a total in the low 50s. The market clearly views the Ravens as the more complete team right now, while Cincinnati is priced like a volatile underdog that needs big offensive plays to keep this close.
With that kind of moneyline, this is more parlay material than straight-bet territory, but if you’re picking a side on the winner alone, the favorite is the logical call.
Bears vs Eagles: Eagles (-330)
The market is effectively saying Philly’s underlying metrics and two-way balance project better than the Bears’ record does. For bettors, that suggests Philly ML as a “safe” anchor in multi-leg plays, even if you’re hesitant to lay the full 7 points.
Jaguars vs Titans: Jaguars (-330)
Jacksonville hits the road as a strong favorite in an AFC South matchup, reflecting a big gap in form between a 7-4 Jags team and a 1-10 Titans squad struggling on both sides of the ball.
The spread sits at -6.5, so moneyline bettors are paying a premium to strip away any late-game variance. In a divisional game, I’d usually look for reasons to take the dog, but here the market’s confidence in Jacksonville is hard to fade.
Falcons vs Jets: Falcons (-148)
The market expects a grinder: low 40s total, small spread, modest favorite. That often tilts bettors toward the plus money, especially with a Jets defense that can muddy things up. Still, Atlanta has quietly been competent against the spread and is being priced as the more trustworthy offense in a game where 20-23 points might win it.
I lean into that offensive edge rather than hoping the underdog offense suddenly spikes.
Rams vs Panthers: Rams (-700)
This is one of the most lopsided moneylines of Week 13. The Rams are double-digit favorites with a dominant price that effectively says anything but a comfortable LA win would be an upset.
For casual bettors, -700 is usually better suited to parlays than stand-alone wagers; the risk/reward is thin for a single-game play. Carolina’s big plus number is tempting, but it also reflects serious concerns about their ability to keep pace for four quarters.
Saints vs Dolphins: Dolphins (-280)
Miami is a sizable home favorite, laying 5.5 with a moneyline that reflects faith in their explosive skill talent and home-field advantage in the heat. New Orleans’ price tells you they need some combination of defensive disruption and Dolphins mistakes to steal this.
With a total in the low 40s, the market isn’t projecting an all-out track meet, but even in a more controlled game script, Miami’s offensive ceiling gives them multiple paths to a win.
Cardinals vs Buccaneers: Buccaneers (-172)
This price suggests a competitive game but with Tampa Bay holding clear edges as a home favorite. The Bucs are laying a field goal with a total in the mid-40s, hinting at a moderately scoring game where one or two key drives could swing the result.
Arizona backers get a decent plus-number, but the market is skeptical of the Cardinals’ week-to-week consistency. I’ll ride with the home side that’s being trusted to manage the game and capitalize on short fields.
49ers vs Browns: 49ers (-230)
This is one of the week’s sharper contrasts: San Francisco’s offense versus a Browns team priced with one of the lowest implied totals on the slate.
The total in the mid-30s suggests a defensive, field-position game where each long drive is at a premium. That typically favors the more efficient, multi-dimensional offense, and the 49ers fit that description in the market’s eyes. Laying the juice isn’t cheap, but if you believe the Browns struggle to move the ball, the Niners ML is aligned with that view.
Texans vs Colts: Colts (-215)
Indy is a solid home favorite in what projects as one of the week’s more physical matchups. The Colts’ 8-3 record and division lead help explain why they’re laying more than a field goal and sitting north of -200 on the moneyline.
Houston has been scrappy and brings defensive juice, but the price indicates they’re more spoiler than favorite right now. If you think this stays close but ultimately tilts toward the better record at home, the Colts ML fits that thesis.
Vikings vs Seahawks: Seahawks (-820)
Seattle is the week’s heaviest favorite, with an 11.5-point spread and a moneyline north of -800 that assumes control in all three phases. Minnesota’s long odds mirror a low implied team total and limited trust in their offense against a tough environment in Seattle.
From a betting perspective, this is another spot where the favorite’s ML is primarily a parlay piece. If you’re simply picking a winner, though, it’s hard to argue against the clear market stance.
Bills vs Steelers: Steelers (+164)
Pittsburgh’s path is classic Steelers football: ugly, physical, and low scoring. They’ll need the defensive front to win early downs, force Buffalo into third-and-long, and hit Josh Allen enough to generate a turnover or two.
Offensively, a committed run game and quick passes could shorten the contest, limiting total possessions and keeping the Bills’ offense cold on the sideline. If the Steelers stay within one score into the fourth, their style gives them a real chance to grind out a late, opportunistic win.
Raiders vs Chargers: Chargers (-560)
The Chargers are big home favorites against a Raiders team that’s been leaking pressure and just changed offensive coordinators.
The market clearly expects LA’s offense to find answers against a struggling opponent, even if the Chargers themselves haven’t been the most trustworthy as large favorites in recent seasons. For pure “who wins?” purposes, the moneyline strongly points to the Bolts.
Broncos vs Commanders: Broncos (-340)
Sunday Night Football gives us a cross-conference clash where Denver is a sizeable road favorite, laying 6.5 points. That price tags the Broncos as the more trustworthy offense and the defense more likely to generate game-changing plays.
Washington’s plus-money profile suggests they’re viewed as feisty but flawed — capable of stretches of strong play, but not four quarters of it against better competition. If you’re building a primetime parlay, Denver ML fits as the anchor leg.
Giants vs Patriots: Patriots (-430)
Monday night closes the week with a double-digit favorite at home. New England has one of the higher implied team totals of the week, while the Giants are priced among the lowest, reflecting serious offensive questions.
In betting terms, it’s a classic “hold your nose or pass” underdog; the number is big for a reason. Unless you’re intentionally hunting longshots, the moneyline pick here lines up with the market.
ChatGPT has gone 121-56 so far this season for +54 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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