Week 11 drops us into the heart of the playoff race and the middle of the betting grind. With injuries piling up and market lines tightening, this is the part of the season where small edges matter and casual mistakes get expensive.
It's a lot to dissect, which is why we turned to ChatGPT for help. We fed it FanDuel’s latest NFL odds and instructed the large language model to pick straight-up moneyline winners.
The AI bot weighed measurable inputs like recent form, travel and rest, matchup tendencies, and situational performance before determining who will be cashing tickets.
Love it or fade it, the NFL picks are in and the receipts are ready. Let’s ride the algorithm all the way to profit!
Week 11 NFL moneyline picks
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Jets vs  Patriots |
-900 |
 Commanders vs  Dolphins |
-156 |
 Chargers vs  Jaguars |
-156 |
 Buccaneers vs  Bills |
-270 |
 Bears vs  Vikings |
-168 |
 Packers vs  Giants |
-355 |
 Texans vs  Titans |
-355 |
 Panthers vs  Falcons |
-180 |
 Bengals vs  Steelers |
-230 |
 49ers vs  Cardinals |
-168 |
 Seahawks vs  Rams |
-164 |
 Chiefs vs  Broncos |
-205 |
 Ravens vs  Browns |
-450 |
 Lions vs  Eagles |
-144 |
 Cowboys vs  Raiders |
-196 |
Lines courtesy of FanDuel.
Jets vs Patriots: Patriots (-900)
New England is laying a massive number for a reason: it's 8–2, riding a seven-game win streak, and sitting near the top of recent power rankings.
Drake Maye and a well-coached defense should overwhelm a Jets team that’s still talent-light on offense despite Breece Hall’s explosiveness. With a -900 tag, this is a parlay piece or stay-away rather than a solo bet, but the straight-up pick is simple: Patriots hold serve at home.
Read our full Jets vs. Patriots predictions.
Commanders vs Dolphins: Dolphins (-156)
Neutral-site games add volatility, but FanDuel’s -156 on Miami implies around a 60% win probability. Washington has been inconsistent and is traveling overseas to face a Dolphins team that betting markets still respect as the more efficient offense, reflected in the short favorite role and a total around 47.5.
Travel, unfamiliar stadium sight lines, and kicking conditions can create weird swings, so this isn’t as “safe” as the price might suggest, but pick the Dolphins.
Chargers vs Jaguars: Chargers (-156)
The market expects Justin Herbert to carve up a Jacksonville defense that ranks near the bottom of the league against the pass.
The Chargers’ aerial firepower matches up well here, and their 7–3 record reflects an offense that has stayed productive despite injuries. This line is closer than some might anticipate, suggesting respect for Jacksonville at home, but AI leans with the superior quarterback and passing game. At around -156, the Chargers are a reasonable straight bet or moneyline anchor.
Buccaneers vs Bills: Bills (-270)
Both teams sit at 6–3, but Buffalo is treated as the clearly superior side at home, priced around -270 on the moneyline.
James Cook and a still-dangerous passing attack give the Bills more paths to 27+ points, while Tampa leans on emerging star Emeka Egbuka in a less consistent offense. Upsets happen in Orchard Park, but the spread and moneyline reflect the talent gap. Straight up, the pick is the Bills at home.
Bears vs Vikings: Vikings (-168)
Despite Chicago’s 6–3 record, FanDuel has Minnesota as the favorite at home, reflecting respect for the Vikings’ offense and the challenge of playing indoors at U.S. Bank Stadium.
The Bears’ improvement is real, but they’ve benefited from weaker opponents and close-game luck. With the Vikes coming off a tough loss to Baltimore, a bounce-back spot at home makes sense. At -168, Minnesota is more of a measured play than a slam dunk, but AI leans purple.
Packers vs Giants: Packers (-355)
Green Bay travels east as a sizable favorite, powered by Josh Jacobs and an offense that’s vastly more dynamic than New York’s.
The Giants’ 2–8 record and bottom-tier offense make it hard to justify a moneyline upset at +290 unless you’re purely chasing variance. For casual bettors, the safer route is to treat the Packers as a foundational leg in parlays rather than laying -355 straight, but from a pure “who wins?” standpoint, Green Bay is the clear side.
Texans vs Titans: Texans (-355)
This line tells the story: Houston is a near 3-to-1 favorite on the road against a Titans team that’s 1–8 and struggling badly on offense.
Laying -355 on a road side is normally a red flag for casual bettors, but Tennessee’s lack of explosive weapons makes the upset path narrow. If you’re a risk-averse player, Texans moneyline fits best in parlays or round robins, but Houston is the straightforward call.
Panthers vs Falcons: Falcons (-180)
Atlanta is a modest home favorite with Bijan Robinson headlining an offense that still has a higher ceiling than Carolina’s.
The Panthers have been feisty but inconsistent, and asking them to win outright on the road against a team that can lean on the run and crowd noise is a big request. Laying nearly -200 on a team with a losing record is never comfortable, but in a coin-flip division race, the Falcons’ playmaking edge tilts the AI toward the favorite.
Bengals vs Steelers: Steelers (-230)
Pittsburgh is a sizable home favorite behind a 5–4 record and a solid defensive identity, while Cincinnati limps in at 3–6 despite having Ja’Marr Chase.
The Steelers’ offense can still be clunky, which makes laying -230 uncomfortable, but the Bengals’ inconsistency and turnover issues have turned them into underdogs the market is fading. If you’re a dog-chaser, +205 is tempting, but for a straight-up prediction, Pittsburgh’s defense and home field edge get the nod.
49ers vs Cardinals: 49ers (-168)
Both teams are coming off losses, but the market still trusts San Francisco more than Arizona, even on the road. Blessed with an offense loaded with weapons, the Niners’ ceiling far exceeds that of the 3–6 Cardinals.
At -168, San Francisco is in that awkward mid-favorite range, but in a straight-up pick context, their pass rush and offensive talent advantage make them the preferred side over an Arizona team in transition.
Seahawks vs Rams: Rams (-164)
This is one of Week 11’s marquee showdowns: the Rams and Seahawks are both 7–2 and ranked near the top of several power rankings.
FanDuel still gives the edge to Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua at home, installing them as short favorites. Given the Rams’ balanced play and Stafford’s MVP-level season, bettors should ride with the home side in what profiles as a high-scoring war.
Chiefs vs Broncos: Chiefs (-205)
Denver is 8–2 with a 10-game home win streak, yet still finds itself as a home underdog to the 5–4 Chiefs.
That tells you how much respect the market still has for Patrick Mahomes. Bo Nix and the Broncos have been winning with defense and timely offense, but Kansas City’s track record in big AFC West games is hard to ignore. In a tight, playoff-caliber matchup, bettors should lean toward Mahomes and the betting favorite, even away from Arrowhead.
Ravens vs Browns: Ravens (-450)
Baltimore is a heavy road favorite against a Browns team stuck near the bottom of power rankings and struggling to score.
A price north of -400 leaves little value for casual bettors unless you’re pairing it with other legs, but the matchup leans clearly toward the Ravens’ superior quarterback play and coaching. Cleveland can ugly things up with defense, yet its offensive woes make an outright upset unlikely.
Lions vs Eagles: Eagles (-144)
This NFC showdown is priced much tighter than the afternoon games, with Philadelphia a small home favorite over a dangerous Detroit team powered by Jahmyr Gibbs.
The Eagles’ 7–2 record and home primetime edge give them a slight edge in projected win probability, and their pass rush could be the difference against Detroit’s offense. At -144, this is a classic “good team at home, short number” spot. Side with the defending NFC champs, but expect a thriller.
Cowboys vs Raiders: Cowboys (-196)
Despite a 3–5–1 record, Dallas boasts the league’s fourth-ranked scoring offense, while Las Vegas sits near the bottom of the league in points per game.
That explains why the Cowboys are road favorites in prime time. Dak Prescott and this offense should pressure a Raiders team that hasn’t consistently kept up on the scoreboard. -196 is a bit steep for a road side with a losing record, but from a pure prediction standpoint, Dallas is poised to outscore Las Vegas.
ChatGPT has gone 101-47 so far this season for +44.82 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
