The Green Bay Packers can kick an NFC North rival when they’re down when the Minnesota Vikings haul a two-game skid to Lambeau Field in Week 12.
Green Bay got back on track after nixing a two-game slide of their own on Sunday, but looked far from dominant against a third-string QB. The Cheeseheads also have some injury concerns coming into this divisional battle.
Here are my early Vikings vs. Packers predictions and NFL picks for November 23.
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Vikings vs Packers predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Vikings vs Packers spread pick: Green Bay -6.5
Most mainstream operators are sitting just shy of a touchdown with the Green Bay Packers, waiting on word from RB Josh Jacobs. Some sharper books are at a clean Green Bay -6.
Jacobs left Sunday’s win over the Giants with a knee injury, and while the team said he avoided a major ailment, his status for Sunday is up in the air. The Packers’ depth chart is already down TE Tucker Kraft for the season.
While eyes are on Jacobs, the big question coming into Week 12 is around Minnesota Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy. The first-year starter has looked bad since his return under center three weeks ago and ranks Bottom 5 among 32 starters in many passer metrics since Week 9.
He travels to Lambeau Field to face a Green Bay defense that is able to get consistent pressure on rival passers without needing to blitz. The Packers sit among the leaders in hurries, QB hits, and sacks. They rank No. 5 in pass rush at PFF.
We are seeing the vig on Packers -6.5 shorten, so a move to -6 could be coming. If you like the Cheeseheads, wait and get that stop at the key number.
Early Vikings vs Packers total pick: Under 41.5
This total opened just shy of the key number of 44 points and instantly took Under action. Jacobs’ injury is helping that move, but this is more about the Vikings offense struggling to move the chains.
McCarthy is constantly missing open receivers and his completion rate falls off a cliff when under pressure (48.9%), with his catchable ball rate sinking to 38.7%. He’s still trying to push the ball past the sticks (highest intended air yards) but faces a Green Bay secondary allowing the fewest “big plays” with just 21 completions of 20 yards or more allowed all season.
The Vikings counter on defense with an aggressive approach, blitzing at the highest rate in the league. Those extra rushers have helped cook up the second highest pressure rate per dropback and a Top 3 pass rush win rate at ESPN.
Packers quarterback Jordan Love is one of the better QBs versus blitz-heavy schemes and put some big numbers up against Brian Flores’ stop unit last season. However, he’s already missing his favorite pressure release in Kraft. If Jacobs is out, he will also be short his top checkdown option when pressure comes.
Seeing the early Under opinion indicates sharp play right out of the gate, so bookies may still drop this number to the key spot of 41 points to drum up interest in the Over. Weather in Wisconsin looks fine, so Jacobs’ status could add or subtract a half a point later in the week.
Vikings vs Packers odds
- Vikings vs. Packers spread: Packers -6.5
- Vikings vs. Packers moneyline: Vikings +245, Packers -300
- Vikings vs. Packers Over/Under: 41.5
How to watch Vikings vs Packers
- Vikings vs. Packers matchup
- Date: Sunday, November 23, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- City: Green Bay
- Venue: Lambeau Field
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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