NFL Player Props and Best Projections

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GAME & PLAYER PROPS PROJECTIONS DIFF +EV RATING ANALYSIS BEST ODDS
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN NYG @ LA
Matthew Stafford logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
M. Stafford (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.09 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
27.2% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Matthew Stafford logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
M. Stafford (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.09 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
27.2% EV

ANALYSIS

Matthew Stafford has been one of the best touchdown passers in the league since the start of last season, averaging an exceptional 2.19 per game while grading out in the 100th percentile.. Matthew Stafford has rushed for 0.00 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the lowest figures in the NFL when it comes to quarterbacks (2nd percentile).. The New York Giants cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-worst group of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

+2500
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RUSHING YARDS CAR @ ATL
Cooper Rush logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
C. Rush (QB) o0.5 Rushing Yards
5.11 OVER PROJECTION
+4.6 DIFFERENCE
27.2% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Cooper Rush logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
C. Rush (QB) o0.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

5.11 OVER PROJECTION
+4.6 DIFFERENCE
27.2% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Falcons to be the most run-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 44.2% run rate.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see 132.6 plays on offense called: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.. While Cooper Rush has garnered 0.9% of his offense's carries in games he has played since the start of last season, the projections expect him to be a more integral piece of Atlanta's run game in this game at 6.9%.. Opposing offenses have run for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in the league (141 per game) versus the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season.. When it comes to the safeties' role in run defense, Carolina's unit has been exceptional last year, profiling as the 5th-best in the NFL.

o0.5 +136
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RUSHING YARDS IND @ KC
Daniel Jones logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
D. Jones (QB) o10.5 Rushing Yards
20.63 OVER PROJECTION
+10.1 DIFFERENCE
27.2% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Daniel Jones logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
D. Jones (QB) o10.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

20.63 OVER PROJECTION
+10.1 DIFFERENCE
27.2% EV

ANALYSIS

The Colts have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions this week.. With a terrific tally of 6.3 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (83rd percentile), Daniel Jones has been as one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season.

o8.5 -108
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RUSHING YARDS PHI @ TEN
Tony Pollard logo
Tennessee Titans image thumbnail
T. Pollard (RB) o44.5 Rushing Yards
59.94 OVER PROJECTION
+15.4 DIFFERENCE
27.2% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Tony Pollard logo
Tennessee Titans image thumbnail
T. Pollard (RB) o44.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

59.94 OVER PROJECTION
+15.4 DIFFERENCE
27.2% EV

ANALYSIS

At the moment, the 3rd-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Tennessee Titans.. In this week's contest, Tony Pollard is expected by the model to secure a spot in the 84th percentile among running backs with 15.5 rush attempts.. Tony Pollard has been given 64.9% of his team's run game usage since the start of last season, putting him in the 96th percentile among RBs.. Tony Pollard has grinded out 49.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in football when it comes to RBs (83rd percentile).. Tony Pollard ranks as one of the leading running backs in the league at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging an excellent 3.21 yards-after-contact last year while checking in at the 75th percentile.

o40.5 -135
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RUSHING YARDS WAS @ DAL
Dak Prescott logo
Dallas Cowboys image thumbnail
D. Prescott (QB) o10.5 Rushing Yards
15.65 OVER PROJECTION
+5.1 DIFFERENCE
26.88% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Dak Prescott logo
Dallas Cowboys image thumbnail
D. Prescott (QB) o10.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

15.65 OVER PROJECTION
+5.1 DIFFERENCE
26.88% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 4-point advantage, the Cowboys are favored in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal game plan.. The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 27.12 seconds per snap.. The opposing side have run for the 6th-most adjusted yards in the league (138 per game) vs. the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season.. The Washington Commanders linebackers rank as the 2nd-worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

o7.5 -111
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RUSHING YARDS PIT @ NE
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o0.5 Rushing Yards
10.31 OVER PROJECTION
+9.8 DIFFERENCE
26.85% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o0.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

10.31 OVER PROJECTION
+9.8 DIFFERENCE
26.85% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers offense to be the 2nd-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 25.86 seconds per snap.. Our trusted projections expect Aaron Rodgers to be a more important option in his team's ground game this week (10.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (3.7% in games he has played).. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, New England's collection of DTs has been terrible since the start of last season, grading out as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

o0.5 -104
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN LV @ LAC
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.3 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
26.83% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.3 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
26.83% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to be the 8th-most pass-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.2% red zone pass rate.. The 7th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers since the start of last season (a colossal 59.5 per game on average).. With a terrific ratio of 1.50 per game (78th percentile), Justin Herbert rates among the top touchdown passers in the NFL since the start of last season.

+500
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RECEIVING YARDS WAS @ DAL
Stefon Diggs logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
S. Diggs (WR) o47.5 Receiving Yards
67.01 OVER PROJECTION
+19.5 DIFFERENCE
26.67% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Stefon Diggs logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
S. Diggs (WR) o47.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

67.01 OVER PROJECTION
+19.5 DIFFERENCE
26.67% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's spread suggests a passing game script for the Commanders, who are -4-point underdogs.. In terms of a defense's influence on tempo, at 28.44 seconds per play, the predictive model expects the Commanders to be the 10th-slowest in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment.. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.. Opposing offenses have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game versus the Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.. Stefon Diggs comes in as one of the top WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 53.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.

o45.5 -135
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RUSHING YARDS SEA @ ARI
Jacoby Brissett logo
Arizona Cardinals image thumbnail
J. Brissett (QB) o10.5 Rushing Yards
17.19 OVER PROJECTION
+6.7 DIFFERENCE
26.55% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jacoby Brissett logo
Arizona Cardinals image thumbnail
J. Brissett (QB) o10.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

17.19 OVER PROJECTION
+6.7 DIFFERENCE
26.55% EV

ANALYSIS

The 4th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Arizona Cardinals since the start of last season (a staggering 60.0 per game on average).

o9.5 -110
BetMGM logo
RECEIVING YARDS WAS @ DAL
Jake Ferguson logo
Dallas Cowboys image thumbnail
J. Ferguson (TE) o27.5 Receiving Yards
38.44 OVER PROJECTION
+10.9 DIFFERENCE
26.52% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Jake Ferguson logo
Dallas Cowboys image thumbnail
J. Ferguson (TE) o27.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

38.44 OVER PROJECTION
+10.9 DIFFERENCE
26.52% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Cowboys to be the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 61.5% pass rate.. The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 27.12 seconds per snap.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.. Jake Ferguson has run a route on 73.6% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 84th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. Since the start of last season, the deficient Commanders defense has surrendered a massive 67.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing TEs: the 2nd-most in the league.

o25.5 -140
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PASSING YARDS CIN @ HOU
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o249.5 Passing Yards
294.12 OVER PROJECTION
+44.6 DIFFERENCE
26.49% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o249.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

294.12 OVER PROJECTION
+44.6 DIFFERENCE
26.49% EV

ANALYSIS

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 68.4% of their plays: the greatest frequency among all teams this week.. The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.. This week, Joe Burrow is projected by the projections to wind up with the most pass attempts among all QBs with 40.0. . With a fantastic rate of 202.0 adjusted passing yards per game (75th percentile), Joe Burrow rates among the best QBs in the league since the start of last season.. The Houston cornerbacks grade out as the worst unit in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

o242.5 -115
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PASSING YARDS WAS @ DAL
Jayden Daniels logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
J. Daniels (QB) o220.5 Passing Yards
259.07 OVER PROJECTION
+38.6 DIFFERENCE
26.44% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Jayden Daniels logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
J. Daniels (QB) o220.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

259.07 OVER PROJECTION
+38.6 DIFFERENCE
26.44% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's spread suggests a passing game script for the Commanders, who are -4-point underdogs.. In terms of a defense's influence on tempo, at 28.44 seconds per play, the predictive model expects the Commanders to be the 10th-slowest in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment.. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.. Opposing offenses have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game versus the Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.. Since the start of last season, the poor Cowboys defense has yielded a massive 249.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing QBs: the 2nd-most in the league.

o220.5 -110
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RECEIVING YARDS CAR @ ATL
Kyle Pitts Sr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
K. Pitts Sr. (TE) o31.5 Receiving Yards
47.14 OVER PROJECTION
+15.6 DIFFERENCE
26.43% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Kyle Pitts Sr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
K. Pitts Sr. (TE) o31.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

47.14 OVER PROJECTION
+15.6 DIFFERENCE
26.43% EV

ANALYSIS

The Atlanta Falcons may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) as a result of being be rolling out backup quarterback Cooper Rush.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see 132.6 plays on offense called: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. Kyle Pitts has run a route on 90.8% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 99th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. Our trusted projections expect Kyle Pitts to accrue 6.3 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to tight ends.

o29.5 -115
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RUSHING YARDS MIN @ CHI
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) o10.5 Rushing Yards
16.04 OVER PROJECTION
+5.5 DIFFERENCE
26.43% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) o10.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

16.04 OVER PROJECTION
+5.5 DIFFERENCE
26.43% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 48.3% rate of rushing the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 10th-most run-centric offense in football has been the Vikings.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to have 132.7 offensive plays run: the highest number among all games this week.. The Vikings have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game effectiveness when facing windier weather in this week's game.. The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.. The Chicago Bears defense has had the 8th-worst efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, giving up 5.04 adjusted yards-per-carry.

o7.5 -123
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RECEIVING YARDS CIN @ HOU
Kayshon Boutte logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
K. Boutte (WR) o35.5 Receiving Yards
53.21 OVER PROJECTION
+17.7 DIFFERENCE
26.37% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Kayshon Boutte logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
K. Boutte (WR) o35.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

53.21 OVER PROJECTION
+17.7 DIFFERENCE
26.37% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Texans to be the 7th-most pass-focused team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 61.9% pass rate.. With regard to a defense's influence on tempo, at 28.05 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-quickest in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.. With an exceptional 11.8 adjusted yards per target (91st percentile) since the start of last season, Kayshon Boutte has been as one of the top pass-catching WRs in football.. The Bengals pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (67.3%) versus wide receivers since the start of last season (67.3%).

o33.5 -118
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RUSHING YARDS CLE @ TB
Quinshon Judkins logo
Cleveland Browns image thumbnail
Q. Judkins (RB) o47.5 Rushing Yards
66.31 OVER PROJECTION
+18.8 DIFFERENCE
26.37% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Quinshon Judkins logo
Cleveland Browns image thumbnail
Q. Judkins (RB) o47.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

66.31 OVER PROJECTION
+18.8 DIFFERENCE
26.37% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Browns as the 10th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 44.9% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

o45.5 -140
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PASSING YARDS CIN @ HOU
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o218.5 Passing Yards
253.09 OVER PROJECTION
+34.6 DIFFERENCE
26.35% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o218.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

253.09 OVER PROJECTION
+34.6 DIFFERENCE
26.35% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Texans to be the 7th-most pass-focused team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 61.9% pass rate.. With regard to a defense's influence on tempo, at 28.05 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-quickest in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.. In this week's contest, C.J. Stroud is predicted by the predictive model to have the 9th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 35.4. . Opposing QBs have passed for the 5th-most adjusted yards in football (243.0 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season.

o215.5 -115
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RECEIVING YARDS CAR @ ATL
Drake London logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
D. London (WR) o57.5 Receiving Yards
74.72 OVER PROJECTION
+17.2 DIFFERENCE
26.35% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Drake London logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
D. London (WR) o57.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

74.72 OVER PROJECTION
+17.2 DIFFERENCE
26.35% EV

ANALYSIS

The Atlanta Falcons may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) as a result of being be rolling out backup quarterback Cooper Rush.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see 132.6 plays on offense called: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The predictive model expects Drake London to garner 9.6 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.. With an outstanding 63.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (95th percentile) since the start of last season, Drake London rates among the top pass-catching WRs in the league.

o54.5 -114
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ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN PIT @ NE
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.08 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
26.32% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.08 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
26.32% EV

ANALYSIS

The Steelers are a 5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. The projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 64.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the most pass-centric team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.1% red zone pass rate.. The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers offense to be the 2nd-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 25.86 seconds per snap.. In this contest, Aaron Rodgers is forecasted by the projections to wind up with the 2nd-most pass attempts among all QBs with 38.3.

+2500
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PASSING YARDS PIT @ NE
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o204.5 Passing Yards
242.07 OVER PROJECTION
+37.6 DIFFERENCE
26.26% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o204.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

242.07 OVER PROJECTION
+37.6 DIFFERENCE
26.26% EV

ANALYSIS

The Steelers are a 5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. The projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 64.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers offense to be the 2nd-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 25.86 seconds per snap.. In this contest, Aaron Rodgers is forecasted by the projections to wind up with the 2nd-most pass attempts among all QBs with 38.5. . Since the start of last season, the weak Patriots defense has conceded a monstrous 73.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 6th-highest rate in the NFL.

o203.5 -114
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RUSHING YARDS MIA @ SF
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) o12.5 Rushing Yards
21.47 OVER PROJECTION
+9.0 DIFFERENCE
26.26% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) o12.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

21.47 OVER PROJECTION
+9.0 DIFFERENCE
26.26% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 13-point advantage, the 49ers are a heavy favorite this week, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the 49ers to run on 48.2% of their chances: the 5th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Brock Purdy's rushing efficiency (6.20 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league since the start of last season (76th percentile among quarterbacks).. Since the start of last season, the anemic Dolphins run defense has surrendered a monstrous 141.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing squads: the 2nd-worst in the NFL.

o12.5 -115
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RECEIVING YARDS CIN @ HOU
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) o41.5 Receiving Yards
54.81 OVER PROJECTION
+13.3 DIFFERENCE
26.2% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
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Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) o41.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

54.81 OVER PROJECTION
+13.3 DIFFERENCE
26.2% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Texans to be the 7th-most pass-focused team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 61.9% pass rate.. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Houston Texans are predicted by our trusted projection set to run 64.6 offensive plays in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.. The most plays in the NFL have been run by the Texans since the start of last season (a monstrous 60.8 per game on average).. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.. The Cincinnati Bengals defense has surrendered the most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (81.0) to tight ends since the start of last season.

o41.5 -114
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RECEIVING YARDS IND @ KC
Josh Downs logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
J. Downs (WR) o36.5 Receiving Yards
51.75 OVER PROJECTION
+15.3 DIFFERENCE
26.19% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
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Josh Downs logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
J. Downs (WR) o36.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

51.75 OVER PROJECTION
+15.3 DIFFERENCE
26.19% EV

ANALYSIS

The Colts are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts to pass on 0.0% of their opportunities: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.. In this week's contest, Josh Downs is anticipated by the projection model to position himself in the 88th percentile among wideouts with 7.3 targets.. The Colts offensive line grades out as the best in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.. Josh Downs ranks as one of the worst wide receivers in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year while grading out in the 1st percentile.

o36.5 -115
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RECEIVING YARDS MIA @ SF
Greg Dulcich logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
G. Dulcich (TE) o23.5 Receiving Yards
36.07 OVER PROJECTION
+12.6 DIFFERENCE
26.18% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Greg Dulcich logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
G. Dulcich (TE) o23.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

36.07 OVER PROJECTION
+12.6 DIFFERENCE
26.18% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a giant -13.5-point underdog in this game.. The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.. With a remarkable 52.4% Route Participation% (79th percentile) since the start of last season, Greg Dulcich stands among the TEs with the most usage in football.. In this contest, Greg Dulcich is expected by the predictive model to finish in the 76th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.6 targets.. Greg Dulcich ranks as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL among tight ends, catching a fantastic 83.5% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 91st percentile.

o20.5 -150
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RECEIVING YARDS PHI @ TEN
Carnell Tate logo
Tennessee Titans image thumbnail
C. Tate (WR) o42.5 Receiving Yards
52.43 OVER PROJECTION
+9.9 DIFFERENCE
26.18% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Carnell Tate logo
Tennessee Titans image thumbnail
C. Tate (WR) o42.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

52.43 OVER PROJECTION
+9.9 DIFFERENCE
26.18% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Titans being a giant -7-point underdog in this game.. The predictive model expects the Tennessee Titans as the 6th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 59.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is expected by the projections to see 130.1 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.. Last year, the feeble Philadelphia Eagles defense has surrendered the most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing wide receivers: a colossal 0.00 YAC.. When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Philadelphia's CB corps has been easily exploitable last year, profiling as the 7th-worst in the NFL.

o39.5 -120
BetMGM logo
RUSHING YARDS GB @ NYJ
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) o7.5 Rushing Yards
17.53 OVER PROJECTION
+10.0 DIFFERENCE
26.18% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) o7.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

17.53 OVER PROJECTION
+10.0 DIFFERENCE
26.18% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Jets to be the 3rd-most run-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 42.3% run rate.. Geno Smith is positioned as one of the leading quarterbacks in football at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a fantastic 2.42 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 90th percentile.

o5.5 -155
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS SEA @ ARI
Michael Wilson logo
Arizona Cardinals image thumbnail
M. Wilson (WR) o38.5 Receiving Yards
51.42 OVER PROJECTION
+12.9 DIFFERENCE
26.15% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Michael Wilson logo
Arizona Cardinals image thumbnail
M. Wilson (WR) o38.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

51.42 OVER PROJECTION
+12.9 DIFFERENCE
26.15% EV

ANALYSIS

A passing game script is indicated by the Cardinals being a -4-point underdog in this week's game.. The predictive model expects the Arizona Cardinals as the 3rd-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The 4th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Arizona Cardinals since the start of last season (a staggering 60.0 per game on average).. The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (36.1 per game) since the start of last season.. Michael Wilson rates as one of the leading pass-catching WRs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 51.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 87th percentile.

o35.5 -125
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RUSHING YARDS CIN @ HOU
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o11.5 Rushing Yards
19.49 OVER PROJECTION
+8.0 DIFFERENCE
26.14% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o11.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

19.49 OVER PROJECTION
+8.0 DIFFERENCE
26.14% EV

ANALYSIS

With regard to a defense's influence on tempo, at 28.05 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-quickest in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time.. C.J. Stroud's running efficiency (7.35 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL since the start of last season (100th percentile among QBs).. The Cincinnati Bengals defense owns the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing ground games since the start of last season, surrendering 5.27 adjusted yards-per-carry.. When it comes to the safeties' role in run defense, Cincinnati's unit has been exceptional last year, grading out as the 7th-best in football.

o10.5 -115
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RUSHING YARDS LV @ LAC
Omarion Hampton logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Hampton (RB) o64.5 Rushing Yards
79.19 OVER PROJECTION
+14.7 DIFFERENCE
26.13% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Omarion Hampton logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Hampton (RB) o64.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

79.19 OVER PROJECTION
+14.7 DIFFERENCE
26.13% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line implies an extreme rushing game script for the Chargers, who are a heavy favorite by 7 points.. The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 5th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 47.5% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The 7th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers since the start of last season (a colossal 59.5 per game on average).

o60.5 -115
bet365 logo
PASSING YARDS MIN @ CHI
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) u215.5 Passing Yards
183.87 UNDER PROJECTION
-31.6 DIFFERENCE
26.1% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) u215.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

183.87 UNDER PROJECTION
-31.6 DIFFERENCE
26.1% EV

ANALYSIS

The Vikings have been the 10th-least pass-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 51.7% pass rate.. The 2nd-fewest plays in football have been run by the Vikings since the start of last season (just 51.7 per game on average).. The Vikings have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game effectiveness when facing windier weather in this week's game.. The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

u216.5 -115
bet365 logo
PASSING YARDS GB @ NYJ
Jordan Love logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
J. Love (QB) u254.5 Passing Yards
224.57 UNDER PROJECTION
-29.9 DIFFERENCE
26.07% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Caesars
Best Odds
Jordan Love logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
J. Love (QB) u254.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

224.57 UNDER PROJECTION
-29.9 DIFFERENCE
26.07% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Packers, who are favored by 3.5 points.. Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Packers are expected by our trusted projection set to run only 59.7 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.. Jordan Love's 50.1% Adjusted Completion% this season indicates a remarkable diminishment in his passing accuracy over last season's 67.1% rate.. The New York Jets defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year: the most in the NFL.. When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, New York's group of CBs has been lousy last year, grading out as the 8th-worst in the league.

u255.5 -114
Caesars logo
RECEIVING YARDS CIN @ HOU
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) o75.5 Receiving Yards
94.94 OVER PROJECTION
+19.4 DIFFERENCE
26.07% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) o75.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

94.94 OVER PROJECTION
+19.4 DIFFERENCE
26.07% EV

ANALYSIS

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Bengals, who are -3-point underdogs.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 68.8% of their plays: the greatest frequency among all teams this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to have 129.8 plays on offense called: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week.. The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.. With an impressive 96.5% Route Participation Rate (99th percentile) last year, Ja'Marr Chase ranks among the WRs with the most usage in football.

o74.5 -125
theScore Bet logo
PASSING YARDS JAC @ DEN
Bo Nix logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
B. Nix (QB) o220.5 Passing Yards
252.42 OVER PROJECTION
+31.9 DIFFERENCE
26.04% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Bo Nix logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
B. Nix (QB) o220.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

252.42 OVER PROJECTION
+31.9 DIFFERENCE
26.04% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Broncos to pass on 60.1% of their plays: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week.. The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.9 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 8th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a staggering 58.7 plays per game.. The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a prominent pass funnel last year, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in the NFL (37.5 per game) last year.. The Denver Broncos O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all air attack metrics across the board.

o220.5 -110
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN MIN @ CHI
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.16 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
26% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.16 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
26% EV

ANALYSIS

The Vikings will be starting backup quarterback Carson Wentz in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.. At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.. Right now, the 4th-most pass-oriented offense in football near the goal line (60.9% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Minnesota Vikings.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to have 130.5 offensive plays run: the 4th-highest number among all games this week.. Carson Wentz has been among the top TD throwers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an exceptional 1.50 per game while ranking in the 88th percentile.

+1000
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN CAR @ ATL
Cooper Rush logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
C. Rush (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.08 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
26% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Cooper Rush logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
C. Rush (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.08 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
26% EV

ANALYSIS

The Atlanta Falcons may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) as a result of being be rolling out backup quarterback Cooper Rush.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see 132.6 plays on offense called: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The leading projections forecast Cooper Rush to attempt 35.4 passes this week, on balance: the 8th-most among all quarterbacks.. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons ranks as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.

+2200
BetMGM logo
RECEIVING YARDS JAC @ DEN
Evan Engram logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
E. Engram (TE) o25.5 Receiving Yards
34.03 OVER PROJECTION
+8.5 DIFFERENCE
25.85% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Evan Engram logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
E. Engram (TE) o25.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

34.03 OVER PROJECTION
+8.5 DIFFERENCE
25.85% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Broncos to pass on 59.5% of their plays: the 9th-highest rate on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect the Broncos to run the 3rd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.8 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 8th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a staggering 58.7 plays per game.. The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in the NFL (36.6 per game) since the start of last season.. The projections expect Evan Engram to accrue 5.4 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 84th percentile among TEs.

o23.5 -114
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN LV @ LAC
Kirk Cousins logo
Las Vegas Raiders image thumbnail
K. Cousins (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.07 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
25.84% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Kirk Cousins logo
Las Vegas Raiders image thumbnail
K. Cousins (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.07 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
25.84% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Raiders being a huge -7-point underdog in this game.. The leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 59.6% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Kirk Cousins has run for 0.00 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the lowest marks in the NFL among quarterbacks (2nd percentile).. The Chargers linebackers project as the 2nd-worst LB corps in football since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

+3000
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS PIT @ NE
DK Metcalf logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
D. Metcalf (WR) o53.5 Receiving Yards
69.89 OVER PROJECTION
+16.4 DIFFERENCE
25.84% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
DK Metcalf logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
D. Metcalf (WR) o53.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

69.89 OVER PROJECTION
+16.4 DIFFERENCE
25.84% EV

ANALYSIS

The Steelers are a 5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. The projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 64.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers offense to be the 2nd-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 25.86 seconds per snap.. DK Metcalf has run a route on 92.5% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to wideouts.. The New England Patriots pass defense has given up the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.4%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (67.4%).

o53.5 -115
BetRivers logo
RUSHING YARDS IND @ KC
Patrick Mahomes logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
P. Mahomes (QB) o17.5 Rushing Yards
25.47 OVER PROJECTION
+8.0 DIFFERENCE
25.83% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Patrick Mahomes logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
P. Mahomes (QB) o17.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

25.47 OVER PROJECTION
+8.0 DIFFERENCE
25.83% EV

ANALYSIS

This week's spread implies a rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 6.5 points.. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to run on 47.3% of their downs: the 7th-highest rate on the slate this week.. In racking up a massive 4.0 rush attempts per game since the start of last season, Patrick Mahomes rates among the top QBs in football (83rd percentile) in regards to rushing utilization.. Patrick Mahomes has grinded out 23.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the NFL among QBs (83rd percentile).. The Indianapolis Colts safeties grade out as the 30th-worst collection of safeties in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

o15.5 -140
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RUSHING YARDS PHI @ TEN
Cam Ward logo
Tennessee Titans image thumbnail
C. Ward (QB) o11.5 Rushing Yards
18.12 OVER PROJECTION
+6.6 DIFFERENCE
25.81% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Cam Ward logo
Tennessee Titans image thumbnail
C. Ward (QB) o11.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

18.12 OVER PROJECTION
+6.6 DIFFERENCE
25.81% EV

ANALYSIS

At the moment, the 3rd-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Tennessee Titans.

o10.5 -125
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS WAS @ DAL
Jacory Croskey-Merritt logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
J. Croskey-Merritt (RB) o2.5 Receiving Yards
8.42 OVER PROJECTION
+5.9 DIFFERENCE
25.79% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jacory Croskey-Merritt logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
J. Croskey-Merritt (RB) o2.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

8.42 OVER PROJECTION
+5.9 DIFFERENCE
25.79% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's spread suggests a passing game script for the Commanders, who are -4-point underdogs.. In terms of a defense's influence on tempo, at 28.44 seconds per play, the predictive model expects the Commanders to be the 10th-slowest in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment.. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.. Opposing offenses have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game versus the Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been torched for the most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (42.0) to RBs since the start of last season.

o2.5 -120
bet365 logo
TOTAL MIN @ CHI
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail Chicago Bears image thumbnail
Under 48.5 Total
39.84 UNDER PROJECTION
-8.7 DIFFERENCE
25.41% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail Chicago Bears image thumbnail
Under 48.5 Total

PROJECTION

39.84 UNDER PROJECTION
-8.7 DIFFERENCE
25.41% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

u48.5 -110
DraftKings logo
RUSHING YARDS MIA @ SF
De'Von Achane logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
D. Achane (RB) o60.5 Rushing Yards
70.44 OVER PROJECTION
+9.9 DIFFERENCE
25.37% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
De'Von Achane logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
D. Achane (RB) o60.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

70.44 OVER PROJECTION
+9.9 DIFFERENCE
25.37% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Dolphins to be the 5th-most run-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 41.9% run rate.. Our trusted projections expect De'Von Achane to accrue 16.0 rush attempts this week, on balance, placing him in the 88th percentile among RBs.. De'Von Achane has received 63.2% of his team's rushing play calls since the start of last season, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.. De'Von Achane has grinded out 67.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the league among running backs (94th percentile).. With an impressive tally of 5.13 adjusted yards per carry (89th percentile), De'Von Achane stands among the best pure rushers in the NFL since the start of last season.

o54.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS PIT @ NE
Romeo Doubs logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
R. Doubs (WR) o40.5 Receiving Yards
49.96 OVER PROJECTION
+9.5 DIFFERENCE
24.76% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Romeo Doubs logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
R. Doubs (WR) o40.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

49.96 OVER PROJECTION
+9.5 DIFFERENCE
24.76% EV

ANALYSIS

The Steelers defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (34.9 per game) since the start of last season.. When talking about air yards, Romeo Doubs ranks in the lofty 80th percentile among wideouts since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 68.0 per game.. Romeo Doubs places in the 75th percentile among WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) with an impressive 46.9 mark since the start of last season.. When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the New England Patriots grades out as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season.. Romeo Doubs ranks as one of the top pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 44.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 80th percentile.

o39.5 -114
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN CIN @ HOU
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.17 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
22.51% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.17 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
22.51% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Texans to be the 7th-most pass-focused team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 61.9% pass rate.. With regard to a defense's influence on tempo, at 28.05 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-quickest in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.. In this week's contest, C.J. Stroud is predicted by the predictive model to have the 9th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 35.4. . C.J. Stroud's 66.9% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a remarkable gain in his passing precision over last year's 62.6% mark.

+1000
DraftKings logo
SPREAD MIA @ SF
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
MIA +13.5 spread
8.08 PROJECTION
-5.4 DIFFERENCE
21.7% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Hard Rock Bet
Best Odds
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
MIA +13.5 spread

PROJECTION

8.08 PROJECTION
-5.4 DIFFERENCE
21.7% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

+13.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet logo
SPREAD SEA @ ARI
Arizona Cardinals image thumbnail
ARI +3.5 spread
0.37 PROJECTION
-3.1 DIFFERENCE
19.53% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Arizona Cardinals image thumbnail
ARI +3.5 spread

PROJECTION

0.37 PROJECTION
-3.1 DIFFERENCE
19.53% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

+3.5 +100
bet365 logo
TOTAL CLE @ TB
Cleveland Browns image thumbnail Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
Under 41.5 Total
38.23 UNDER PROJECTION
-3.3 DIFFERENCE
19.37% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Cleveland Browns image thumbnail Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
Under 41.5 Total

PROJECTION

38.23 UNDER PROJECTION
-3.3 DIFFERENCE
19.37% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

u41.5 -110
bet365 logo
TOTAL CIN @ HOU
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail Houston Texans image thumbnail
Over 45.5 Total
49.54 OVER PROJECTION
+4.0 DIFFERENCE
19.16% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail Houston Texans image thumbnail
Over 45.5 Total

PROJECTION

49.54 OVER PROJECTION
+4.0 DIFFERENCE
19.16% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

o45.5 -110
BetMGM logo
SPREAD CAR @ ATL
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
ATL +2.5 spread
-0.54 PROJECTION
-3.0 DIFFERENCE
19.12% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
ATL +2.5 spread

PROJECTION

-0.54 PROJECTION
-3.0 DIFFERENCE
19.12% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

+2.5 +100
bet365 logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN NYG @ LA
Matthew Stafford logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
M. Stafford (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.09 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
27.2% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Matthew Stafford logo
Los Angeles Rams image thumbnail
M. Stafford (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.09 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
27.2% EV

ANALYSIS

Matthew Stafford has been one of the best touchdown passers in the league since the start of last season, averaging an exceptional 2.19 per game while grading out in the 100th percentile.. Matthew Stafford has rushed for 0.00 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the lowest figures in the NFL when it comes to quarterbacks (2nd percentile).. The New York Giants cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-worst group of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

+2500
BetRivers logo
RUSHING YARDS CAR @ ATL
Cooper Rush logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
C. Rush (QB) o0.5 Rushing Yards
5.11 OVER PROJECTION
+4.6 DIFFERENCE
27.2% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Cooper Rush logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
C. Rush (QB) o0.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

5.11 OVER PROJECTION
+4.6 DIFFERENCE
27.2% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Falcons to be the most run-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 44.2% run rate.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see 132.6 plays on offense called: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.. While Cooper Rush has garnered 0.9% of his offense's carries in games he has played since the start of last season, the projections expect him to be a more integral piece of Atlanta's run game in this game at 6.9%.. Opposing offenses have run for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in the league (141 per game) versus the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season.. When it comes to the safeties' role in run defense, Carolina's unit has been exceptional last year, profiling as the 5th-best in the NFL.

o0.5 +136
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RUSHING YARDS IND @ KC
Daniel Jones logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
D. Jones (QB) o10.5 Rushing Yards
20.63 OVER PROJECTION
+10.1 DIFFERENCE
27.2% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Daniel Jones logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
D. Jones (QB) o10.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

20.63 OVER PROJECTION
+10.1 DIFFERENCE
27.2% EV

ANALYSIS

The Colts have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions this week.. With a terrific tally of 6.3 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (83rd percentile), Daniel Jones has been as one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season.

o8.5 -108
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RUSHING YARDS PHI @ TEN
Tony Pollard logo
Tennessee Titans image thumbnail
T. Pollard (RB) o44.5 Rushing Yards
59.94 OVER PROJECTION
+15.4 DIFFERENCE
27.2% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Tony Pollard logo
Tennessee Titans image thumbnail
T. Pollard (RB) o44.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

59.94 OVER PROJECTION
+15.4 DIFFERENCE
27.2% EV

ANALYSIS

At the moment, the 3rd-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Tennessee Titans.. In this week's contest, Tony Pollard is expected by the model to secure a spot in the 84th percentile among running backs with 15.5 rush attempts.. Tony Pollard has been given 64.9% of his team's run game usage since the start of last season, putting him in the 96th percentile among RBs.. Tony Pollard has grinded out 49.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in football when it comes to RBs (83rd percentile).. Tony Pollard ranks as one of the leading running backs in the league at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging an excellent 3.21 yards-after-contact last year while checking in at the 75th percentile.

o40.5 -135
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RUSHING YARDS WAS @ DAL
Dak Prescott logo
Dallas Cowboys image thumbnail
D. Prescott (QB) o10.5 Rushing Yards
15.65 OVER PROJECTION
+5.1 DIFFERENCE
26.88% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Dak Prescott logo
Dallas Cowboys image thumbnail
D. Prescott (QB) o10.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

15.65 OVER PROJECTION
+5.1 DIFFERENCE
26.88% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 4-point advantage, the Cowboys are favored in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal game plan.. The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 27.12 seconds per snap.. The opposing side have run for the 6th-most adjusted yards in the league (138 per game) vs. the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season.. The Washington Commanders linebackers rank as the 2nd-worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

o7.5 -111
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RUSHING YARDS PIT @ NE
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o0.5 Rushing Yards
10.31 OVER PROJECTION
+9.8 DIFFERENCE
26.85% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o0.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

10.31 OVER PROJECTION
+9.8 DIFFERENCE
26.85% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers offense to be the 2nd-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 25.86 seconds per snap.. Our trusted projections expect Aaron Rodgers to be a more important option in his team's ground game this week (10.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (3.7% in games he has played).. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, New England's collection of DTs has been terrible since the start of last season, grading out as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

o0.5 -104
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ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN LV @ LAC
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.3 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
26.83% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.3 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
26.83% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to be the 8th-most pass-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.2% red zone pass rate.. The 7th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers since the start of last season (a colossal 59.5 per game on average).. With a terrific ratio of 1.50 per game (78th percentile), Justin Herbert rates among the top touchdown passers in the NFL since the start of last season.

+500
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RECEIVING YARDS WAS @ DAL
Stefon Diggs logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
S. Diggs (WR) o47.5 Receiving Yards
67.01 OVER PROJECTION
+19.5 DIFFERENCE
26.67% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Stefon Diggs logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
S. Diggs (WR) o47.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

67.01 OVER PROJECTION
+19.5 DIFFERENCE
26.67% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's spread suggests a passing game script for the Commanders, who are -4-point underdogs.. In terms of a defense's influence on tempo, at 28.44 seconds per play, the predictive model expects the Commanders to be the 10th-slowest in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment.. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.. Opposing offenses have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game versus the Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.. Stefon Diggs comes in as one of the top WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 53.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.

o45.5 -135
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RUSHING YARDS SEA @ ARI
Jacoby Brissett logo
Arizona Cardinals image thumbnail
J. Brissett (QB) o10.5 Rushing Yards
17.19 OVER PROJECTION
+6.7 DIFFERENCE
26.55% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jacoby Brissett logo
Arizona Cardinals image thumbnail
J. Brissett (QB) o10.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

17.19 OVER PROJECTION
+6.7 DIFFERENCE
26.55% EV

ANALYSIS

The 4th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Arizona Cardinals since the start of last season (a staggering 60.0 per game on average).

o9.5 -110
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RECEIVING YARDS WAS @ DAL
Jake Ferguson logo
Dallas Cowboys image thumbnail
J. Ferguson (TE) o27.5 Receiving Yards
38.44 OVER PROJECTION
+10.9 DIFFERENCE
26.52% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Jake Ferguson logo
Dallas Cowboys image thumbnail
J. Ferguson (TE) o27.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

38.44 OVER PROJECTION
+10.9 DIFFERENCE
26.52% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Cowboys to be the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 61.5% pass rate.. The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 27.12 seconds per snap.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.. Jake Ferguson has run a route on 73.6% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 84th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. Since the start of last season, the deficient Commanders defense has surrendered a massive 67.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing TEs: the 2nd-most in the league.

o25.5 -140
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PASSING YARDS CIN @ HOU
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o249.5 Passing Yards
294.12 OVER PROJECTION
+44.6 DIFFERENCE
26.49% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o249.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

294.12 OVER PROJECTION
+44.6 DIFFERENCE
26.49% EV

ANALYSIS

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 68.4% of their plays: the greatest frequency among all teams this week.. The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.. This week, Joe Burrow is projected by the projections to wind up with the most pass attempts among all QBs with 40.0. . With a fantastic rate of 202.0 adjusted passing yards per game (75th percentile), Joe Burrow rates among the best QBs in the league since the start of last season.. The Houston cornerbacks grade out as the worst unit in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

o242.5 -115
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PASSING YARDS WAS @ DAL
Jayden Daniels logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
J. Daniels (QB) o220.5 Passing Yards
259.07 OVER PROJECTION
+38.6 DIFFERENCE
26.44% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Jayden Daniels logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
J. Daniels (QB) o220.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

259.07 OVER PROJECTION
+38.6 DIFFERENCE
26.44% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's spread suggests a passing game script for the Commanders, who are -4-point underdogs.. In terms of a defense's influence on tempo, at 28.44 seconds per play, the predictive model expects the Commanders to be the 10th-slowest in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment.. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.. Opposing offenses have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game versus the Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.. Since the start of last season, the poor Cowboys defense has yielded a massive 249.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing QBs: the 2nd-most in the league.

o220.5 -110
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RECEIVING YARDS CAR @ ATL
Kyle Pitts Sr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
K. Pitts Sr. (TE) o31.5 Receiving Yards
47.14 OVER PROJECTION
+15.6 DIFFERENCE
26.43% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Kyle Pitts Sr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
K. Pitts Sr. (TE) o31.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

47.14 OVER PROJECTION
+15.6 DIFFERENCE
26.43% EV

ANALYSIS

The Atlanta Falcons may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) as a result of being be rolling out backup quarterback Cooper Rush.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see 132.6 plays on offense called: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. Kyle Pitts has run a route on 90.8% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 99th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. Our trusted projections expect Kyle Pitts to accrue 6.3 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to tight ends.

o29.5 -115
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RUSHING YARDS MIN @ CHI
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) o10.5 Rushing Yards
16.04 OVER PROJECTION
+5.5 DIFFERENCE
26.43% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) o10.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

16.04 OVER PROJECTION
+5.5 DIFFERENCE
26.43% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 48.3% rate of rushing the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 10th-most run-centric offense in football has been the Vikings.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to have 132.7 offensive plays run: the highest number among all games this week.. The Vikings have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game effectiveness when facing windier weather in this week's game.. The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.. The Chicago Bears defense has had the 8th-worst efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, giving up 5.04 adjusted yards-per-carry.

o7.5 -123
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RECEIVING YARDS CIN @ HOU
Kayshon Boutte logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
K. Boutte (WR) o35.5 Receiving Yards
53.21 OVER PROJECTION
+17.7 DIFFERENCE
26.37% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Kayshon Boutte logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
K. Boutte (WR) o35.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

53.21 OVER PROJECTION
+17.7 DIFFERENCE
26.37% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Texans to be the 7th-most pass-focused team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 61.9% pass rate.. With regard to a defense's influence on tempo, at 28.05 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-quickest in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.. With an exceptional 11.8 adjusted yards per target (91st percentile) since the start of last season, Kayshon Boutte has been as one of the top pass-catching WRs in football.. The Bengals pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (67.3%) versus wide receivers since the start of last season (67.3%).

o33.5 -118
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RUSHING YARDS CLE @ TB
Quinshon Judkins logo
Cleveland Browns image thumbnail
Q. Judkins (RB) o47.5 Rushing Yards
66.31 OVER PROJECTION
+18.8 DIFFERENCE
26.37% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Quinshon Judkins logo
Cleveland Browns image thumbnail
Q. Judkins (RB) o47.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

66.31 OVER PROJECTION
+18.8 DIFFERENCE
26.37% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Browns as the 10th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 44.9% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

o45.5 -140
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PASSING YARDS CIN @ HOU
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o218.5 Passing Yards
253.09 OVER PROJECTION
+34.6 DIFFERENCE
26.35% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o218.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

253.09 OVER PROJECTION
+34.6 DIFFERENCE
26.35% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Texans to be the 7th-most pass-focused team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 61.9% pass rate.. With regard to a defense's influence on tempo, at 28.05 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-quickest in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.. In this week's contest, C.J. Stroud is predicted by the predictive model to have the 9th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 35.4. . Opposing QBs have passed for the 5th-most adjusted yards in football (243.0 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season.

o215.5 -115
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RECEIVING YARDS CAR @ ATL
Drake London logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
D. London (WR) o57.5 Receiving Yards
74.72 OVER PROJECTION
+17.2 DIFFERENCE
26.35% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Drake London logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
D. London (WR) o57.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

74.72 OVER PROJECTION
+17.2 DIFFERENCE
26.35% EV

ANALYSIS

The Atlanta Falcons may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) as a result of being be rolling out backup quarterback Cooper Rush.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see 132.6 plays on offense called: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The predictive model expects Drake London to garner 9.6 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.. With an outstanding 63.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (95th percentile) since the start of last season, Drake London rates among the top pass-catching WRs in the league.

o54.5 -114
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ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN PIT @ NE
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.08 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
26.32% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.08 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
26.32% EV

ANALYSIS

The Steelers are a 5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. The projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 64.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the most pass-centric team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.1% red zone pass rate.. The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers offense to be the 2nd-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 25.86 seconds per snap.. In this contest, Aaron Rodgers is forecasted by the projections to wind up with the 2nd-most pass attempts among all QBs with 38.3.

+2500
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PASSING YARDS PIT @ NE
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o204.5 Passing Yards
242.07 OVER PROJECTION
+37.6 DIFFERENCE
26.26% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o204.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

242.07 OVER PROJECTION
+37.6 DIFFERENCE
26.26% EV

ANALYSIS

The Steelers are a 5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. The projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 64.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers offense to be the 2nd-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 25.86 seconds per snap.. In this contest, Aaron Rodgers is forecasted by the projections to wind up with the 2nd-most pass attempts among all QBs with 38.5. . Since the start of last season, the weak Patriots defense has conceded a monstrous 73.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 6th-highest rate in the NFL.

o203.5 -114
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RUSHING YARDS MIA @ SF
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) o12.5 Rushing Yards
21.47 OVER PROJECTION
+9.0 DIFFERENCE
26.26% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) o12.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

21.47 OVER PROJECTION
+9.0 DIFFERENCE
26.26% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 13-point advantage, the 49ers are a heavy favorite this week, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the 49ers to run on 48.2% of their chances: the 5th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Brock Purdy's rushing efficiency (6.20 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league since the start of last season (76th percentile among quarterbacks).. Since the start of last season, the anemic Dolphins run defense has surrendered a monstrous 141.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing squads: the 2nd-worst in the NFL.

o12.5 -115
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RECEIVING YARDS CIN @ HOU
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) o41.5 Receiving Yards
54.81 OVER PROJECTION
+13.3 DIFFERENCE
26.2% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) o41.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

54.81 OVER PROJECTION
+13.3 DIFFERENCE
26.2% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Texans to be the 7th-most pass-focused team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 61.9% pass rate.. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Houston Texans are predicted by our trusted projection set to run 64.6 offensive plays in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.. The most plays in the NFL have been run by the Texans since the start of last season (a monstrous 60.8 per game on average).. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.. The Cincinnati Bengals defense has surrendered the most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (81.0) to tight ends since the start of last season.

o41.5 -114
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RECEIVING YARDS IND @ KC
Josh Downs logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
J. Downs (WR) o36.5 Receiving Yards
51.75 OVER PROJECTION
+15.3 DIFFERENCE
26.19% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Josh Downs logo
Indianapolis Colts image thumbnail
J. Downs (WR) o36.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

51.75 OVER PROJECTION
+15.3 DIFFERENCE
26.19% EV

ANALYSIS

The Colts are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts to pass on 0.0% of their opportunities: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.. In this week's contest, Josh Downs is anticipated by the projection model to position himself in the 88th percentile among wideouts with 7.3 targets.. The Colts offensive line grades out as the best in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.. Josh Downs ranks as one of the worst wide receivers in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year while grading out in the 1st percentile.

o36.5 -115
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RECEIVING YARDS MIA @ SF
Greg Dulcich logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
G. Dulcich (TE) o23.5 Receiving Yards
36.07 OVER PROJECTION
+12.6 DIFFERENCE
26.18% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Greg Dulcich logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
G. Dulcich (TE) o23.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

36.07 OVER PROJECTION
+12.6 DIFFERENCE
26.18% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a giant -13.5-point underdog in this game.. The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.. With a remarkable 52.4% Route Participation% (79th percentile) since the start of last season, Greg Dulcich stands among the TEs with the most usage in football.. In this contest, Greg Dulcich is expected by the predictive model to finish in the 76th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.6 targets.. Greg Dulcich ranks as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL among tight ends, catching a fantastic 83.5% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 91st percentile.

o20.5 -150
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RECEIVING YARDS PHI @ TEN
Carnell Tate logo
Tennessee Titans image thumbnail
C. Tate (WR) o42.5 Receiving Yards
52.43 OVER PROJECTION
+9.9 DIFFERENCE
26.18% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Carnell Tate logo
Tennessee Titans image thumbnail
C. Tate (WR) o42.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

52.43 OVER PROJECTION
+9.9 DIFFERENCE
26.18% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Titans being a giant -7-point underdog in this game.. The predictive model expects the Tennessee Titans as the 6th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 59.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is expected by the projections to see 130.1 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.. Last year, the feeble Philadelphia Eagles defense has surrendered the most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing wide receivers: a colossal 0.00 YAC.. When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Philadelphia's CB corps has been easily exploitable last year, profiling as the 7th-worst in the NFL.

o39.5 -120
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RUSHING YARDS GB @ NYJ
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) o7.5 Rushing Yards
17.53 OVER PROJECTION
+10.0 DIFFERENCE
26.18% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) o7.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

17.53 OVER PROJECTION
+10.0 DIFFERENCE
26.18% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Jets to be the 3rd-most run-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 42.3% run rate.. Geno Smith is positioned as one of the leading quarterbacks in football at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a fantastic 2.42 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 90th percentile.

o5.5 -155
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS SEA @ ARI
Michael Wilson logo
Arizona Cardinals image thumbnail
M. Wilson (WR) o38.5 Receiving Yards
51.42 OVER PROJECTION
+12.9 DIFFERENCE
26.15% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Michael Wilson logo
Arizona Cardinals image thumbnail
M. Wilson (WR) o38.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

51.42 OVER PROJECTION
+12.9 DIFFERENCE
26.15% EV

ANALYSIS

A passing game script is indicated by the Cardinals being a -4-point underdog in this week's game.. The predictive model expects the Arizona Cardinals as the 3rd-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The 4th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Arizona Cardinals since the start of last season (a staggering 60.0 per game on average).. The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (36.1 per game) since the start of last season.. Michael Wilson rates as one of the leading pass-catching WRs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 51.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 87th percentile.

o35.5 -125
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RUSHING YARDS CIN @ HOU
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o11.5 Rushing Yards
19.49 OVER PROJECTION
+8.0 DIFFERENCE
26.14% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o11.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

19.49 OVER PROJECTION
+8.0 DIFFERENCE
26.14% EV

ANALYSIS

With regard to a defense's influence on tempo, at 28.05 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-quickest in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time.. C.J. Stroud's running efficiency (7.35 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL since the start of last season (100th percentile among QBs).. The Cincinnati Bengals defense owns the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing ground games since the start of last season, surrendering 5.27 adjusted yards-per-carry.. When it comes to the safeties' role in run defense, Cincinnati's unit has been exceptional last year, grading out as the 7th-best in football.

o10.5 -115
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RUSHING YARDS LV @ LAC
Omarion Hampton logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Hampton (RB) o64.5 Rushing Yards
79.19 OVER PROJECTION
+14.7 DIFFERENCE
26.13% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Omarion Hampton logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Hampton (RB) o64.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

79.19 OVER PROJECTION
+14.7 DIFFERENCE
26.13% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line implies an extreme rushing game script for the Chargers, who are a heavy favorite by 7 points.. The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 5th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 47.5% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The 7th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers since the start of last season (a colossal 59.5 per game on average).

o60.5 -115
bet365 logo
PASSING YARDS MIN @ CHI
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) u215.5 Passing Yards
183.87 UNDER PROJECTION
-31.6 DIFFERENCE
26.1% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) u215.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

183.87 UNDER PROJECTION
-31.6 DIFFERENCE
26.1% EV

ANALYSIS

The Vikings have been the 10th-least pass-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 51.7% pass rate.. The 2nd-fewest plays in football have been run by the Vikings since the start of last season (just 51.7 per game on average).. The Vikings have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game effectiveness when facing windier weather in this week's game.. The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

u216.5 -115
bet365 logo
PASSING YARDS GB @ NYJ
Jordan Love logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
J. Love (QB) u254.5 Passing Yards
224.57 UNDER PROJECTION
-29.9 DIFFERENCE
26.07% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Caesars
Best Odds
Jordan Love logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
J. Love (QB) u254.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

224.57 UNDER PROJECTION
-29.9 DIFFERENCE
26.07% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Packers, who are favored by 3.5 points.. Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Packers are expected by our trusted projection set to run only 59.7 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.. Jordan Love's 50.1% Adjusted Completion% this season indicates a remarkable diminishment in his passing accuracy over last season's 67.1% rate.. The New York Jets defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year: the most in the NFL.. When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, New York's group of CBs has been lousy last year, grading out as the 8th-worst in the league.

u255.5 -114
Caesars logo
RECEIVING YARDS CIN @ HOU
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) o75.5 Receiving Yards
94.94 OVER PROJECTION
+19.4 DIFFERENCE
26.07% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) o75.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

94.94 OVER PROJECTION
+19.4 DIFFERENCE
26.07% EV

ANALYSIS

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Bengals, who are -3-point underdogs.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 68.8% of their plays: the greatest frequency among all teams this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to have 129.8 plays on offense called: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week.. The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.. With an impressive 96.5% Route Participation Rate (99th percentile) last year, Ja'Marr Chase ranks among the WRs with the most usage in football.

o74.5 -125
theScore Bet logo
PASSING YARDS JAC @ DEN
Bo Nix logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
B. Nix (QB) o220.5 Passing Yards
252.42 OVER PROJECTION
+31.9 DIFFERENCE
26.04% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Bo Nix logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
B. Nix (QB) o220.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

252.42 OVER PROJECTION
+31.9 DIFFERENCE
26.04% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Broncos to pass on 60.1% of their plays: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week.. The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.9 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 8th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a staggering 58.7 plays per game.. The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a prominent pass funnel last year, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in the NFL (37.5 per game) last year.. The Denver Broncos O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all air attack metrics across the board.

o220.5 -110
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN MIN @ CHI
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.16 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
26% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.16 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
26% EV

ANALYSIS

The Vikings will be starting backup quarterback Carson Wentz in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.. At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.. Right now, the 4th-most pass-oriented offense in football near the goal line (60.9% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Minnesota Vikings.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to have 130.5 offensive plays run: the 4th-highest number among all games this week.. Carson Wentz has been among the top TD throwers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an exceptional 1.50 per game while ranking in the 88th percentile.

+1000
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN CAR @ ATL
Cooper Rush logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
C. Rush (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.08 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
26% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Cooper Rush logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
C. Rush (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.08 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
26% EV

ANALYSIS

The Atlanta Falcons may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) as a result of being be rolling out backup quarterback Cooper Rush.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see 132.6 plays on offense called: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The leading projections forecast Cooper Rush to attempt 35.4 passes this week, on balance: the 8th-most among all quarterbacks.. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons ranks as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.

+2200
BetMGM logo
RECEIVING YARDS JAC @ DEN
Evan Engram logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
E. Engram (TE) o25.5 Receiving Yards
34.03 OVER PROJECTION
+8.5 DIFFERENCE
25.85% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Evan Engram logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
E. Engram (TE) o25.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

34.03 OVER PROJECTION
+8.5 DIFFERENCE
25.85% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Broncos to pass on 59.5% of their plays: the 9th-highest rate on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect the Broncos to run the 3rd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.8 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 8th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a staggering 58.7 plays per game.. The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in the NFL (36.6 per game) since the start of last season.. The projections expect Evan Engram to accrue 5.4 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 84th percentile among TEs.

o23.5 -114
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN LV @ LAC
Kirk Cousins logo
Las Vegas Raiders image thumbnail
K. Cousins (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.07 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
25.84% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Kirk Cousins logo
Las Vegas Raiders image thumbnail
K. Cousins (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.07 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
25.84% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Raiders being a huge -7-point underdog in this game.. The leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 59.6% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Kirk Cousins has run for 0.00 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the lowest marks in the NFL among quarterbacks (2nd percentile).. The Chargers linebackers project as the 2nd-worst LB corps in football since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

+3000
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS PIT @ NE
DK Metcalf logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
D. Metcalf (WR) o53.5 Receiving Yards
69.89 OVER PROJECTION
+16.4 DIFFERENCE
25.84% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
DK Metcalf logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
D. Metcalf (WR) o53.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

69.89 OVER PROJECTION
+16.4 DIFFERENCE
25.84% EV

ANALYSIS

The Steelers are a 5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. The projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 64.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers offense to be the 2nd-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 25.86 seconds per snap.. DK Metcalf has run a route on 92.5% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to wideouts.. The New England Patriots pass defense has given up the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.4%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (67.4%).

o53.5 -115
BetRivers logo
RUSHING YARDS IND @ KC
Patrick Mahomes logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
P. Mahomes (QB) o17.5 Rushing Yards
25.47 OVER PROJECTION
+8.0 DIFFERENCE
25.83% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Patrick Mahomes logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
P. Mahomes (QB) o17.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

25.47 OVER PROJECTION
+8.0 DIFFERENCE
25.83% EV

ANALYSIS

This week's spread implies a rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 6.5 points.. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to run on 47.3% of their downs: the 7th-highest rate on the slate this week.. In racking up a massive 4.0 rush attempts per game since the start of last season, Patrick Mahomes rates among the top QBs in football (83rd percentile) in regards to rushing utilization.. Patrick Mahomes has grinded out 23.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the NFL among QBs (83rd percentile).. The Indianapolis Colts safeties grade out as the 30th-worst collection of safeties in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

o15.5 -140
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RUSHING YARDS PHI @ TEN
Cam Ward logo
Tennessee Titans image thumbnail
C. Ward (QB) o11.5 Rushing Yards
18.12 OVER PROJECTION
+6.6 DIFFERENCE
25.81% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Cam Ward logo
Tennessee Titans image thumbnail
C. Ward (QB) o11.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

18.12 OVER PROJECTION
+6.6 DIFFERENCE
25.81% EV

ANALYSIS

At the moment, the 3rd-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Tennessee Titans.

o10.5 -125
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS WAS @ DAL
Jacory Croskey-Merritt logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
J. Croskey-Merritt (RB) o2.5 Receiving Yards
8.42 OVER PROJECTION
+5.9 DIFFERENCE
25.79% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jacory Croskey-Merritt logo
Washington Commanders image thumbnail
J. Croskey-Merritt (RB) o2.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

8.42 OVER PROJECTION
+5.9 DIFFERENCE
25.79% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's spread suggests a passing game script for the Commanders, who are -4-point underdogs.. In terms of a defense's influence on tempo, at 28.44 seconds per play, the predictive model expects the Commanders to be the 10th-slowest in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment.. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.. Opposing offenses have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game versus the Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been torched for the most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (42.0) to RBs since the start of last season.

o2.5 -120
bet365 logo
TOTAL MIN @ CHI
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail Chicago Bears image thumbnail
Under 48.5 Total
39.84 UNDER PROJECTION
-8.7 DIFFERENCE
25.41% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail Chicago Bears image thumbnail
Under 48.5 Total

PROJECTION

39.84 UNDER PROJECTION
-8.7 DIFFERENCE
25.41% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

u48.5 -110
DraftKings logo
RUSHING YARDS MIA @ SF
De'Von Achane logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
D. Achane (RB) o60.5 Rushing Yards
70.44 OVER PROJECTION
+9.9 DIFFERENCE
25.37% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
De'Von Achane logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
D. Achane (RB) o60.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

70.44 OVER PROJECTION
+9.9 DIFFERENCE
25.37% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Dolphins to be the 5th-most run-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 41.9% run rate.. Our trusted projections expect De'Von Achane to accrue 16.0 rush attempts this week, on balance, placing him in the 88th percentile among RBs.. De'Von Achane has received 63.2% of his team's rushing play calls since the start of last season, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.. De'Von Achane has grinded out 67.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the league among running backs (94th percentile).. With an impressive tally of 5.13 adjusted yards per carry (89th percentile), De'Von Achane stands among the best pure rushers in the NFL since the start of last season.

o54.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS PIT @ NE
Romeo Doubs logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
R. Doubs (WR) o40.5 Receiving Yards
49.96 OVER PROJECTION
+9.5 DIFFERENCE
24.76% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Romeo Doubs logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
R. Doubs (WR) o40.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

49.96 OVER PROJECTION
+9.5 DIFFERENCE
24.76% EV

ANALYSIS

The Steelers defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (34.9 per game) since the start of last season.. When talking about air yards, Romeo Doubs ranks in the lofty 80th percentile among wideouts since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 68.0 per game.. Romeo Doubs places in the 75th percentile among WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) with an impressive 46.9 mark since the start of last season.. When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the New England Patriots grades out as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season.. Romeo Doubs ranks as one of the top pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 44.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 80th percentile.

o39.5 -114
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN CIN @ HOU
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.17 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
22.51% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.17 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
22.51% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Texans to be the 7th-most pass-focused team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 61.9% pass rate.. With regard to a defense's influence on tempo, at 28.05 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-quickest in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.. In this week's contest, C.J. Stroud is predicted by the predictive model to have the 9th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 35.4. . C.J. Stroud's 66.9% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a remarkable gain in his passing precision over last year's 62.6% mark.

+1000
DraftKings logo
SPREAD MIA @ SF
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
MIA +13.5 spread
8.08 PROJECTION
-5.4 DIFFERENCE
21.7% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Hard Rock Bet
Best Odds
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
MIA +13.5 spread

PROJECTION

8.08 PROJECTION
-5.4 DIFFERENCE
21.7% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

+13.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet logo
SPREAD SEA @ ARI
Arizona Cardinals image thumbnail
ARI +3.5 spread
0.37 PROJECTION
-3.1 DIFFERENCE
19.53% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Arizona Cardinals image thumbnail
ARI +3.5 spread

PROJECTION

0.37 PROJECTION
-3.1 DIFFERENCE
19.53% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

+3.5 +100
bet365 logo
TOTAL CLE @ TB
Cleveland Browns image thumbnail Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
Under 41.5 Total
38.23 UNDER PROJECTION
-3.3 DIFFERENCE
19.37% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Cleveland Browns image thumbnail Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
Under 41.5 Total

PROJECTION

38.23 UNDER PROJECTION
-3.3 DIFFERENCE
19.37% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

u41.5 -110
bet365 logo
TOTAL CIN @ HOU
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail Houston Texans image thumbnail
Over 45.5 Total
49.54 OVER PROJECTION
+4.0 DIFFERENCE
19.16% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail Houston Texans image thumbnail
Over 45.5 Total

PROJECTION

49.54 OVER PROJECTION
+4.0 DIFFERENCE
19.16% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

o45.5 -110
BetMGM logo
SPREAD CAR @ ATL
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
ATL +2.5 spread
-0.54 PROJECTION
-3.0 DIFFERENCE
19.12% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
ATL +2.5 spread

PROJECTION

-0.54 PROJECTION
-3.0 DIFFERENCE
19.12% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

+2.5 +100
bet365 logo

All NFL Player Props

Click the game below to see that game's props.

September 20

Philadelphia PHIat Tennessee TEN 13:00 ET Pittsburgh PITat New England NE 13:00 ET Minnesota MINat Chicago CHI 13:00 ET Carolina CARat Atlanta ATL 13:00 ET Green Bay GBat N.Y. Jets NYJ 13:00 ET New Orleans NOat Baltimore BAL 13:00 ET Cincinnati CINat Houston HOU 13:00 ET Cleveland CLEat Tampa Bay TB 13:00 ET Jacksonville JACat Denver DEN 16:05 ET Las Vegas LVat L.A. Chargers LAC 16:05 ET Seattle SEAat Arizona ARI 16:25 ET Miami MIAat San Francisco SF 16:25 ET Washington WASat Dallas DAL 16:25 ET Indianapolis INDat Kansas City KC 20:20 ET

September 21

N.Y. Giants NYGat L.A. Rams LA 20:15 ET

September 24

Atlanta ATLat Green Bay GB 20:15 ET

September 27

Kansas City KCat Miami MIA 13:00 ET Carolina CARat Cleveland CLE 13:00 ET Tennessee TENat N.Y. Giants NYG 13:00 ET New England NEat Jacksonville JAC 13:00 ET L.A. Chargers LACat Buffalo BUF 13:00 ET N.Y. Jets NYJat Detroit DET 13:00 ET Houston HOUat Indianapolis IND 13:00 ET Seattle SEAat Washington WAS 13:00 ET Cincinnati CINat Pittsburgh PIT 13:00 ET Arizona ARIat San Francisco SF 16:05 ET Minnesota MINat Tampa Bay TB 16:05 ET Baltimore BALat Dallas DAL 16:25 ET Las Vegas LVat New Orleans NO 16:25 ET L.A. Rams LAat Denver DEN 20:20 ET

September 28

Philadelphia PHIat Chicago CHI 20:15 ET

October 1

Pittsburgh PITat Cleveland CLE 20:15 ET
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