Texans vs Titans Week 16 Picks and Predictions: Henry Continues Dominance Against Houston

Houston has never had an answer when facing All-Pro Derrick Henry, and look for the bruising running back to deliver once more on Christmas Eve when these two divisional rivals meet. Read more in our Texans vs. Titans betting picks.

Last Updated: Dec 24, 2022 8:22 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
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Christmas arrives a day early for football fans, with a massive slate of games on Saturday. Houston vs. Tennessee may not sound thrilling on paper, but with Ryan Tannehill out and a Texans team who have been feisty lately, this could be a lot more entertaining than expected.

Who will win this festive matchup? Find out in our free NFL picks and predictions for Texans vs. Titans on December 24.

Texans vs Titans best odds

Texans vs Titans picks and predictions

Don’t get me wrong, we absolutely love watching NFL on a Sunday, but there’s nothing better than getting an exciting slate of games a day early. On Saturday, we see an AFC South clash as the Texans travel to Nashville to face the Titans in a game that could have big playoff implications for the home team.

Believe it or not, the Jacksonville Jaguars are still competing for first place in the AFC South at 5-8. With the Titans on a run of four defeats in a row, they cannot lose another and give the Jaguars a way in. Meanwhile, the Texans have lost nine in a row and are desperate to grab another victory.

It’s going to be very hard for the Texans to win (at least on the moneyline) when their defense is so poor against the run. They’ve allowed a league-high average of 167.5 per game, which is over double that of the Titans.

Not only have the Texans allowed more yardage on the ground than anybody else, but they’ve also allowed the most touchdowns to running backs, with 17 on the ground and another three in the air. That doesn’t bode well for the trip that tasks shutting down Derrick Henry.

This feels like a quiet year for Derrick Henry, but he’s still second in the entire NFL for rushing yards. The Texans can’t stop the ground game and will now face the NFL’s most fearsome back, who is coming off the back of two weeks of 100+ yards rushing. 

The arrival of the Texans gives us a great chance to haul in a tasty bet with Henry to score two touchdowns. He’s had three games this season in which he’s found the end zone twice, one of which came when King Henry rushed for 219 yards and two touchdowns in Houston.

Bet on the bulldozer to give Houston headaches once more. 

My best bet: Derrick Henry to score 2+ touchdowns (+380)

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Texans vs Titans spread analysis

The Titans opened the week as 7.5-point favorites, but with confirmation that Malik Willis will start, that line has moved down to 3.5. Given the Texans' record of 1-12-1, it’s no surprise that they’re once again the underdogs.

In recent weeks, we’ve seen stretches in which the Texans have looked like they can hang with their opposition before ultimately rearing their ugly head at the end. This feels like one of those games again, in which we could see the Texans in contention for large parts of the game.

Ultimately, however, their rush defense is so bad that it sets them up to fail. This is especially the case when facing a running back like Henry, who has previously excelled against them.

If the line had stayed where it originally opened at Titans -7.5, I’d have taken the Texans and the points. Now I’d lean towards backing the Titans to cover, as I'm confident in their ground game doing enough to get them over the line.

Texans vs Titans Over/Under analysis

I’ve got no strong thoughts on the total points line, but I’d lean toward backing the Under here. The Texans' offense is without their star running back Dameon Pierce, and the Titans have their backup QB starting on Saturday. 

The Under is 6-2 in the Texans' past eight games against divisional opponents. In the Titans' last eight against teams within the AFC, the Under is 7-1.

The Under is also 9-2 in their last 11 games at the Nissan Stadium. We could be in for another low-scoring afternoon here.

Texans vs Titans betting trend to know

The Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Tennessee. Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Titans.

Texans vs Titans game info

Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
Date: Saturday, December 24, 2022
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
Opening odds: Titans -7, 40 O/U

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