With the Chiefs looking healthy at receiver and the books not expecting a multi-catch game from Justin Watson with a 1.5 reception total in his Super Bowl player prop market, I’m high on his Under 17.5 receiving yards.
That is awfully high for a pass-catcher who might be the sixth option in the passing game, and I break it down below in my Super Bowl predictions.
Super Bowl 57 prop odds: Justin Watson receiving yards
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Super Bowl 57 Justin Watson receiving yards pick
- Justin Watson Under 17.5 yards (-120 at SportsInteraction)
Pick made on February 9, 2023.
The health of Kansas City’s receivers is starting to become clearer, as JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney are looking like locks to play with the extended rest. Add in the emergence of Isiah Pacheco’s receiving game, and Watson could be option No. 6 and possibly need three catches to top 17.5 yards.
Watson was inactive vs. the Bengals with an illness and saw just a single target vs. the Jaguars in the Divisional round. He hasn’t had a muti-catch game since Week 12, and has been an afterthought as the Chiefs have been working Toney into their plans more. Since Toney came on board, Watson has just three catches over his last five games.
Watson does run deep routes (19.5 yards average depth of target) but his volume is so low and he hasn’t seen more than 19 snaps on passing downs in three straight games.
His reception total is at 1.5 (+100 for the Over) so the books aren’t expecting a multi-catch performance from a receiver who will likely see just half of the team’s offensive snaps, with half of those coming on running plays.
Some books are as low as 15.5 and I still think there's some value there vs. a Philadelphia pass defense that ranks No.1 in DVOA and allows the lowest yards per reception in football at 8.6 — tied for the lowest mark since 2000.
Being so low on the pecking order, facing a tough defense, and likely needing more than one catch to hit the Over, I’m more than happy to take the Under 17.5 and believe the market is going in the right direction.