The defensive player interception market is a newer Super Bowl player prop that is becoming widely available.
Bettors can find odds as long as +1,200 for a pick and with Patrick Mahomes’ Super Bowl interception tendencies and facing a No. 1 pass defense with an elite pass rush, there might be some meat on the bone for bettors.
I break it all down in my Super Bowl picks below. Check out our Super Bowl odds and Super Bowl predictions for more.
Super Bowl 57 prop odds: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson Interception
The odds below represent the best odds available for this Super Bowl props market from regulated sportsbooks in your region.
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Super Bowl 57 Chauncey Gardner-Johnson Interception pick
- Chauncey Gardner-Johnson to record an interception (+725 at bet365)
- Marcus Epps to record an interception (+925 at bet365)
Picks made on February 7, 2023.
Patrick Mahomes will be playing in his third Super Bowl and the Kansas City Chiefs quarterback has already tossed four interceptions. That's slightly alarming when you consider he’s tossed just seven total interceptions in 13 postseason games.
He’s still dealing with a high-ankle sprain that’s just three weeks old and is a 6-8 week recovery. We saw just three carries from Mahomes vs. the Bengals and the QB’s scrambling ability is still limited ahead of a matchup with the best sack team in football.
With Mahomes possibly passing more (fewer scrambles) and having to stay in the pocket vs. the Eagles’ pass-rush pressure (No. 2 in the league at 25.2%), the probability of an interception increases. Add in the health of the team’s receivers and it gives us a solid chance at one or more INTs from Mahomes.
THE BLITZ is projecting 0.95 and his Over 0.5 interceptions is as short as -135 which is implying 1.23 interceptions at that price.
So where is the value with the Eagles’ defenders?
Darius Slay is the shortest at +500 but I’m more interested in Chauncey Gardner-Johnson who leads the team in interceptions (six), plays free safety which likely means more coverage vs. the heavily targeted Travis Kelce, and could be targeted more by Mahomes due to the other skills of the cornerbacks.
Corners Slay and James Bradberry both rank in the Top 10 in coverage at their position, per Pro Football Focus, which could lead Mahomes to take more shots vs. the safeties. Slay might be the best takeaway DB on the Eagles, but I’ll happily take more opportunities which is something interception bettors might not be looking at specifically when targeting these markets.
Gardner-Johnson is my favorite target at +725 (0.55 units to win nearly 4.0u) but I’m also happy to throw down 0.22 units on fellow safety Marcus Epps at +925 to win 2.04u. It’s a low-risk, high-reward market and I think there are some things here that aren’t being priced in.
Finally, let’s not overlook the motivation factor here as the defensive back will be a free agent this spring and will be looking to get paid.
The combination of Mahomes' injury, the Eagles' pass rush, the health of the KC receivers, and possibly Andy Reid's game plan in who to target on this defense has me looking at the big plus-odds market of player interceptions.