One of the quickest bets to settle for Super Bowl predictions has also become one of the highest-handle prop bets from oddsmakers: whether or not the opening kickoff will result in a touchback.
The markets for this prop have been wild over the last two years and once Pat McAfee mentions the kicking conditions to his massive audience, the markets will react. However, a lot has changed this year in the kicking game and it's being reflected in the current Super Bowl odds.
We continue to explore the Super Bowl prop bet market for you here and break down the opening kickoff as part of our Chiefs vs. 49ers predictions and NFL picks for Super Bowl 58 on Sunday, February 11.
Best Super Bowl opening kickoff odds analysis
Pricing
First things first, let’s shop around and see if any great prices could make this YES/NO two-way market a little easier to analyze and bet on.
Odds as of February 7, 2024
Just two years ago, this was a market that was a coin flip, and the NO was +132 in the week leading up to Super Bowl 57. In both years, the NO took a lot of money, but I suspect a lot had to do with McAfee and his take on the prop, which I'll explain in detail below.
This week, the YES has moved from -300 to -320 at bet365, so it seems the betting market is back on the YES wagon, which has been incredibly profitable and likely has to do with the increased touchback rate this year.
After the amount of NO money over the last two years, which moved this to almost a coin flip, I’m very surprised to see NO at +235 and getting longer five days out and this market being live for over a week but I trust the market.
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Popularity of trends
Who doesn’t love a good trend?
Over the last 32 Super Bowls, the NO is a whopping 28-4. However, the YES has cashed in back-to-back years despite the market moving aggressively to the NO. The 87.5% trend will likely make the rounds on social media this week but let’s keep digging into the prop.
Ball type
The league uses a commemorative ball for opening kickoffs of the Super Bowl. It’s an edge that has been known for multiple years. It is heavier and harder than the standard kicking balls used around the league. Because of that, kickers have a more difficult time achieving full distance.
It’s the reason the market has been much closer in terms of price over the last couple of years and a main driver in the NO hitting at nearly 90%.
So where is this YES price coming from? The obvious answer is the new fair-catch rules on kickoffs after teams used pop-up kicks at an increased rate in 2022. But is the change in this YES price from -140 to as short as -375 this year priced properly?
League average and Butker vs Moody
The main reason for the heavy juice on the YES and bet365 moving even shorter this week is the increase in touchbacks this year.
The Kansas City Chiefs finished the year with a kickoff touchback percentage of 83.33%, which ranked as the ninth-best mark in football. That was up 17.49 points from last year’s 65.81% from the same kicker.
The San Francisco 49ers also saw an increase of 18.04 points in its kickoff touchback percentage, going from 44.35% last year (28th) to 62.39% this year (25th). The league median finished at 76.30%.
Only three teams didn’t have better kickoff touchback numbers than last year and the average increase was about 15 points to just over 75%.
It’s safe to say the significant increase in touchbacks across the league is why bettors are seeing -300 YES odds as -300 has an implied probability of 75%.
Six of the Top 10 teams in kickoff touchback percentage are also indoor teams while another is Denver. Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker has had just four indoor games and had four touchbacks on five kicks at Allegiant Stadium this year vs. Vegas. If you have the YES, you want Butker kicking first.
If you’re on the NO, you want the 49ers' Jake Moody kicking. He has a sub-63% touchback percentage but did go 7-for-7 vs. Detroit on the NO and 3-2 to the NO vs. Green Bay.
The YES should be priced around -300 to -400, which is about 75% to 80% with no margins.
How I bet it
Let’s assume the indoor kickoff is about 80% probable and the commemorative football drops it to 75%, which is right around -300. There is no value on the YES, especially at BetMGM’s -375.
I’d need -300 or better on the YES at my roughly 75%/25% outlook and +270 or better on the NO and I’m not getting either of them. In my opinion, this price is pretty bang on. There is some value in shopping around if you do like one side this year but I'm staying off.
If I had to bet this, it would be at BetMGM's price of +250 for the NO and I’d hope that the 49ers kicked off to begin the game, which would be the best scenario.
There are no deals here after the changes to the kicking rules have blasted the kickoff touchback percentage through the roof. That's going to have to be one stiff commemorative ball to increase the chances of the NO.
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