If you’ve made it this far in your NFL Survivor Pool, you’re a mess of nerves every Sunday. Well, get ready to really sweat this week.
Even if you played your picks right and have some heavyweights to choose from, Week 16 is bountiful with booby traps.
Eleven games have spreads of four points or fewer, and nine home teams are catching points as underdogs. Mix in late-season motivations, banged-up rosters, along with winter weather, and escaping Week 16 could be the most impressive feat for poolies this year.
Here is my favorite NFL Survivor Pool pick and the “safest” selection, according to the NFL odds.
Best survivor pool bets for Week 16
Minnesota Vikings
Houston Texans
My pick: Minnesota Vikings
Opponent: at New York Giants
Moneyline odds: -150 (60% implied win probability)
Are there better options than the Minnesota Vikings in Week 16? Oh yeah.
If you still have Houston, Buffalo, or another big favorite as an option, by all means, let it rip. But for most poolies, Week 16 is when the pickings get slim, and my siding with one of those lofty faves in Week 16 isn't really helping anyone, honestly.
Minnesota travels to MetLife Stadium to face a plucky New York Giants team that hasn’t won since October 9. The Vikings are coming off a notable win at Dallas on Sunday night and take the momentum of a two-game run into Week 16.
First-year starter J.J. McCarthy feasted on the Cowboys’ shit secondary and faces another poor pass defense from the G-Men. In fact, New York is crappy all around, allowing 27 points or more in seven of those eight straight losses.
Minnesota's biggest edge, however, is its defense. The Vikings are a Top-10 stop unit in many advanced metrics and unleash hell on rival QBs, with the most blitz-happy pass rush in the league.
Minny also runs zone coverage at a high rate, and Giants rookie QB Jaxson Dart has had trouble versus zone in his first pro go-around. Zone schemes also work well when containing dual-threat QBs like Dart, as defenders don’t turn their backs to the ball as much.
The Vikings hold little value beyond Week 16, with the two final games against Detroit and Green Bay. Those divisional foes are pushing for the playoffs in must-win meetings.
Safest pick: Houston Texans
Opponent: vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Moneyline odds: -1400 (93.33% implied win probability)
If you can still take the Houston Texans in Week 16, do so.
Houston is hunting for a playoff spot – either through the wild card or the AFC South title – and welcomes a dysfunctional Las Vegas Raiders team to H-Town this Sunday.
Las Vegas is playing in back-to-back road games and its third away tilt in four weeks, fresh from a 31-0 shutout at Philadelphia last weekend. The Raiders’ coaching staff is more concerned about updating their resumes than game planning for the Texans, with the ax hovering in Sin City.
Houston can win this on defense alone. It’s the top stop unit in the land, having allowed more than 20 points just twice in 2025. Houston’s pass rush has scored the eighth-most sacks and will likely climb that stat chart after facing a Raiders o-line allowing a league-high 54.
The Texans’ final two games come at the Chargers and at home to the Colts, with that last game potentially being a solid pool-clinching pick depending on how things trickle down for Indianapolis.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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