The New England Patriots headlined my moneyline picks last week, and they came oh so close to clinching the AFC East.
Despite their slip-up against the rival Buffalo Bills, Sunday’s primetime showcase in Baltimore presents an opportunity for Drake Maye and the AFC’s No. 2 seed to bounce back on a national stage.
I expect them to do just that in my favorite NFL picks for Week 15.
Week 16 NFL moneyline picks
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Rams vs  Seahawks |
-104 |
 Eagles vs  Commanders |
-290 |
 Packers vs  Bears |
-104 |
 Bills vs  Browns |
-620 |
 Chiefs vs  Titans |
-180 |
 Jets vs  Saints |
-210 |
 Vikings vs  Giants |
-152 |
 Chargers vs  Cowboys |
+108 |
 Buccaneers vs  Panthers |
-162 |
 Bengals vs  Dolphins |
+180 |
 Jaguars vs  Broncos |
-176 |
 Falcons vs  Cardinals |
-152 |
 Raiders vs  Texans |
-1200 |
 Steelers vs  Lions |
-335 |
 Patriots vs  Ravens |
+130 |
 49ers vs  Colts |
-295 |
Lines courtesy of FanDuel as of 12-17.
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Expert Week 16 NFL moneyline picks
Rams vs. Seahawks: Rams (-104)
Sam Darnold threw four interceptions in the Week 11 showdown between these two teams, yet Seattle came a field goal away from winning the game at the buzzer.
I’ll take the Seahawks to get revenge against a Rams team that will likely be without Davante Adams.
Eagles vs. Commanders: Eagles (-290)
A rematch of the NFC Championship will be a complete dud, as the Commanders have shut down Jayden Daniels for the remainder of the season.
Even if Daniels did suit up, the Eagles are my pick. Washington’s defense has been atrocious this season, ranking 30th in yards allowed per game, while Philly remains elite on that side of the ball.
Packers vs. Bears: Bears (-104)
Chicago fell short against Green Bay just two weeks ago, but this time around, the Packers will be without All-Pro pass rusher Micah Parsons.
Unlike Bears teams of the past, Ben Johnson’s group is built to dominate in cold weather, and I’ll take them to make it five consecutive wins at Soldier Field.
Bills vs. Browns: Bills (-620)
Josh Allen and the Bills are coming off erasing a 21-point deficit against New England.
Don’t overthink this one; they’ll prevail by double digits at the Dawg Pound.
Chiefs vs. Titans: Chiefs (-180)
Patrick Mahomes is done for the season with a torn ACL, the Chiefs are set to miss the postseason for the first time since 2014, and now journeyman QB Gardner Minshew is taking over under center.
That said, the Chiefs’ defense remains stingy under Steve Spagnuolo, and they’ll overwhelm Cam Ward amid an already rocky rookie season.
Jets vs. Saints: Saints (-210)
Vikings vs. Giants: Vikings (-152)
J.J. McCarthy boasts a 118.6 passer rating over his last two starts, and the Vikings’ defense is miles above New York’s.
Meanwhile, Jaxson Dart continues to play himself into injury trouble, and Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy scheme won’t make life any easier for the Giants' rookie.
Chargers vs. Cowboys: Chargers (+108)
I’ll let Jason Logan’s latest NFL Underdogs column do the talking, as Los Angeles’s defense has been firing on all cylinders over the last stretch:
“The Chargers aren’t just making it tough to move the chains; they’re making it dangerous. They’ve recorded 11 sacks, seven interceptions, and forced three fumbles (recovering one of those loose balls) during their three-game winning streak.”
The Cowboys couldn’t move the chains against Minnesota last week, and they’ll have an even tougher time against Jesse Minter’s stop unit, which does an elite job of preventing big plays through the air.
Buccaneers vs. Panthers: Buccaneers (-162)
Bengals vs. Dolphins: Dolphins (+180)
I was originally ready to back Cincy, but every time I watch a Joe Burrow press conference, it becomes clear just how mentally worn down he looks.
Fresh off Burrow’s two-interception performance against Baltimore, I’ll take Miami to get the better of him at home. (It's Quinn Ewers SZN!)
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Jaguars vs. Broncos: Broncos (-176)
Bo Nix is fresh off his strongest performance of the season, and the Broncos’ blitz will overwhelm a Jaguars offense that has benefited from some cupcake matchups over the past few weeks.
Denver continues to close in on its most successful regular season in a decade.
Falcons vs. Cardinals: Falcons (-152)
Arizona’s defense has now surrendered 40+ points in consecutive games.
With Kirk Cousins & Co. riding the high of a comeback win on TNF, I’ll take Atlanta to grab a win (albeit a meaningless one) in the desert.
Raiders vs. Texans: Texans (-1200)
Pete Carroll and Bill Belichick smearing their legacies in the span of a year is one of the saddest sports moments of 2025.
This Raiders team is an absolute mess, and they’ll be blown out against a Texans team that has rattled off six straight dubs.
Steelers vs. Lions: Lions (-335)
I’ll be riding with the home team, as a loss would essentially destroy the Lions’ hopes of reaching the postseason.
Detroit’s offense remains far more explosive than Pittsburgh’s, and despite the Lions’ turbulent season, they are still 5–2 inside the fast track of Ford Field.
Patriots vs. Ravens: Patriots (+130)
I’m not going to panic over New England blowing last week’s game against Buffalo.
Drake Maye had an uncharacteristically bad outing, but the Pats have yet to lose back-to-back games under Mike Vrabel. With Lamar Jackson still operating at less than 100%, I’ll grab the short road dog in primetime.
49ers vs. Colts: 49ers (-295)
Indy's defense came to play in Seattle despite missing its three best players, and you can’t take away from the fact that this roster is going to fight for Philip Rivers the rest of the way.
The problem? The Colts' 44-year-old quarterback can’t complete a pass over 10 yards.
Against a San Francisco team that has won four in a row, Indy’s tailspin will continue on MNF.
My NFL moneyline record is 140-84 this season for -1.99 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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