Top spot in the NFC is up for grabs when the Los Angeles Rams visit the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field on Thursday, December 18, and all eyes will be on the division rivals in this standalone spot.
My top NFL picks for the Matthew Stafford odds are calling for the veteran quarterback to throw for a pair of touchdowns for the 13th time this season.
Matthew Stafford prop pick
Matthew Stafford best bet: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-115 at bet365)
Make no mistake, the Seattle Seahawks send out an elite defense that’s allowed the second-fewest points per game and just 17 passing touchdowns through 14 games.
Still, Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford threw for a pair of scores in Week 11 against the Seahawks, and he also has multiple touchdown passes in 12 of 14 games this season.
Stafford also threw for a pair of touchdowns against the Mike Macdonald-led Seahawks in Week 9 last year before sitting out the season finale between the two clubs in Week 18.
Additionally, I’m expecting the Rams to attack through the air near the goal line, with Seattle allowing just four rushing touchdowns all year.
The elephant in the room is the rainy and potentially windy weather forecast for Thursday Night Football. And, while a potential concern, Stafford has 236 NFL starts under his belt, and the Seattle defense will be dealing with the same conditions.
Finally, it’ll be a bonus if Rams wide receiver Davante Adams (hamstring) suits up, and I consider his status and the weather forecast too built into the price for this prop.
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Matthew Stafford same-game parlay
Matthew Stafford Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Matthew Stafford Under 233.5 passing yards
Kyren Williams Over 8.5 receiving yards
The Seahawks have allowed an average of just 191.4 passing yards per game, and Stafford was held to 130 on 4.6 yards per attempt by Seattle in Week 11. Again, this Seattle pass defense is legit with ranks of second in both EPA per dropback, pass defense DVOA, to go along with allowing an NFL low 6.0 yards per attempt.
Seattle also has the fifth-highest pressure rate, so opposing running backs have been a frequent outlet for opponents.
The Seahawks have allowed league-high marks in receptions (80) and targets (102) to RBs, so I like Rams rusher Kyren Williams to go Over the number on Thursday Night Football.
He‘s recorded double-digit receiving yards in nine of 14 games this year, too.
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