The Thursday Night Football slate kicks off with a rivalry battle in the AFC North as the Pittsburgh Steelers square off against the Cleveland Browns.
To help you navigate the prop market for this prime-time contest, we have gathered our top Steelers vs. Browns computer picks using the Covers prop projections.
Steelers vs Browns computer picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
 Steelers |
 Browns |
|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers u21.5 completions 62% |
Deshaun Watson o174.5 passing yards 57% |
| Jaylen Warren o69.5 rushing yards 57% |
Quinshon Judkins o49.5 rushing yards 58% |
| DK Metcalf o39.5 receiving yards 59% |
Harold Fannin Jr. o39.5 receiving yards 52% |
| Jaylen Warren o24.5 receiving yards 52% |
Harold Fannin Jr. o4.5 receptions 47% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Steelers vs Browns prop analysis
Steelers computer picks
Aaron Rodgers Under 21.5 completions (62%)
Projection: 19.09 completions
Aaron Rodgers has leaned heavily on efficiency rather than raw volume in Pittsburgh's offense. Facing an aggressive Cleveland defensive front that limits time in the pocket, Rodgers is expected to focus on handoffs and quick checks rather than racking up pass attempts. Our model projects him for roughly 19 completed passes on Thursday night, creating solid value against Kalshi's current 62% listing price for the Under.
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Jaylen Warren Over 69.5 rushing yards (57%)
Projection: 75.61 rushing yards
Jaylen Warren has established himself as the engine of this Pittsburgh Steelers ground attack, consistently exploiting defensive fronts on early downs. With Pittsburgh likely keeping the ball on the ground on a short week, Warren's projected workload puts him well over 75 yards against a Browns defense that has struggled against physical runners inside the tackles. With Kalshi pricing the Over at 57%, our projections see a clear edge on the high side.
🔥 Trade Warren rushing yards now
DK Metcalf Over 39.5 receiving yards (59%)
Projection: 49.71 receiving yards
DK Metcalf remains Rodgers' primary target when pushing the ball downfield. Even with a modest overall passing game anticipated, Metcalf only needs a couple of deep catches to eclipse a line sitting at 39.5 yards. The computer model projects him closer to 50 yards.
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Jaylen Warren Over 24.5 receiving yards (52%)
Projection: 27.89 receiving yards
In addition to his rushing workload, Warren serves as a reliable safety valve when opposing pass rushes generate pressure. Cleveland's defense frequently forces opposing QBs into quick checkdowns, giving Warren ample opportunity to create yards after the catch on screens and swing passes. Our projection model expects nearly 28 yards through the air.
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Browns computer picks
Deshaun Watson Over 174.5 passing yards (57%)
Projection: 200.12 passing yards
Deshaun Watson's passing benchmark is set quite low at 174.5 yards. While Pittsburgh's pass rush is formidable, game-script projections indicate the Browns will need to throw enough to stay competitive in the second half, allowing Watson to surpass 200 yards through the air. That creates an advantageous gap relative to Kalshi's 57% market price on this Over.
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Quinshon Judkins Over 49.5 rushing yards (58%)
Projection: 73.78 rushing yards
Quinshon Judkins continues to operate as Cleveland's key figure on early downs. Our computer model forecasts Judkins for over 73 yards on the ground as the Browns aim to establish a balanced attack and avoid obvious passing downs against Pittsburgh's front seven. That model projection stands well clear of this line.
🔥 Trade Judkins rushing yards now
Harold Fannin Jr. Over 39.5 receiving yards (52%)
Projection: 49.75 receiving yards
Harold Fannin Jr. has emerged as a high-volume target in the middle of the field for Cleveland. Pittsburgh's defense surrenders solid yardage to opposing tight ends in zone coverage, making Fannin's 39.5 receiving-yard line a prime Over candidate, with our model projecting nearly 50 yards against Kalshi's 52% listing price.
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Harold Fannin Jr. Over 4.5 receptions (47%)
Projection: 4.91 receptions
In addition to his yardage total, Fannin's reception volume remains high in short-to-intermediate route concepts. With Watson needing quick outlets against Pittsburgh's pass rush, Fannin should see plenty of work underneath.
🔥 Trade FANNIN JR. RECEPTIONS now
More Steelers vs Browns predictions at Covers
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