The Commanders vs. Giants weather forecast has called for heavy rain and wind all week, but the latest Thursday Night Football weather report could spare these NFC East rivals from the worst storm conditions ahead of kickoff tonight at MetLife Stadium.
We can still expect rain to play a major role from the opening 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff (Prime Video), which could define the outcome between these teams after they tied earlier this season. Below, we break down the live weather updates, how it could affect both teams, and how our experts are handicapping the weather tonight in East Rutherford, N.J.
Commanders vs Giants weather forecast
The National Weather Service hourly forecast near MetLife Stadium calls for temperatures around 52 degrees at kickoff, slipping into the upper 40s later in the game. The chance of rain is 74% around kickoff and 71% later in the evening with northeast winds of 8–11 mph through 11 p.m.
Heavier showers loom over TNF
The weather report has been dismal for this game all week long with heavy rain expected in the forecast, but sports meteorologist Kevin Roth's latest forecast is a welcome turn for both teams: some higher-resolution models bring the heaviest rain through during the afternoon, leaving scattered light-to-moderate showers during the game.
However, the NWS regional forecast still flags locally heavy downpours this afternoon and evening. There is a meaningful difference between playing through occasional showers and throwing into a downpour, so the timing of that heavier rain could have an outsized impact on whether tonight's game resembles football or mudball. We'll update throughout the afternoon on which way the forecast leans ahead of kickoff.
Wind gusts could threaten offenses, kickers
Steady winds look lighter than they did overnight, but Roth's higher-resolution forecast still shows gusts around 23–25 mph during the game. That's a bad sign for these quarterbacks and kickers tonight, as downfield throws and long field goals could be tough to come by. The rain's intensity looks more consequential than the steady wind right now, especially if those heavier showers spill over into the game, but wind remains an issue to watch.
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Commanders vs Giants weather impact
Both offenses have ways to work around these conditions. For the Commanders, that starts with Jayden Daniels' ability to escape pressure, while the Giants get a boost from Cam Skattebo's return and have a tight end who already gave Washington trouble in the rain.
Commanders offense vs Giants defense
The Commanders want to run more, but they haven't been able to consistently extend drives on the ground. They rank 11th in rushing yards per game (118.2 YPG) but sit just 24th in rushing first downs (45), and they feature the NFL's worst conversion rate on third down (31.1%) with nearly half their drives ending in five or fewer plays.
A lot of that rushing success has come when Daniels creates chances with his legs. Entering tonight, 27 of his 31 carries have been scrambles with only four designed runs. I'd expect to see him on the move if rain and wind disrupt the passing game, just like he did when these teams met in Week 5 — a game that saw Daniels set season highs with nine carries for 103 yards and his only two rushing touchdowns of the year.
A rain storm would likely push the Commanders' offense into a more conservative approach in the short passing game, too. Rachaad White turned a screen into a 45-yard gain against the Rams last week, and Washington would be well served to get the ball out quick against an aggressive Giants front that relies on the NFL's third-highest blitz rate (36.1%) to compensate for a league-worst pressure rate (18.9%).
Protection remains a concern for the Commanders tonight with Nick Allegretti taking over at center for starter Lucas Patrick (concussion). Keep an eye on the snap exchange, too, especially if the rain comes down hard and Washington leans into its under-center offense to simplify the run game and play-action passing attack.
Giants offense vs Commanders defense
Skattebo's return gives the Giants a useful option if they need to rely more on the ground game. He turned 17 carries into 124 yards in his last appearance before a hamstring injury sidelined him against the Eagles. Both he and quarterback J.J. McCarthy finished the week without an injury designation, which is a good sign for the NFC East leaders tonight.
Isaiah Likely is another reason the Giants don't have to rely on deep throws. In these teams' first meeting back in Week 5, he ran 87% of his routes from the slot and finished with a season-high 11 catches for 94 yards and two touchdowns in rainy conditions. That came with Jameis Winston at quarterback, though Likely led the team with five catches last week and the lone touchdown in a 19-11 win over the Eagles.
The big-bodied tight end gives McCarthy an easy button offensively if the rain and wind make life difficult for the young QB, especially with Malik Nabers' drop issues rearing their ugly head last week in more ideal conditions. Likely has six touchdown catches this season, and Washington already knows how difficult he can be to handle inside. With Skattebo returning to this offense, too, the weather could actually play right into New York's hands.
Kicking and special teams
The first meeting ended 27-27 after a missed extra point by Drew Stevens and three missed field goals by Dominic Zvada, including a 46-yard attempt in overtime. Rain played a role that afternoon, too, with colder temperatures and a stronger steady breeze in tonight's forecast.
Heavy rain isn't ideal for either kicker, but the wind gusts are an even bigger issue for these special teams units and could force both coaches to shrink the field offensively and rely more on their punters in otherwise opportune field-goal spots. Keep an eye on these kickers in warmups: if they can't hit from 50-plus yards before the game, I'd be surprised to see them push their luck once this game kicks off.
Commanders vs Giants odds: Thursday Night Football
The Giants are 2.5-point favorites with a total of 41.5 and roughly a 55% win probability implied by the latest odds at Kalshi. We've already seen the markets react strongly to the weather forecast for Thursday Night Football, which spells opportunity for savvy traders tonight.
How to attack Thursday Night Football spread (ATS)
Our NFL expert Joe Osborne is backing Commanders +2.5 in his Commanders vs Giants prediction, and the weather is a key reason why. He trusts Washington's offense, which ranks eighth in yards per rush, to take advantage of a beleaguered Giants defense that sits 27th in yards allowed per carry — especially if the weather turns this into an ugly game.
That matchup could be the defining factor in this game if conditions render these passing games moot, and Daniels' scrambling also gives the underdogs a way to move the ball if all else fails. Skattebo's return should help the Giants' offense, too, but Osborne has more faith in the road side tonight to take advantage of these conditions.
How to attack Thursday Night Football total (O/U)
Even with the weather potentially limiting the passing game tonight, Osborne backed Over 42.5 in his Commanders vs Giants early prediction and includes Over 41.5 in his latest combo. The biggest reason centers around these teams' red-zone defenses: the Giants rank last in touchdown rate allowed, while the Commanders sit 29th by that metric.
The total has plummeted with the market focused on the weather, and that lower total leaves room for a contrarian play if these rushing attacks can take advantage, especially with the latest forecast easing the initial concerns about a torrential downpour post-kickoff. If the heaviest rain passes before kickoff, these offenses could still operate like normal, and even subpar conditions would be less of an issue once these teams reach the red zone.
Who will score a touchdown on Thursday Night Football?
With weather likely to play a role tonight, Osborne is locked in on running backs and tight ends for his best touchdown picks for Thursday Night Football. He has his eyes on Isaiah Likely to score a touchdown for the Giants as part of his TNF combo tonight, and he's also targeting Austin Ekeler to score a touchdown for the Commanders as his best standalone anytime touchdown pick.
Likely's slot usage makes him a strong pick to reach the end zone after he torched the Commanders in Week 5, and Ekeler has a chance to take advantage of the Giants' porous red-zone defense, especially if conditions force these teams to ditch dropback passing.
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Commanders vs Giants picks and predictions
- Commanders vs Giants prediction
- Commanders vs Giants early prediction
- Commanders vs Giants anytime touchdown picks
- Commanders vs Giants expert picks
- Commanders vs Giants score prediction
- Commanders vs Giants player prop projections
How to watch Commanders vs Giants
| Location | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J. |
|---|---|
| Date | Thursday, November 12 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
