It was a rough week for public darlings.
First, Taylor Swift’s new album “The Life of a Showgirl” received mixed reviews. Then, NFL favorites faceplanted for the first time this season.
But unlike Swift’s report card, which is completely subjective, the folly of football faves is easy to tally.
Point spread chalk went 5-9 straight up and against the spread last week, including a 3-6 count for faves laying more than a field goal (including Taylor’s “Wood” muse Travis Kelce and the -3.5 Chiefs on MNF).
That’s an abrupt change of course after NFL favorites started the 2025 schedule 44-18-1 SU while covering at a 53% clip.
As someone who writes a weekly column titled “NFL Underdogs”, this downswing in the fortune of NFL favorites is welcome. As for Taylor’s fate, I’ll leave the album reviews to my wife and daughter (who love it, BTW).
Much like how “TLOAS” is dividing legions of Swifties, the point spread is designed to divide NFL bettors. Here are the NFL picks and predictions on my “Wi$h Li$t” in Week 6.
Last week: 2-1 ATS
Season: 8-7 ATS (+0.1 units)
NFL Week 6 predictions and picks
Seahawks +1.5
Lions +2.5
Falcons +4.5
Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Best bet: Seattle +1.5
(-110 at DraftKings)
The Seattle Seahawks nearly overcame a slew of defensive injuries in a shootout with the Bucs, missing almost half of their starting stop unit due to ailments entering and during that Week 5 tilt.
Seattle, which still rates among the top defenses despite giving up 38 points to Tampa Bay, is hoping to have several of those starters back for this Week 6 trip to Duval County. DeMarcus Lawrence, Devon Witherspoon, and Riq Wooden received positive updates heading into this week’s practices.
Mike Macdonald’s defense, most notably the pass rush, is dominant when healthy. The Seahawks sit fourth in pass rush win rate at ESPN and generate pressure at the seventh-highest clip despite blitzing at the lowest frequency in the land.
This is a notable step up for the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have played some quality defensive competition like Houston, San Francisco, and Kansas City. However, none of the Jaguars’ foes have been as disruptive as the Seahawks, who have translated that chaos around the QB into seven interceptions.
Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence could be in for a long day on a short week. He’s historically struggled under pressure, specifically when a four-man rush is collapsing the pocket, and might not have center Robert Hainsey (hamstring) or tight end Brenton Strange (hip) after they left Monday’s game.
A sack here and an INT there gives Sam Darnold and this underrated Seahawks offense extra touches, leading me to put my faith – and money – in this short road underdog in Week 6.
Detroit Lions (+2.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
Best bet: Detroit +2.5
(-112 at DraftKings)
Having a skeleton crew at corner when Patrick Mahomes is next up on the schedule isn’t ideal, but the Detroit Lions have been here before.
The one thing going for Detroit's defense in Week 6 is that this Kansas City Chiefs playbook is getting very one-dimensional.
Kansas City doesn’t have a reliable rushing game – beyond Mahomes doing it himself – and is handing off less and less each week. Chiefs running backs combined for only 15 carries in Week 5, and when they do get touches, they’ll slam into a defense rated Top 5 in run stop.
The Lions’ pass rush, which sits No. 2 at PFF, will also try to limit the exposure of a short-handed secondary.
Detroit has been extremely disruptive during this four-game winning streak, recording 16 total sacks and nine takeaways. The Lions have also been surefire tacklers, allowing the fourth-fewest yards after the catch – an area the Chiefs depend on to move the chains.
Detroit overcame a rash of defensive gaps in the home stretch of 2024, turning to the offense to keep the club competitive. And considering the Lions have stacked 161 points the past four weeks, the offense can help out a little on Sunday Night Football.
Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons (+4.5)
Best bet: Atlanta +4.5
(-115 at DraftKings)
Last week, I explained the underrated importance of the 4-point spread. The current market for this Monday matchup sits between the Atlanta Falcons +3.5 and +4.5. I’m going to lay an extra five cents to get the hook on the home pup.
Atlanta is coming off a bye before hosting the Buffalo Bills in Week 6. Not only does that give the Falcons time to heal up and get guys like CB A.J. Terrell Jr. and WR Darnell Mooney back, but the team can review the first four weeks and tighten the bolts before this big game.
Atlanta was already making progress on offense in Week 4, moving offensive coordinator Zac Robinson from the booth to the sideline. That helped with communication and timing, boosting this attack to its best performance of the season. The Falcons hung 435 yards and 34 points on Washington, getting excellent balance between the pass and run.
Speaking of the run game, that could be Atlanta’s biggest weapon against the Bills. The twin-engine rushing attack of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier fuels a playbook utilizing the run at the sixth-highest rate while ranking No. 9 in PFF grading on the ground.
Buffalo has been beaten up by opposing rushing attacks all season, sitting near the bottom of the NFL in many run-stopping metrics. The Bills are giving up 5.6 yards per carry, and injuries to the front seven are stacking up with LBs Matt Milano and Dorian Williams nursing ailments, and DT Ed Oliver still sidelined.
We’ve watched lesser offenses than Atlanta, like Miami and New Orleans, hang around due to their success with the run. The Falcons have an opportunity to take the air out of the ball and dominate possession, like they did against Tampa, Minnesota, and Washington (34:15, 35:12, and 36:32 TOP). Atlanta sits right behind the Bills for the highest average TOP and can make Josh Allen a spectator for the majority of this game.
My NFL Underdogs column is 8-7 this season for +0.1 units.
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