The point spread may say the Kansas City Chiefs are favorites but with a 2-3 record and the mighty Detroit Lions coming to town, Patrick Mahomes & Co. are taking on an underdog mentality for Sunday Night Football.
Kansas City can ill afford another loss and will rely on Mahomes to ensure that doesn’t happen. With the total for this Week 6 marquee matchup ticking up, I’m forecasting a busy night for Mahomes.
He’s the focus of my Lions vs. Chiefs predictions and NFL picks below.
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Lions vs Chiefs prediction
Lions vs Chiefs Best bet: Patrick Mahomes Over 35.5 pass attempts (-138)
The Over/Under for Sunday Night Football opened as low as 48.5 points last Sunday night. Since then, the total has rapidly climbed to as high as 52.5.
That massive adjustment doesn’t just reflect the offensive firepower on the field for both sides, but also a patchwork secondary for the Detroit Lions.
The Lions head to Arrowhead Stadium missing top corners Terrion Arnold and D.J. Reed, while also possibly playing without safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph — both limited with knee injuries.
Detroit’s pass defense has caught a break the past two games. The Lions took on the likes of Jake Browning and Joe Flacco — a far cry from Mahomes — but did show weakness against quality QBs earlier in the season, well before these injuries mounted.
As for Patrick Mahomes, he’s having to do it all for the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are getting nothing from the rushing game, outside of QB scrambles, and that’s left the future Hall of Famer to drop back at the eighth-highest rate.
Mahomes has attempted 37+ passes in four of his first five games, including a season-high 41 attempts in the road loss to the Jaguars on Monday. Projections for Week 6 have Mahomes throwing between 34 and 40 passes, with the majority of those models above the 35.5-attempt prop total.
Given Detroit’s depleted secondary, the lack of pop from the Chiefs’ ground game, and a game script calling for a shootout, I’m leaning toward the high side of those forecasts.
Lions vs Chiefs SNF same-game parlay
Kansas City has to brace for this Lions offense on a short week. Detroit can gash this soft Chiefs run stop defense and won’t miss in the red zone.
If Kansas City is going to compete, it needs Mahomes to work his magic. He’s going to be passing plenty and will connect for two or more touchdown passes Sunday night.
David Montgomery gets his share of RZ carries and can roll a Chiefs run stop rated among the bottom of the NFL.
Lions vs Chiefs SGP
- Lions +2.5
- Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
- David Montgomery anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: Hollywood finds paydirt!
Hollywood Brown is a home run threat and will get red zone targets.
Lions vs Chiefs SGP
- Lions +2.5
- Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
- David Montgomery anytime touchdown
- Hollywood Brown anytime touchdown
Lions vs Chiefs odds
- Spread: Detroit +2.5 | Kansas City -2.5
- Moneyline: Detroit +115 | Kansas City -135
- Over/Under: Over 52.5 | Under 52.5
Lions vs Chiefs betting trend to know
The Lions are 22-10 ATS as an underdog under coach Dan Campbell, including 3-0 ATS when getting less than a field goal. Find more NFL betting trends for Lions vs. Chiefs.
How to watch Lions vs Chiefs
| Location | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Sunday, October 12, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
Lions vs Chiefs latest injuries
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