The New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints meet this Sunday in New Orleans, with the hosts seeking their second victory of the season.
The Patriots are on a two-game winning streak and are just one win behind the Bills in their division. Our picks are expecting the Patriots to win and cover the spread.
Don’t miss our Patriots vs. Saints predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, October 12.
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Patriots vs Saints prediction
Patriots vs Saints Best bet: New England Patriots -3.5 (-105)
The New England Patriots have had some confusing results this season. Defeats to the Steelers and the Raiders highlighted their weaknesses, yet they took the Panthers apart two weeks ago. Last weekend, they found a way to come through when it mattered and take down the Bills.
That win puts them just one win behind the Bills in the AFC East, and they should secure another win and cover against the New Orleans Saints on Sunday.
The Patriots have shown real bravery on the road this season, winning and covering in both trips, at Highmark Stadium and at the Hard Rock.
What’s really shining through in these opening weeks is the offense and the improvements that are being seen every week.
They are sandwiched between the Broncos and Eagles in offensive DVOA, which really shows how they’ve improved, and is also nine spots higher than Sunday’s opponents.
It’s also worth noting that while their defense isn’t amongst the elite, they again outrank the Saints in defensive DVOA, even though they’re allowing almost identical scrimmage yards per game, 327.8 to New Orleans’ 326.2.
The Saints have played three games on their home field this season. They have just one victory and have only covered once.
There’s some talent on the Saints roster, but they’re missing an elite quarterback, and while Drake Maye isn’t one yet, he’s ascending and should be the difference maker that sees the Patriots cover in three straight road games.
Patriots vs Saints same-game parlay
In addition to our best bet, we’re going to back Drake Maye to pass for over 232.5 yards. It’s a number that Maye has hit in three of five games this season, and with him improving each week, we’re set to see the Patriots continue to run the offense through his arm.
For our final leg, we’re taking Hunter Henry to find the endzone. The Patriots' tight end has scored three times so far this season, but gets a lot of volume with 28 targets so far, while also leading the Patriots in red zone targets with seven, compared to four for his nearest competition.
Patriots vs Saints SGP
- Patriots -3.5
- Drake Maye Over 232.5 passing yards
- Hunter Henry anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: Ole' Olave!
Our big-ticket same-game parlay adds two further legs. The first of which is for Kendre Miller to score a touchdown. He’s scored just once this season, but has seen his role in the Saints offense grow in recent weeks, with double-digit carries in the past two games.
For our final leg, we’re taking Chris Olave to have over 57.5 receiving yards. Only six teams are giving up more passing yards per game than the Patriots, who are allowing 242.2 per game.
Patriots vs Saints SGP
- Patriots -3.5
- Drake Maye Over 232.5 passing yards
- Hunter Henry anytime touchdown
- Kendre Miller anytime touchdown
- Chris Olave Over 56.5 receiving yards
Patriots vs Saints odds
- Spread: Patriots -3 (-110) | Saints +3 (-110)
- Moneyline: Patriots -165 | Saints +140
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 (-110) | Under 45.5 (-110)
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Patriots vs Saints trend to know
The New Orleans Saints have only hit the moneyline in four of their last 20 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. Saints.
How to watch Patriots vs Saints
| Location | Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA |
| Date | Sunday, October 12, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
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